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29 Jan 2025

So many tourists flying to Japan

(The weak yen helps). It is an extraordinary country to visit by the way. Source: The long view on X

28 Jan 2025

Is it DeepSeek or $USDJPY?

… a reminder that Tech’s relative performance peaked all the way back in July when Yen first strengthened. USDJPY < 155 today is important - perhaps more so than the unknowable impact of China AI Model. @StrategasRP

23 Jan 2025

‼️The Bank of Japan is set to HIKE rates again on Friday:

The market is pricing a 90% chance that the BoJ will raise rates by 0.25% to 0.50% on Friday, the highest in 16 years. That would be the 3rd rate hike in less than 12 months, after 17 years without an increase. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg

17 Jan 2025

90% chance BOJ hikes next week.

Source: Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM on X, Bloomberg

15 Jan 2025

⚠️Bank of Japan is getting closer to deliver another rate hike:

Inflation has picked up while wages have jumped to the highest level in at least 3 DECADES. The market is pricing in about a 60% probability of a hike next week, and an 82% chance by March. Remember when in August 2024 the market flash crashed by suddenly waking up to BOJ's rate hikes? This is key to watch. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, The Daily Shot

6 Jan 2025

This is truly historic: China’s 30-year government bond yield has dropped below Japan’s 30-year yield for the first time ever.

Over the last 4 years, China’s bond yield has declined by a whopping 215 basis points. This comes as China’s economy has slowed and experienced 6 straight quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999. At the same time, Japan’s bond yield has risen 160 basis points as inflation has picked up in the country. In the past, Japan had seen 3 decades of economic stagnation and had suffered 25 years of deflation starting in the 1990s. Is China entering its own "japanification" economic phase? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Augur Infinity

31 Dec 2024

The Japanification of China: This has to be a contender for the chart of 2024 (30y bond yields).

Source: Albert Edwards

19 Dec 2024

🔈 BANK OF JAPAN JUST MADE THEIR INTEREST RATE DECISION: THEY WILL NOT BE RAISING INTEREST RATES. This is a relief for markets 👍

🚨 If Japan hiked rates, the US Dollar would weaken against the Yen. Anyone who is short the Yen then would have to sell off US equities in order to cover their short, which could've caused a decline in stocks. Most of those stocks would have been tech stocks. It also could have caused a sell off in Bitcoin as many people have borrowed against the Yen to put money into crypto. Basically it would be another edition of the Yen Carry trade which still has trillions of dollars tied into it. 😊 On a day like today, bulls really needed Japan to NOT raise rates. USD/JPY after the decision, up 0.27% Source: @amitisinvesting

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