The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold.
Source: Shanghai Macro Strategist
The Fed is steadily loading up on U.S. Treasuries at a pace not seen since 2008
$237 billion in purchases since December 2025. Total holdings now sit at $4.4 trillion, the highest since July 2024. More striking: Treasuries now make up 65.9% of the Fed's total assets, the highest share since March 2008. That's a central bank stepping in to hold up a bond market under pressure from record fiscal spending. The question is how long it can keep doing it before the balance sheet becomes the story. Source: Bloomberg, Arbor Data Science
The German investment bank said it sees a scenario where central banks continue to increase their gold holdings as a financial safety net to protect themselves from Western sanctions.
These central banks have added over 225 million ounces to their reserves since the 2008 financial crisis, while their holdings of US dollars have fallen from a peak of over 60% in the early 2000s to about 40% today. Gold’s share of global central bank reserves could reach 40%, up from 30% currently, the bank predicts. At that allocation, Deutsche Bank ran a simulation that projects gold prices to hit $8,000 an ounce within five years, a near 80% rise on current levels. Source: Wall Street Mav
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.
Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money. Source: Charlie Bilello
Hawkish Hold from the BOJ Amid Rising Inflation Risks
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in a split 6–3 decision, with three members pushing for a hike to 1% as Middle East tensions raise upside inflation risks. The bank sharply revised its 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% (from 1.9%) while cutting growth expectations to 0.5% (from 1%). Markets are now pricing in 15bps of tightening by June, the yen is strengthening toward 159, and the Nikkei 225 is down around 1%, as higher oil prices threaten profits and household incomes. Source: Joumanna Nasr Bercetche (@JoumannaTV)
Warsh Senate Hearing — Key takeaways 👇
➡️ "Regime change" at the Fed: new inflation framework, revised communications, possibly fewer FOMC meetings per year. ➡️ Independence: vowed not to be Trump's "sock puppet," but declined to defend Governor Cook; said political comments on rates don't threaten Fed independence. ➡️ Dovish pivot: argues AI-driven productivity gains justify rate cuts despite 3.3% CPI. ➡️ Balance sheet is the key lever: accelerate QT, offset with lower short rates — implies a steeper curve. Confirmation at risk: Sen. Tillis (R-NC) blocking until DOJ drops Powell investigation; no clear path without him. Market read: mildly hawkish tone on the day — 10Y +4bps to 4.29%, equities turned negative intraday (but the fact that JD Vance to Pakistan for a second attempt at peace negotiations with Iran has been put on hold also explains bond yields rise and stocks pullback...) Note that prediction markets put only a 33% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Federal Reserve chair by May 15, when Jerome Powell’s term ends, according to Polymarket and Kalshi. Source: *Walter Bloomberg
Top 10 countries by gold reserves:
Source: Wall St Engine
The Federal Reserve reported an annual operating loss of $18.5 billion for 2025, marking its third straight yearly loss.
The Fed's total operating loss now stands at $210B over the past three years. Time to turn on the money printer Source: Jesse Cohen
