‼️Global central banks RATE CUT RUSH:
Central banks have slashed rates 168 times over the last 12 months, the fastest pace since the 2020 crisis. This is also the third-quickest pace over the last 25 years, behind the 249 rate cuts seen in the Great Financial Crisis. Source: Global Markets Investors, BofA
FedWatch shows a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in October.
Source: CME FedWatch
Very interesting FT article "Economists favour Christopher Waller to lead Fed but expect Trump to pick a loyalist"
>>> https://lnkd.in/ewBs4dUv Academic economists overwhelmingly want Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller to succeed Jay Powell as chair of the central bank next year — but few think he will get the job. In a FT poll, 82% of the economists surveyed chose Waller as their favourite to Fed Chair. However, just a fifth of the academics polled think he will succeed Powell in 2026. Instead, Kevin Hassett is seen as the man most likely to head the Fed. The split between who economists want to get the job and who they think will become the next chair reflects the fierce pressure the Fed has come under from US President Donald Trump.
Maybe not a bad idea...
From Bloomberg
Central Banks are buying MASSIVE amounts of gold:
In July, world central banks acquired 48 tonnes of gold, above 2024 figures, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. Year-to-date, central banks have bought an average of 64 tonnes of gold per month. Gold demand is strong. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
The odds of an October rate cut have jumped to 94% 🚨🚨🚨
Source: CME Fed Watch tool, Barchart
The Fed has cut rates by 25bps 47 times since 2000
Here’s how $SPY usually reacted the next week, month, quarter, and year. Source: Trend Spider
BREAKING: The Bank of Japan announced that it will leave its benchmark interest rate on hold
The decision was widely expected amid political uncertainty stemming from the resignation of PM Shigeru Ishiba. BUT HERE'S THE BIG NEWS: The Bank of Japan has decided to begin SELLING its ETF holdings. The BOJ is the largest shareholder of ~70% of large listed stocks in Japan; if it really does this, it will put downside pressure on Japanese stocks. The planned pace of sales is based on an annual book value of ¥330 billion. As of June 2025, the BOJ’s ETF balance stood at a book value of ¥37.1861 trillion. The stock market is already asking the BOJ: “are you sure bro?” - see chart below. Best of luck to the BOJ plan to sell stocks when the BOJ IS THE MARKET.
