JUST IN 🚨: Japan's 40-year bond yield just jumped to 3.47%, its highest level in 2 decades
Source: Barchart
Japan’s economy shrank for 1st time in a year, highlighting how fragile it is—even before feeling full effects of Trump’s tariffs.
Japan’s inflation-adj GDP fell by 0.7% in Q1 annually. That’s worse than economists expected—they had predicted a smaller decline of 0.3%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Japan is cheap...
Japan's forward P/E ratio is 13.5, or a 7.4% earnings yield. That is a 609bps premium to the 1.31% yield in 10-year Japanese government bonds. For context, the S&P 500 trades for 20.6 times forward earnings, for an earnings yield of 4.87%. That is just 0.56% over 10-yr T-Notes. Source: Jeff Weniger
🚨Two nuclear powers are now at WAR, as Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes against India after India’s initial attack
➡️ India says it has targeted 9 Pakistani terror camps in Pak occupied Kashmir using standoff missile strikes as part of Operation Sindoor
JUST IN 🚨
Hong Kong Dollar Funding Cost plunges by largest amount since the Global Financial Crisis Source: Bloomberg, Barchart
Another enormous climb in the Taiwanese dollar today, up almost 8% over the last two sessions against the USD, by far the biggest two-day increase on record.
▶️ So what's going on? The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) has been surging due to a combination of economic, trade, and market factors in 2025: ✔️ Easing Trade Tensions: Speculation about reduced U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly following indications that China is open to trade talks with the U.S., has boosted optimism for Taiwan’s export-driven economy. ✔️ Strong Economic Growth: Taiwan’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 9.67% in Q1 2025, with annual growth of 5.37%, surpassing forecasts. A ✔️ Tech Sector Strength: Strong U.S. tech earnings, particularly from companies like Microsoft and Meta, have signaled sustained demand for AI and semiconductors, where Taiwan plays a critical role through companies like TSMC. This has driven foreign capital inflows and supported TWD appreciation.
Did Japan's finance minister threaten liquidation of US Treasuries?
Addressing a question on a Tokyo TV program on Friday, Japan Financial Minister Kato said the country's $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings - the highest of any foreign creditor - could be a "negotiation card" in its trade talks with Washington but "whether or not we use that card is a different decision." In other words, Japan is threatening to sell some/all of its $1.1 trillion in bonds if tariffs are imposed. NLI Research Institute said just minutes after the TV remarks, "Katsunobu Kato’s comments on US Treasuries could be interpreted as dangerously provoking the US government." He added that for the US, unstable long-term rates are a concern, and having Japan continue to hold US Treasuries is beneficial, while maintaining fiscal soundness and the dollar’s status as the reserve currency are important issues that would have positive effects in the medium to long term. Translation: chaos in the US would be painful, but it would be catastrophic for Japan. Source: www.zerohedge.com
Holy cow...
Look at the Japanese 30Y 😨 Source: TXMC on X
