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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 12 Jun 2026 - - - #### The Bank of Japan is set to HIKE RATES next week: 49 of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the BOJ to raise its key interest rate by +25 basis points to 1.0% at its June 15-16 policy meeting. This would mark the highest level since 1995 and the first time above 1.0% in more than 3 decades. The same survey shows economists expecting a further hike to 1.25% by year-end, implying 2 rate increases in 2026 alone, with ~71% expecting hikes roughly once every 6 months. This comes as the Iran war-driven energy shock has pushed Japanese inflation risks higher, with 60% of survey respondents flagging a rising risk of the BOJ falling behind the curve in fighting inflation. The BOJ's decision on its government bond purchase reduction program will also be closely watched, with the majority of analysts expecting the central bank to slow or pause its tapering from April 2027. The Bank of Japan is gradually closing the gap with other major central banks. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![The Bank of Japan is set to HIKE RATES next week:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/9-Jun-12-2026-01-48-44-9336-PM.jpg) ![The Bank of Japan is set to HIKE RATES next week:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/9-Jun-12-2026-01-48-44-9336-PM.jpg) 11 Jun 2026 - - - #### As expected, the ECB hiked rates by 25 basis points the first increase since 2023. The ECB lifted its main refinancing rate to 2.40% and its deposit facility rate to 2.25%, citing inflation pressures following an Iran conflict-driven energy shock that pushed eurozone inflation to 3.2%. The surprise move comes as the eurozone economy shows signs of weakness, with GDP contracting 0.2% in Q1. Policymakers said the hike is aimed at preventing higher energy prices from becoming embedded in broader inflation. While this may draw criticism from some given the current growth context, the Bank actually has little choice. Unlike the Fed’s dual mandate of inflation and employment, the ECB has a single mandate: price stability. Note a big jump in the ECB's 26/27 inflation forecasts, offset by a drop in GDP forecasts HICP 2026: 3.0%, from 2.6% in March HICP 2027: 2.3%, from 2.0% HICP 2028: 2.1%, from 2.0% GDP 2026: 0.8%, from 0.9% GDP 2027: 1.2%, from 1.3% GDP 2028: 1.5%, from 1.4% [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![As expected, the ECB hiked rates by 25 basis points the first increase since 2023.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-11-2026-03-37-46-9571-PM.jpg) ![As expected, the ECB hiked rates by 25 basis points the first increase since 2023.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-11-2026-03-37-46-9571-PM.jpg) 28 May 2026 - - - #### In case you haven't noticed, there is just a tad excess liquidity out there... SOFR – FF is the spread between two key US short-term rates: 1/ SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate): the rate at which financial institutions borrow cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasuries (i.e. in the repo market). 2/ FF (Federal Funds rate, usually the effective fed funds rate, EFFR): the rate at which banks lend reserves to each other unsecured overnight. So the spread is secured rate minus unsecured rate. Under textbook conditions, secured borrowing is cheaper than unsecured borrowing — you're posting Treasuries as collateral, so the lender takes less risk and accepts a lower rate. That makes SOFR – FF slightly negative (typically a few basis points below zero) in calm markets. This is the "normal" state. SOFR materially below FF — usually means abundant reserves and ample cash chasing limited collateral. Cash holders accept low secured rates because they have nowhere else to put it. This is typically a sign of: - The Fed's RRP (reverse repo facility) being heavily used - QE having left the system flush - or scarcity of high-quality collateral (Treasury bills, in particular). Source: zerohedge [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![In case you haven't noticed, there is just a tad excess liquidity out there...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-May-28-2026-03-29-31-3786-PM.jpg) ![In case you haven't noticed, there is just a tad excess liquidity out there...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-May-28-2026-03-29-31-3786-PM.jpg) 20 May 2026 - - - #### History has been kind to Fed Chairs in their first year. Besides Greenspan, who got handed Black Monday... Source: TrendSpider [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![History has been kind to Fed Chairs in their first year. Besides Greenspan, who got handed Black Monday...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-May-20-2026-01-21-21-0429-PM.jpg) ![History has been kind to Fed Chairs in their first year. Besides Greenspan, who got handed Black Monday...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-May-20-2026-01-21-21-0429-PM.jpg) 19 May 2026 - - - #### Today is officially Kevin Warsh's first day as the Fed chair. Since 1930, the US stocks benchmark has seen an average 12% drawdown in the first 3 months after a new Fed chair has been elected. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![Today is officially Kevin Warsh's first day as the Fed chair.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/9-May-19-2026-01-32-12-8792-PM.jpg) ![Today is officially Kevin Warsh's first day as the Fed chair.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/9-May-19-2026-01-32-12-8792-PM.jpg) 18 May 2026 - - - #### Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026. August of 2024 the market was expecting 10 cuts… Source: Bloomberg, RBC [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-18-2026-03-34-03-3141-PM.jpg) ![Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-18-2026-03-34-03-3141-PM.jpg) 11 May 2026 - - - #### More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial nature of these forecasts). Source: Nick Timiraos [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-May-11-2026-12-13-14-9484-PM.jpg) ![More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-May-11-2026-12-13-14-9484-PM.jpg) 8 May 2026 - - - #### The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold. Source: Shanghai Macro Strategist [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) ![The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-08-2026-03-03-54-7256-PM.jpg) ![The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-May-08-2026-03-03-54-7256-PM.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/8) [7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/7) [8](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/8) [9](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/9) [10](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/10) [11](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/11) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/10) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/74?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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