So what's going on in markets this morning? Why are Cryptos tumbling again?
A ris-off signal to start December? Well, it seems that the spike in Japanese bonds yields is the culprit... Indeed, Japanese bonds are puking on renewed expectations of rate hike, as the 2Yr JGB yield is above 1% for the first time since 2008. The yen is firming and the Nikkei 225 index is tumbling. And since nowadays Bitcoin always correlates with anything that's down, we have a 5% dump in Bitcoin in Asian trading to $85k.... In the middle of Asian session, BoJ Governor Ueda said he was consider the "pros and cons" of raising interest rates at the BoJ's December and idea that the market got hold of last week as the odds of a BoJ Dec rate hike increased from 30% to 50%. Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge
As a remainder, The FED ends QT tomorrow !
For years, they've been pulling money out of the system Tomorrow, that drain stops... Source: @PaulGoldEagle
Fed Rate-cut odds for December are on the rise...
Hopes of another rate cut in December were initially boosted by Fed's Williams dovish comments on Friday and then encouraged by Goldman over the weekend. Yesterday, San Francisco Fed's Daly added to the sudden dovish pivot (from the rampant hawkish pivot mid-last week): "On the labor market, I don't feel as confident we can get ahead of it," she said in an interview on Monday. "It's vulnerable enough now that the risk is it'll have a nonlinear change." An inflation breakout, by contrast, is a lower risk given how tariff-driven cost increases have been more muted than anticipated earlier this year, she said. Daly's comments pushed the odds of a December cut back above 80%... Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
Powell tenure has been marked by few dissents... until now.
Dissenting votes have ticked up in recent months after being somewhat rare. Source: Bloomberg, RBC
Fed Williams's speech this morning dramatically changed the outlook for the December 10 FOMC meeting.
As highlighted by Jim Bianco, the current tally looks like this: * 5 Voters have strongly signaled they do not want to cut rates next month (Barr, Musalem, Schmid, Goolsbee, Collins) * 5 Voters signaled they want to cut rates (Miran, Waller, Bowman, Williams, Cook) * 2 Voters are unknown (Powell and Jefferson) If the Fed is truly becoming independent, then it should be a 7-5 vote ... either way. Time will tell...
Reaction to the release of the FOMC minutes: the probability of a rate cut is down to less than 30%...
➡️ Many participants stated that it would be appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the rest of the year, in line with their expectations. 📌 Most participants supported the October rate cut, while some said they would not support any changes. 📌Almost all participants stated that ending the balance sheet reduction program on December 1st would be appropriate. 📌Many participants said a December cut would be appropriate. 📌Many participants noted the possibility of a disorderly decline in stock prices, particularly if expectations regarding artificial intelligence were suddenly reassessed. 📌Most participants preferred the Fed's portfolio to match the composition of its outstanding Treasury bonds. 📌Some participants preferred a larger proportion of Treasury bonds, stating that it provided more flexibility. 📌Many participants believed the December rate cut was inappropriate. The Fed's economic outlook, released at its October meeting, suggests that real GDP growth through 2028 will be slightly stronger than the September forecast Source: Bianco Research, @EcoPulseStreet
Reserves are in deep "scarce" territory with reverses zero.
But reserves would go back to "ample" once $300BN in Treasury cash is drained in a few days. Source: zerohedge
Very interesting to see money supply expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting.
What will happen once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again? Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
