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20 Feb 2024

📉 China Yields Staying Stuck at Historic Lows as PBOC Slashes Mortgage Reference Rate!

China has taken bold measures to uplift its struggling property sector by implementing its most substantial reduction in a key mortgage rate to date. The five-year loan prime rate saw a notable cut of 25 basis points, plummeting to a historic low of 3.95%. This move, the largest decrease since the rate's overhaul in 2019, underscores China's commitment to stimulating economic growth through targeted measures. The decision to lower the mortgage reference rate is poised to have far-reaching effects, potentially unlocking opportunities for further economic support initiatives. By enabling more cities to lower their minimum mortgage rates, the rate cut aims to revitalize demand in the sluggish housing market. Moreover, it seeks to address the persistent property crisis, which has cast a shadow on overall economic growth. However, despite these efforts, it is not expected that the rate cut will significantly boost homebuyers' sentiment as home prices are still falling in most cities and wage growth is tepid. Following cut's announcement, market response was subdued, with equities and USDCNH experiencing minimal changes, while 10Y onshore government bond yields saw only slight decreases. How will China emerge from this slow economic agony? Source: Bloomberg

19 Feb 2024

Six weeks into 2024, the bond market is struggling ... again.

YTD total return (through Feb 16) of the Bloomberg Agg Bond Index is -2.04% (blue line). Only 1980, 2018, and 2022 had a worse start. (Data started in 1976, so this is the 49th year of data). Source: Jim Bianco, Bianco Research

14 Feb 2024

📉 UK Inflation Remains Stable, Easing Pressure on BoE!

UK inflation remained weaker than anticipated in January, holding steady at 4% year-on-year, defying forecasts of a rise to 4.1%. This unexpected outcome suggests reduced pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) from underlying price increases. Notably, services inflation reached 6.5%, slightly below the BoE's projections. Despite the stable headline rates, the BoE remains cautious amidst labor market tightness and signs of economic recovery. As a result, traders have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, now anticipating two cuts for the year, with the first expected in September. However, amidst this cautious sentiment, the UK bond market could emerge as an attractive opportunity. Expected decreases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) signal potential inflationary relief, supporting the case for Bank of England rate cuts by mid-2024. Furthermore, appealing yields following recent market pullbacks add to the attractiveness of the UK bond market as an investment avenue. It's worth noting that the market does not anticipate a rate cut until the first half of 2024, providing investors with ample time to position themselves strategically. #UKInflation #BankOfEngland #InvestmentOpportunity #BondMarket #EconomicOutlook

7 Feb 2024

The bond-stock correlation is crashing to its lowest level in months...


5 Feb 2024

China 10Y yield moves below 2.47%, breaking Covid19 lockdown lows.

China 10Y yield moves below 2.47%, breaking Covid19 lockdown lows. With local equity market imploding and real estate in freefall, fears of a Japanese style deflationary spiral are growing. Should China devalue the renminbi ? Chart vy Sylvain Baude, CFA, Bloomberg

5 Feb 2024

Something to keep in mind...

Source. Michel A.Arouet

5 Feb 2024

🇹🇷 A Surprise Resignation at the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) 🌟

Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan's sudden resignation from the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has stirred questions about its impact on monetary policy and financial markets. Erkan, who made history as the first woman to lead the CBT, took office less than eight months ago with a mandate to adopt a more orthodox monetary policy. She swiftly raised the benchmark interest rate to 45% to combat soaring inflation. Following Erkan's exit, her deputy, Fatih Karahan, assumed leadership. With experience from the New York Federal Reserve and Amazon, Karahan is expected to maintain a strict monetary stance. He affirmed a commitment to monetary tightening until inflation aligns with the CBT's goals. This transition arrives amid high consumer price inflation, expected to remain around 65% for January. Karahan's appointment underscores the nation's policy continuity and commitment to economic stability through orthodox monetary measures. As financial markets react, we'll closely watch the CBT's policy decisions under Governor Karahan's leadership and their impact on the Turkish economy. 🇹🇷📈 Source: Bloomberg #CBT #TurkeyEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #MarketImpact

1 Feb 2024

Bank of England day ! A Shift in Inflation Outlook and Monetary Policy?

💡 Today, the Bank of England (BOE) is convening for its highly anticipated meeting, and we're closely monitoring it for potential shifts in their monetary policy tone. The BOE's impending Monetary Policy Committee decision promises to be intriguing, with current expectations leaning towards maintaining the benchmark rate at 5.25%. 📉 Indeed, a significant twist in the narrative has occurred. The UK's inflation outlook has undergone a substantial revision, with current projections indicating a return to the 2% inflation target by the summer of 2024 – a whole year earlier than previously anticipated. This could have far-reaching implications. 📊 Adding to the intrigue is the possibility of a single vote in favor of a rate cut and a potential softening of the BOE's previous tightening stance. While the risk remains that the BOE might stick to its hawkish position, the evolving economic landscape could set the stage for an earlier easing cycle, potentially commencing as soon as June. 💬 The shifting dynamics of inflation and the subsequent responses by central banks are pivotal indicators for market movements. Fixed income investments may see considerable benefits from these potential developments.

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