The war with Iran has done further damage to the global dollar system.
The demise of the dollar’s dominance won’t be an overnight phenomenon, but the conflict in the Middle East is one more milestone along the way. That can be seen in central bank holdings of gold exceeding valuation-adjusted dollar reserves for the first time in the Bretton Woods II era. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.0% in February which was before the start of the Iran war.
That was the 60th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut this month and one could make a strong case for a rate hike as inflation rates are about to spike higher. Source: Charlie Bilello
US debt balance credit cards
Source: TradingView
Major central banks have withdrawn a combined 711.5 tonnes of gold reserves from the New York Fed over the past 15 years.
This total is based on publicly reported repatriation by Venezuela (160t), the Netherlands (122.5t), Germany (~300t from the US portion), and France (129t). The Bank of France recently completed its move, replacing its final 129 tonnes of US-held gold to achieve 100% domestic storage in Paris. Rather than physically shipping the bullion, BdF sold its older US bars and purchased modern standard gold in Europe between July 2025 and January 2026, generating a ~€13B ($15B) capital gain. Source: MINING.COM
Rate-change expectations for The Fed in 2026 shifted dovishly back into 'cut' territory today
Source: zerohedge
Turkey central bank reserves
Turkey’s centralbank sold or swapped roughly 60 tons of gold (over $8 billion) following the Iran conflict to secure foreign exchange or liras via swap agreements, contributing to sharp downward pressure on gold prices. Source: Augur Infinity
Swiss National Bank Signals Aggressive Currency Intervention
Amid global uncertainty, the Swiss franc surges, pressuring exports and keeping inflation at 0.1%. The SNB plans aggressive intervention: selling francs and buying foreign currencies to weaken the franc. This may trigger U.S. tensions due to past manipulation accusations and tariffs. Switzerland faces a dilemma: protect its economy or avoid political backlash, highlighting how central banks now navigate inflation, geopolitics, trade wars, and market psychology. Source: CNBC
Big week ahead for centralbanks
Source: Bloomberg
