A number of Central Banks have begun to add gold to their reserves since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Chart from Alpine Macro. According to the IMF there is about $12 trillion of currency reserves held globally. That is nearly the market value of the gold stock, but according to Alpine Macro only about $3 trillion of gold is potentially available for central banks to purchase. While other factors need to be taken into account, Central banks buying is likely creating a supply/demand imbalance. Source: Crit Thomas, Alpine Macro
Could an ECB rate cut change reverse this trend?
It might not be enough to offset some of teh structural issues the old continent is facing (overregulation, demographics, lack of tech innovation and energy dependence among others). Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
BREAKING >>> ECB rates unchanged as expected but ECB gives quite explicit indication of coming rate cut in June - unless they are surprised. No rate cut size given.
Note also a Critical Change In The ECB's Language (UBS): "The ECB noted that wage pressures are moderating and those wage gains there are, are tending to be absorbed by companies in their profits. That is something ECB President Lagarde said a month ago was a prerequisite – indeed it was a worrisome signal as far as equity was concerned, specifically requiring lower profit margins. But contrast today's wording with last month's: that inflation remained high because in part of high wages. So, having set up a margin squeeze on wage absorption as a critical requirement, Lagarde should draw attention to that in the press conference". The first indication out of today’s ECB governing body meeting is consistent with President Lagarde’s previous statment that the Eurozone’s central bank is not “Fed dependent.” Source: Piet Haines Christiansen
The Federal Reserve's next move might be to raise interest rates warns Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
Source: Barchart
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has a real problem now as USDJPY surged up to 153 - a fresh 34-year-low for the yen against the dollar and below the level at which the BoJ last intervened...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Raoul Pal - Global Macro Investors (GMI) has shared this chart on X showing Global liquidity growing at a CAGR of 8%.
His view: "While everyone is worried about 3.5% inflation, the real issue is the ongoing 8% per annum debasement of currency, on top of inflation. Your hurdle rate to break even is around 12%, which is the 10-year average returns of the S&P 500...just to keep your purchasing power". Key takeaway: if you want to protect your purchasing power in a global monetary debasement, you have 3 choices: 1/ spend; 2/ invest into risk assets; 3/ invest into store of values
BREAKING: Interest rate futures are now pricing in just 2 interest rate cuts for the entire 2024.
This is the first time that markets are pricing-in LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance. Just 4 months ago, markets saw 6-8 rate cuts in 2024 with cuts beginning in March. Odds of a rate cut in June are down from ~60% before the CPI report to ~22% now. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
Nice chart by BofA showing central bank gold purchases from 2020-2023
Thru Ronnie Stoeferle
