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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 1 Jul 2026 - - - #### Gold allocations are at multi-decade highs, and they're still tiny. Private investors hold just 2.7% of financial assets in gold. In 1980 it was 8.3%. Central banks sit at 26.6% versus 62.4% back then. Source: Incrementum AG, Jack Prandelli on X [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![Gold allocations are at multi-decade highs, and they're still tiny.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jul-01-2026-02-56-13-0158-PM.jpg) ![Gold allocations are at multi-decade highs, and they're still tiny.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jul-01-2026-02-56-13-0158-PM.jpg) 19 Jun 2026 - - - #### What a turnaround for Fed rates expectations (as implied by Futures). From projecting 6 cuts in September to 2 hikes now Note that it didn't prevent equities to surge... Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![What a turnaround for Fed rates expectations (as implied by Futures). From projecting 6 cuts in September to 2 hikes now](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/6-Jun-19-2026-02-20-41-1362-PM.jpg) ![What a turnaround for Fed rates expectations (as implied by Futures). From projecting 6 cuts in September to 2 hikes now](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/6-Jun-19-2026-02-20-41-1362-PM.jpg) 19 Jun 2026 - - - #### There is now a 38% chance of a rate hike at the July FOMC and a 0% chance of a rate cut Source: Barchart [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![There is now a 38% chance of a rate hike at the July FOMC and a 0% chance of a rate cut](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/2-Jun-19-2026-02-17-13-6053-PM.jpg) ![There is now a 38% chance of a rate hike at the July FOMC and a 0% chance of a rate cut](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/2-Jun-19-2026-02-17-13-6053-PM.jpg) 18 Jun 2026 - - - #### The S&P 500 has fallen under every single new Fed chair in their first 90 days. Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting today. The historical data goes back nearly a century across 12 Fed chairs. The average drawdown in the first three months of a new Fed chair is -12%. The worst was Alan Greenspan at -33%. The best was Ben Bernanke at -2%. Jerome Powell's first 90 days saw a -7% drawdown. Janet Yellen's saw -4%. Not one single new Fed chair has avoided a drawdown in their first three months. Warsh's 90-day clock starts today. Source: Bull Theory [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![The S&P 500 has fallen under every single new Fed chair in their first 90 days.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/10-Jun-18-2026-02-29-32-1918-PM.jpg) ![The S&P 500 has fallen under every single new Fed chair in their first 90 days.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/10-Jun-18-2026-02-29-32-1918-PM.jpg) 18 Jun 2026 - - - #### Big shift in Fed dot plots with the median member now forecasting 1 rate HIKE this year when previously they were forecasting 1 rate CUT. (Clone) The stock market may not like it but this is the right move if the Fed wants to regain any credibility as an inflation fighter. Source: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Big shift in Fed dot plots with the median member now forecasting 1 rate HIKE this year when previously they were forecasting 1 rate CUT. (Clone)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-18-2026-02-04-07-9905-PM.jpg) ![Big shift in Fed dot plots with the median member now forecasting 1 rate HIKE this year when previously they were forecasting 1 rate CUT. (Clone)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-18-2026-02-04-07-9905-PM.jpg) 18 Jun 2026 - - - #### Kevin Warsh just chaired his first FOMC meeting. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% (unanimous). No surprise there. The surprise was everything around it. 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝗻𝗲. Under Powell, the Fed told markets what was coming. Warsh refused. The dots, he said, are written "in pencil." He didn't even submit his own forecast. 𝗔 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁. He pledged to "fix five years of misses on inflation" — a rare, direct critique of the prior Fed. The 2% target stays. The closing line, repeated all conference: "The Committee will deliver price stability." 𝗔 𝗵𝗮𝘄𝗸𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗱𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁. 9 of 18 officials now see at least one HIKE by end-2026 — and 6 of them see multiple. Just one sees a cut. 𝗙𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘁𝗮𝘀𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀. Communications, the balance sheet, data, productivity & jobs, and inflation frameworks — everything under review except the 2% target. Deliverables possible by year-end. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? ~$1.5 trillion erased across equities, metals and crypto in 10 minutes — with NO rate change. S&P 500 −1.2% • Nasdaq −1.35% • Gold −2.22% • Silver −3.95% • Bitcoin −1.8% The takeaway: this was a hawkish shock delivered through tone, not action. A Fed that stops pre-announcing its moves is a Fed that just reintroduced volatility as a feature, not a bug. The Powell put on certainty is over. Markets are still repricing what that means. What's your read — disciplined return to price stability, or a communication vacuum that markets will punish? [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![Kevin Warsh just chaired his first FOMC meeting. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% (unanimous). No surprise there. The surprise was everything around it.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-06-18%20161540.png) ![Kevin Warsh just chaired his first FOMC meeting. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% (unanimous). No surprise there. The surprise was everything around it.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-06-18%20161540.png) 16 Jun 2026 - - - #### “These forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn’t be perfect either, so I wouldn’t give them.” Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has spent 15 years arguing the central bank says too much. Wednesday is his first meeting. My story on the quiet revolution he wants: Source: Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos [#Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) ![“These forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn’t be perfect either, so I wouldn’t give them.”](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-Jun-16-2026-02-40-53-3589-PM.jpg) ![“These forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn’t be perfect either, so I wouldn’t give them.”](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-Jun-16-2026-02-40-53-3589-PM.jpg) 15 Jun 2026 - - - #### Swiss National Bank's $173B Portfolio Source: The Market Mind [#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Swiss National Bank's $173B Portfolio](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-15-2026-12-03-29-4513-PM.jpg) ![Swiss National Bank's $173B Portfolio](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jun-15-2026-12-03-29-4513-PM.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/7) [6](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/6) [7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/7) [8](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/8) [9](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/9) [10](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/10) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/9) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks/page/74?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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