THE FED WILL END QT ON DECEMBER 1ST
Moving from restrictive → supportive balance sheet policy. This is not QE, but it is definitely a positive development that provides a mild liquidity tailwind for markets. Source: Joe Consorti @JoeConsorti
🚨 HUGE Week Ahead for Global Markets! 🚨
Four major central banks. One defining week. Here’s what’s coming 👇 💵 Federal Reserve — Expected to cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, and all eyes are on what comes next for its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program. 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada — Also forecasted to trim rates by 0.25%, signaling growing concern over slowing growth. 🇪🇺 European Central Bank — Likely to hold steady, keeping the focus on inflation trends across the Eurozone. 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan — Expected to stay the course, balancing yen weakness with cautious optimism. This week could set the tone for global liquidity, currencies, and market sentiment heading into year-end. 🌍.
Yesterday we saw another $3 billion FED pump into the banking system.
The use of the facility is now a daily occurrence; the regional banking sector obviously has a liquidity issue. That's a total of $21 billion in 4 weeks. Source: The Great Martin on X
Interesting comment on X by @Andreas Steno on X about a worrying development that took place yesterday.
As financials and regionals are getting hammered with signs of stress in USD money market, the SOFR - Fed funds spread keeps widening… Maybe the Fed will be involved earlier than they think on the QT ending stuff...
LATEST: December has an 86.3% of another rates cut.
That would make it 2 rates cuts before 2026. Source: Cointelegraph, CME Fed Watch
According to CME Fed watch tool, odds of a Fed rate cut in October are now 99%...
So done deal after the poor ADP payrolls numbers...
‼️Global central banks RATE CUT RUSH:
Central banks have slashed rates 168 times over the last 12 months, the fastest pace since the 2020 crisis. This is also the third-quickest pace over the last 25 years, behind the 249 rate cuts seen in the Great Financial Crisis. Source: Global Markets Investors, BofA
FedWatch shows a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in October.
Source: CME FedWatch
