Syz the moment

The data may complicate the ECB’s easing plans. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

Global central banks gold reserves hit 13%, the highest in at least 3 decades. At the same time, foreign ownership of US government bonds fell to ~24%, near the lowest in 2 decades. World is embracing gold at the expense of Treasuries. Source: Global Markets Investor, Apollo

The BOJ roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. The Yen climbed as much as 0.9% on Ueda comments.

Switzerland’s central bank notched up a gain of 62.5 billion francs ($72 billion) for the first nine months of the year, it said on Thursday. Although the strong franc ate into the results, the SNB extended its profit during the July-September period. Source: Bloomberg

While the fed is still in qt mode (it has decreased the size of its balance sheet by $200B between May and September), the PBOC is in qe mode having increased its balance sheet by $560B between May and September... Ne-net liquidity is increasing. With global central banks cutting rates at the most aggressive pace since the pandemic and with the PBOC expanding the size of its balance sheet almost 3x more than the Fed is reducing it, it will be interesting to see the consequences on inflation + on gold, silver, etc. Source chart: Jeff Weniger

Depo rate to 3.25%, Main Refi to 3.4%. Guidance is unchanged: ECB to follow data-dependent, Meeting-by-Meeting approach. • Even after this third rate cut of the year, monetary policy remains restrictive in Europe, with the real short-term rate still at a level not seen over the past 15 years. Given the ongoing dynamics in economic activity and inflation, this implies that the ECB will have to continue to lower rates in the coming months, in order to bring its monetary policy to a neutral stance at minimum. Rate cuts at the coming meetings are therefore to be expected, in December and in the course of 2025. Given the worrying trend in economic activity data, an acceleration in the pace of rate cuts, with a possible 50bp cut at the December meeting, cannot be ruled out. If growth in the Eurozone stalls, a faster pace of rate cuts to remove the restrictiveness of the monetary policy, or even to move it into supportive territory, might prove to be warranted. Source chart: Bloomberg

71% of major central banks are now easing their monetary policy, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is also in line with the Financial Crisis and the 2001 recession. Source: BofA

Source: Barchart