Syz the moment

*JAPAN NOV. CORE CPI RISES 3.0% Y/Y; EST. +3.0% *US NOV. CORE CPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +3.0% This is the first time since 1977 that Japan has a higher inflation rate than the US. (Japan includes taxes in its inflation measure. The US does not.) Source: Jim Bianco

Rate hike? Yes. Market crash? No. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. Here is why the "Carry Trade Collapse" everyone feared just got cancelled (for now). The Headline: The BOJ raised rates by 25 bps to 0.75%. It was priced in, expected, and delivered with a heavy dose of "don't panic." Why the markets are rallying: The BoJ basically told the world: "We’re raising rates, but we aren't pulling the rug." Real Rates stay LOW: The BOJ explicitly stated that real interest rates will remain at significantly low levels. This is classic Financial Repression. Accommodative Stance: Even with the hike, the monetary environment remains "supportive." They are still cheering for the economy. The Stimulus Paradox: While the BOJ lifts rates, the Japanese government is simultaneously releasing a massive stimulus package. The "Risk-On" Reaction: Usually, a rate hike strengthens a currency. But today? The Yen is weakening. 📉 This is the "Green Light" for risk assets. If the Yen doesn't spike, the Yen Carry Trade doesn't unwind. The result: Equities: UP 📈 Bitcoin: UP 🚀 Bond Yields: UP 📊 (10 year ABOVE 2%) Yen: DOWN (156) The Takeaway: Governor Ueda is playing a dangerous game of balance, but for today, he’s the market's best friend. Liquidity is still flowing, the "cheap money" isn't disappearing overnight, and the global carry trade lives to see another day. Is this the "Goldilocks" scenario for the end of 2025, or is the market ignoring a looming Yen spike? Source: FinancialJuice @financialjuice SWING BLASTER 🥷🕉️🔱 @swing_blaster

Nobody knows when the real consequences will materialize, but after a prolonged period of extremely low rates, this continued shift will likely drain liquidity from markets, potentially causing a ripple effect through margin calls and other forced deleveraging. Rates will probably rise to 0.75%, which is still low by global standards. However, what matters most here is the rate of change, rather than the absolute level of rates. Higher Japanese rates = stronger yen → yen carry trade unwinds → investors sell foreign assets (U.S. Treasuries) → upward pressure on U.S. yields → global liquidity contracts Will it happen? Or is it already priced by the market? Source: Guillaume Tavares, Bitcoin Archive

Japan might have to use yield curve control again to save its bond market Source chart: The Market Ear

Over the last 2 months, the Yen has gone from 145 to 157 as a $110B+ stimulus package is coming. We are ~2% away from "intervention." Source: The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Source: The Market Ear @themarketear

You can pin most of it on a hit to exports from U.S. tariffs hammering demand. Consumer spending barely moved at 0.1% growth. Business investment held steady at 0.3%, suggesting corporate confidence hasn't completely evaporated yet. Source: StockMarket.news

And it’s coming with a major shift in strategy. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi isn’t tiptoeing around slow growth or budget pressure. She’s going all-in with: ✅ Tax cuts ✅ Help with rising utility bills ✅ Direct support to local communities — even food aid But here’s the real story 👇 Japan isn’t just trying to ease short-term pain. It’s placing massive strategic bets on the industries that will define the next decade: 💡 Artificial Intelligence 🔧 Semiconductors 🚢 Shipbuilding 🛡️ Defence & advanced manufacturing This is about future-proofing Japan’s global competitiveness — especially in Asia’s fast-moving tech ecosystem. 💼 What does this mean for investors? This stimulus could be a major tailwind for: 📈 Japanese equities 🛍️ Consumer-focused sectors 💻 Tech, AI, and semiconductor plays But there’s a twist: expect some yen volatility. With the government coordinating closely with the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low, markets will be watching every move. 🔍 The big question Will this $110B push spark sustained long-term growth — or just a short-lived burst of momentum? The world is watching closely. Because how Japan executes this plan could reshape Asia’s tech supply chains and become a blueprint for how far government spending can go in revitalizing an economy. Source: StockMarket.news