Reverse Repo has been falling off a cliff... Going from +$2300 billion to under $400 billion in just 1.5 years
Source: Game of Trades
The SNB has lowered its key rate again today, to 1.25%, after the previous 25bp cut decided in March
The view by our Chief Economist Adrien Pichoud: • Going forward, we believe that the SNB is now done with the recalibration of its monetary policy and that it shouldn’t cut rate further this year. • Swiss monetary policy can now be deemed as “neutral” for inflation and economic activity, as the real short term rate is close to 0% (actually just below with a cash rate of 1.25% and an inflation rate of 1.4%). • Provided growth remains on a gradual upward trend toward potential in 2025 (1.5%) and there is no unexpected development on the inflation front, there will be no reason for the SNB to lower further the CHF short term rate. • Should European or global developments trigger volatility and upward pressures on the CHF, we believe the SNB would rather resort to interventions on the FX market to manage the impact on the economy, rather than use the interest rate lever.
📢 📢 📢 The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Friday, but indicated it’s considering the reduction of its purchase of Japanese government bonds.
The central bank left short-term rates unchanged at between 0% to 0.1% at the end of its two-day policy meeting, as widely expected. But notably, the bank said in its statement it could reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for July 30 and 31. QE tapering in Japan has a lot more potency than in the U.S., sheerly because of how much of the bond market the BOJ owns. Following the BOJ decision, the Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 157.8 against the U.S. dollar, while the yield on 10-year JGB fell 44 basis points to 0.924. So absolutely no panic... Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
Friendly reminder that markets are always wrong about future Fed funds rate.
Source: Michel A.Arouet
After the hotter than expected Flash PMI prints yesterday, the market is pricing in one cut for this year to occur in November or December, and another in early 2025.
Source: Markets & Mayhem
While the FED monetary policy is seen as restrictive, the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index is at record highs.
Risk premia in stocks and credit are near all-time tights as commodities are breaking higher. Source: Bloomberg
Today’s inflation numbers are seen as a relief by investors… and the FED
Indeed, the just released data shows that US inflation cooled down in April for the first time in 6 months, following several reports of upside surprises. While yoy headline inflation is in-line with expectations (+3.4pct) the positive surprise came from the MoM number (+0.3pct) which is BELOW estimates (+0.4pct). Core inflation number MoM came in as expected (+0.3pct). The core yoy number (+3.6pct as expected) is at the lowest level since April 2021. Bottom-line: this report is bullish equities, bonds, gold and cryptos as it indicated that the disinflation trend might have further to go. Still, we believe that the Fed might wait for some confirmation before turning dovish. We note that the SuperCore (core ex-shelter) rose 0.5pct MoM to 5.05pct YoY. Source: CNBC
“We have to let restrictive policy do its work on inflation.”
Fed Chair Jay Powell Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
