ECB leaves all rates unchanged as expected.
Main Refi at 4.25%, deposit rate at 3.75%. Guidance on interest rates also stays unchanged: Not pre-committing to particular path. ECB to follow data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Monetary policy monetization => 27 of 34 global central banks, or 80% are expected to ease their monetary policy by the end of 2024, the highest since 2021.
By comparison, in July 2023 just 10% of central banks were expected to cut rates. Currently, 42% of central banks have been easing monetary policy. Canada and the European Central Bank were the latest to cut interest rates in June. Meanwhile, the market is pricing the first Fed rate cut in September and a total of 2 cuts this year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
What do Serbia, Czech Republic and India have in common?
central banks are ALL accumulating gold... Source: Bloomberg, Krishan Gopaul
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.
Setting the stage for a two-day appearance on Capitol Hill this week, the central bank leader said the economy remains strong as does the labor market, despite some recent cooling. Powell cited some easing in inflation, which he said policymakers stay resolute in bringing down to their 2% goal. “At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said in prepared remarks. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.” Source: CNBC, Yusuf on X
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate, a benchmark connected to overnight repo transactions, is back to the all-time-high of 5.40% , according to New York Fed data published yesterday.
Clogged bank balance sheets are behind the spike of this key repo funding rate. This move is similar to funding market pressures seen in late-2023. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate spiked seven basis points to 5.40% on July 1, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data published Tuesday. The return of such swings in SOFR is largely thanks to the Federal Reserve, which is still removing liquidity from the system via quantitative tightening, or QT, albeit at a slower pace with the intention to reduce potential strains on the market. Still, that’s reawakened volatility around key quarter-end funding periods as seen last week, when banks tend to pare repo activity to shore up balance sheets for regulatory purposes and borrowers either find alternatives or pay up. At the same time, the glut of government debt sales means more collateral needs financing from the repo market.
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S COMMENTS (7/2/24):
1. The trend of disinflation appears to be resuming 2. Need to be more confident before reducing rates 3. Fed doesn't see 2% inflation "this year or next year" 4. Budget deficit is very large and unsustainable 5. 4% unemployment is still a very low unemployment rate 6. Moving too fast creates risk of inflation returning The Fed needs more data before rate cuts can begin. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved down to 2.6% in May, in-line with expectations and the lowest since March 2021.
Core PCE inflation fell to 2.6%, in-line with expectations of 2.6%. So Both headline and Core PCE inflation declined last month. Another welcomed sign by the Fed. Note that "Supercore" PCE rose by 0.1% in May, its smallest monthly increase since August 2023. Health Care (light blue) was the dominant contributor, and 5 of the main sub categories actually declined (if it wasn't for soaring health insurance costs, supercore would be negative). The Fed Funds Rate is now 2.7% above Core PCE, the most restrictive monetary policy we've seen since September 2007. Source: Charlie Bilello
The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet at the fastest pace ever:
Since April 2022, the Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by $1.71 trillion to $7.25 trillion, a 19% decline. By comparison, from 2017 to 2019 the Fed’s balance sheet runoff amounted to 16%. However, the Fed's balance sheet still stands $3.1 TRILLION above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the Fed slowed the pace of runoff from $95 billion to $60 billion a month at the beginning of June. Will the Fed's balance sheet ever reach pre-pandemic levels?
