BREAKING: The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved down to 2.6% in May, in-line with expectations and the lowest since March 2021.
Core PCE inflation fell to 2.6%, in-line with expectations of 2.6%. So Both headline and Core PCE inflation declined last month. Another welcomed sign by the Fed. Note that "Supercore" PCE rose by 0.1% in May, its smallest monthly increase since August 2023. Health Care (light blue) was the dominant contributor, and 5 of the main sub categories actually declined (if it wasn't for soaring health insurance costs, supercore would be negative). The Fed Funds Rate is now 2.7% above Core PCE, the most restrictive monetary policy we've seen since September 2007. Source: Charlie Bilello
The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet at the fastest pace ever:
Since April 2022, the Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by $1.71 trillion to $7.25 trillion, a 19% decline. By comparison, from 2017 to 2019 the Fed’s balance sheet runoff amounted to 16%. However, the Fed's balance sheet still stands $3.1 TRILLION above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the Fed slowed the pace of runoff from $95 billion to $60 billion a month at the beginning of June. Will the Fed's balance sheet ever reach pre-pandemic levels?
Reverse Repo has been falling off a cliff... Going from +$2300 billion to under $400 billion in just 1.5 years
Source: Game of Trades
The SNB has lowered its key rate again today, to 1.25%, after the previous 25bp cut decided in March
The view by our Chief Economist Adrien Pichoud: • Going forward, we believe that the SNB is now done with the recalibration of its monetary policy and that it shouldn’t cut rate further this year. • Swiss monetary policy can now be deemed as “neutral” for inflation and economic activity, as the real short term rate is close to 0% (actually just below with a cash rate of 1.25% and an inflation rate of 1.4%). • Provided growth remains on a gradual upward trend toward potential in 2025 (1.5%) and there is no unexpected development on the inflation front, there will be no reason for the SNB to lower further the CHF short term rate. • Should European or global developments trigger volatility and upward pressures on the CHF, we believe the SNB would rather resort to interventions on the FX market to manage the impact on the economy, rather than use the interest rate lever.
SNB Cuts Rate Again to Aid Economy and Stem Gains in CHF
The Swiss National Bank cut borrowing costs again to loosen constriction on the economy and stem gains in the franc, a move that contrasts with the hesitancy of global peers over easing.
Officials in Zurich lowered their benchmark by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Thursday after a decision that observers found hard to predict.
Source: Bloomberg
📢 📢 📢 The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Friday, but indicated it’s considering the reduction of its purchase of Japanese government bonds.
The central bank left short-term rates unchanged at between 0% to 0.1% at the end of its two-day policy meeting, as widely expected. But notably, the bank said in its statement it could reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for July 30 and 31. QE tapering in Japan has a lot more potency than in the U.S., sheerly because of how much of the bond market the BOJ owns. Following the BOJ decision, the Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 157.8 against the U.S. dollar, while the yield on 10-year JGB fell 44 basis points to 0.924. So absolutely no panic... Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
Friendly reminder that markets are always wrong about future Fed funds rate.
Source: Michel A.Arouet
After the hotter than expected Flash PMI prints yesterday, the market is pricing in one cut for this year to occur in November or December, and another in early 2025.
Source: Markets & Mayhem
