Fed hawks/doves table latest
Source: from BofA thru ZeroHedge
When the Fed cuts interest rates within 2% of stock market all-time highs, the S&P 500 has gone on to finish higher over the next 12 months 20 out of 20 times (100% hit rate) 🚨🚨🚨
Note however that the market reaction in the 3 to 6 months is mixed Source: Carson, Barchart
This chart destroys every "gold is too expensive" argument
They were buying 20 tonnes when gold was at $3,000. Now they're buying 55 tonnes at $4,000. Source: Katusa Research @KatusaResearch
Federal Reserve expected to begin buying back an all-time high $45 billion of debt each month beginning in January 🤯👀
Source: Barchart
The Fed rate cut odds in December jumps to 95% on Polymarket.
Source: Ash Crypto
Another strong tailwind for the US economy as we head into 2026...
The price of gas at the pump has tumbled to $3.00 - the lowest since May 2021... If you add to this Fed cutting rates (and soon re-launching QE), fiscal stimulus and financial deregulation, that's a lot of stimulus! Source: Zerohedge
As shown by Jim Bianco on X, Hassett (blue) has been wildly gyrating the last 48 hours (85% to 60% to 86% to 76%).
Warsh (orange) has been trading inversely (7% to 17% to 5% to 18%). Source: Bianco Research
⚠️ The $13.5 Billion Fed Repo Operation: Ignore the Noise, Understand the Signal
The headlines are running wild, calling the massive overnight liquidity injection "The Biggest Since COVID!" and predicting the return of Quantitative Easing (QE). Here is the objective truth: ➡️ The Problem: Banks ran into simultaneous, acute, and unexpected shortfalls of overnight cash. This created an immediate, sharp spike in inter-bank borrowing rates (liquidity stress). ➡️ The Fed's Role: The Federal Reserve stepped in not as an asset purchaser (QE), but as the essential backstop. The $13.5B was a tactical operation to stabilize the overnight lending market and prevent a systemic spike in financing costs. ➡️ The Historical Precedent: This scenario is not a predictor of a new bull cycle. It happened in 2019 after Quantitative Tightening (QT) ended. It's a structural issue in the funding markets, not a macroeconomic pivot. 👉 Conclusion: This is not QE. This happened when QT ended in 2019 as well. This is a clear indication of financial plumbing stress. Treat it as a warning light within the system, signaling potential underlying friction. Source: FRED, Brett
