90% chance BOJ hikes next week.
Source: Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM on X, Bloomberg
⚠️Bank of Japan is getting closer to deliver another rate hike:
Inflation has picked up while wages have jumped to the highest level in at least 3 DECADES. The market is pricing in about a 60% probability of a hike next week, and an 82% chance by March. Remember when in August 2024 the market flash crashed by suddenly waking up to BOJ's rate hikes? This is key to watch. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, The Daily Shot
This is truly historic: China’s 30-year government bond yield has dropped below Japan’s 30-year yield for the first time ever.
Over the last 4 years, China’s bond yield has declined by a whopping 215 basis points. This comes as China’s economy has slowed and experienced 6 straight quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999. At the same time, Japan’s bond yield has risen 160 basis points as inflation has picked up in the country. In the past, Japan had seen 3 decades of economic stagnation and had suffered 25 years of deflation starting in the 1990s. Is China entering its own "japanification" economic phase? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Augur Infinity
The Japanification of China: This has to be a contender for the chart of 2024 (30y bond yields).
Source: Albert Edwards
🔈 BANK OF JAPAN JUST MADE THEIR INTEREST RATE DECISION: THEY WILL NOT BE RAISING INTEREST RATES. This is a relief for markets 👍
🚨 If Japan hiked rates, the US Dollar would weaken against the Yen. Anyone who is short the Yen then would have to sell off US equities in order to cover their short, which could've caused a decline in stocks. Most of those stocks would have been tech stocks. It also could have caused a sell off in Bitcoin as many people have borrowed against the Yen to put money into crypto. Basically it would be another edition of the Yen Carry trade which still has trillions of dollars tied into it. 😊 On a day like today, bulls really needed Japan to NOT raise rates. USD/JPY after the decision, up 0.27% Source: @amitisinvesting
BREAKING 🚨: Japan
Japanese Stocks $EWJ formed a Death Cross for the first time since December 2021 ☠️ The last one saw stocks enter a bear market with a plunge of more than 30%. Source: Barchart
China trades at a 40% discount to India. Is this more a China discount or an Indian premium?
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
Vision is everything...
In 1965, Singapore was forced a tiny island of 2M people forced out of Malaysia. No army. No resources. No fresh water. Then ONE man's ruthless vision built modern Asia's greatest success... Source: Great post by Oscar Hoole on X
