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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thoughts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 19 May 2026 - - - #### Today is officially Kevin Warsh's first day as the Fed chair. Since 1930, the US stocks benchmark has seen an average 12% drawdown in the first 3 months after a new Fed chair has been elected. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![Today is officially Kevin Warsh's first day as the Fed chair.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/9-May-19-2026-01-32-12-8792-PM.jpg) ![Today is officially Kevin Warsh's first day as the Fed chair.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/9-May-19-2026-01-32-12-8792-PM.jpg) 18 May 2026 - - - #### Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026. August of 2024 the market was expecting 10 cuts… Source: Bloomberg, RBC [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-18-2026-03-34-03-3141-PM.jpg) ![Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-18-2026-03-34-03-3141-PM.jpg) 11 May 2026 - - - #### More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial nature of these forecasts). Source: Nick Timiraos [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-May-11-2026-12-13-14-9484-PM.jpg) ![More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-May-11-2026-12-13-14-9484-PM.jpg) 8 May 2026 - - - #### The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold. Source: Shanghai Macro Strategist [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) ![The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-08-2026-03-03-54-7256-PM.jpg) ![The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-08-2026-03-03-54-7256-PM.jpg) 7 May 2026 - - - #### The Fed is steadily loading up on U.S. Treasuries at a pace not seen since 2008 $237 billion in purchases since December 2025. Total holdings now sit at $4.4 trillion, the highest since July 2024. More striking: Treasuries now make up 65.9% of the Fed's total assets, the highest share since March 2008. That's a central bank stepping in to hold up a bond market under pressure from record fiscal spending. The question is how long it can keep doing it before the balance sheet becomes the story. Source: Bloomberg, Arbor Data Science [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![The Fed is steadily loading up on U.S. Treasuries at a pace not seen since 2008](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/12-May-07-2026-03-43-29-4138-PM.jpg) ![The Fed is steadily loading up on U.S. Treasuries at a pace not seen since 2008](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/12-May-07-2026-03-43-29-4138-PM.jpg) 1 May 2026 - - - #### The German investment bank said it sees a scenario where central banks continue to increase their gold holdings as a financial safety net to protect themselves from Western sanctions. These central banks have added over 225 million ounces to their reserves since the 2008 financial crisis, while their holdings of US dollars have fallen from a peak of over 60% in the early 2000s to about 40% today. Gold’s share of global central bank reserves could reach 40%, up from 30% currently, the bank predicts. At that allocation, Deutsche Bank ran a simulation that projects gold prices to hit $8,000 an ounce within five years, a near 80% rise on current levels. Source: Wall Street Mav [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) ![The German investment bank said it sees a scenario where central banks continue to increase their gold holdings as a financial safety net to protect themselves from Western sanctions.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-May-01-2026-02-54-00-6077-PM.jpg) ![The German investment bank said it sees a scenario where central banks continue to increase their gold holdings as a financial safety net to protect themselves from Western sanctions.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-May-01-2026-02-54-00-6077-PM.jpg) 30 Apr 2026 - - - #### The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged \>4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money. Source: Charlie Bilello [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/2-Apr-30-2026-03-26-28-5907-PM.jpg) ![The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/2-Apr-30-2026-03-26-28-5907-PM.jpg) 28 Apr 2026 - - - #### Hawkish Hold from the BOJ Amid Rising Inflation Risks The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in a split 6–3 decision, with three members pushing for a hike to 1% as Middle East tensions raise upside inflation risks. The bank sharply revised its 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% (from 1.9%) while cutting growth expectations to 0.5% (from 1%). Markets are now pricing in 15bps of tightening by June, the yen is strengthening toward 159, and the Nikkei 225 is down around 1%, as higher oil prices threaten profits and household incomes. Source: Joumanna Nasr Bercetche (@JoumannaTV) [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) ![Hawkish Hold from the BOJ Amid Rising Inflation Risks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/7-Apr-28-2026-02-16-17-0940-PM.jpg) ![Hawkish Hold from the BOJ Amid Rising Inflation Risks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/7-Apr-28-2026-02-16-17-0940-PM.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/8) [7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/7) [8](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/8) [9](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/9) [10](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/10) [11](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/11) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/10) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/73?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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