September FOMC: odds on the Fed’s rate decision
Source: Polymarket
UPDATE:
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets see a ~93% chance of one rate cut in September 2025 (to 4.00–4.25%) and a ~92% chance of two cuts by December (to 3.50–3.75%). Source: cointelegraph
Consensus is for cuts with no recession
Source: Goldman Sachs
By FT >>> Donald Trump cannot fire Lisa Cook for now, according to a US judge, in a major win for the Federal Reserve governor fighting the president over efforts to remove her from the central bank
Jia Cobb, the federal judge presiding over the case in Washington, late on Tuesday held that Cook may not be fired while litigation is pending. “Cook has made a strong showing that her purported removal was done in violation of the Federal Reserve Act,” Cobb wrote. A provision of that act allows a president to remove a Fed governor only “for cause”, which according to Cobb would involve failing to fulfil statutory duties. The ruling will allow Cook to attend the Fed’s policy-setting committee meeting next week, when it is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time this year. It marks a setback for Trump, who last month announced he was sacking Cook for alleged mortgage fraud, amid a campaign to pressure the US central bank into lowering borrowing costs. Source: FT https://lnkd.in/exQeKfwY
The U.S. Justice Department has launched a criminal mortgage fraud probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
It has issued grand jury subpoenas out of both Georgia and Michigan, according to documents seen by Reuters and a source familiar with the matter. The investigation followed a criminal referral from Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, and is being conducted by Ed Martin, who was tapped by Attorney General Pam Bondi as a special assistant U.S. attorney to assist with mortgage fraud investigations involving public officials, along with the U.S. Attorneys' offices in the Northern District of Georgia and the Eastern District of Michigan, according to the person, who spoke anonymously since the matter is not public. Source: Reuters
🚨 Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its optimistic forecast for gold, maintaining a structural bullish view on the precious metal
The investment bank predicts gold will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 in its base case scenario, with further growth to $4,000 by mid-2026. Goldman’s analysis indicates that a recession could accelerate ETF inflows and drive prices even higher to $3,880. More dramatically, extreme risk events such as challenges to Federal Reserve independence or shifts in U.S. reserve policy could potentially catapult gold prices to $4,500 by year-end 2025. Source: www.goldsilver.com https://lnkd.in/eCau26HP
With the Fed’s reverse repo facility nearly drained, the system now leans on reserves as the main buffer.
Right now, they sit at ~$3.2T, which the Fed still calls “ample.” Governor Waller has suggested ~$2.7T is a safe floor, while Barclays sees end-September reserves sliding closer to that line. The problem? Treasury bill issuance and QT are still pulling cash out each month. With no RRP cushion left, every dollar matters more and once reserves fall into the danger zone, stress tends to show up fast in repo markets, auctions, and short-term funding. Source: StockMarket.News @_Investinq on X
The US just sold $70 billion of 5-year Treasuries.
The Bid-to-Cover ratio was 2.36. Foreign buyers pulled back but US buyers stepped up in record size. Here's the breakdown: • Foreign accounts (called “Indirects”) bought 60.5%. • Domestic institutions (called “Directs”) bought a record 30.7%. • Dealers (big banks) bought only 8.8%, the lowest ever. Now here’s the twist: even though the auction was definitely a poor one, the bond market rallied afterwards. 10-year Treasury yields actually dropped. Why? Because traders were braced for worse. “Not awful” was good enough to spark a rally. Source: StockMarket.news
