Great observation by Dr. Michael Stamos, CFA - Head of Global Research & Development of Global Multi Asset Department at Allianz Global Investors
-> "On days when bonds were up, stocks tended to go up as well. When bonds fell, stocks managed to stay at least flat. Overall it was a pretty nice environment for equity investors. Lets hope this doesn't turn into a high-correlation-when-markets-are-down type of environment".
'Higher for Longer' — The Fed Fund Future Market Takes Heed!
The market has notably adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy over the coming years. Initially, an aggressive trajectory toward a terminal rate of around 3% was projected at the start of the year, indicating a return to a Neutral rate adjusted for inflation. However, current forecasts now suggest a more cautious normalization, with a significantly higher terminal rate of 4%. Intriguingly, the market anticipates further tightening by mid-2026, which some analysts believe could echo the inflation resurgence patterns of the 1970s. The Neutral rate (R*), long considered to be around 0.5%, is now hotly debated and estimated to be between 1.5% and 2.0% in the United States. The Fed Funds Futures market appears to have already factored in the impacts of enduring fiscal deficits, improved productivity, and deglobalization trends. How will these elements continue to influence Fed policy amid shifting global economic dynamics? Source: Bloomberg
Stocks, bonds and cryptos rally following soft US jobs data.
Hiring slows to 175,000 jobs in April way below the forecasted 240k. This is the lowest figure since Oct 2023’s +165k. Household survey came in below forecasts as well with unemployment rate rising to 3.9% from March's 3.8%. Wage growth slows to 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected. Note that 0.2% is consistent with 2% inflation. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The gains in equities & bonds during the Fed meeting were completely wiped out by the market by the end.
Nasdaq 100 closed 0.7% lower, and US 10y yields pared most of their drop. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Bond Market 101: a useful way to think about bond yields by Alfonso Peccatiello.
Nominal bond yields can be thought of as the interaction between: 1️⃣ Growth expectations 2️⃣ Inflation expectations 3️⃣ Term premium
In case you missed it: 2-Year Treasury Yield jumps above 5% to its highest level since November 10
Source: Barchart
What's going on here?
Source: Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald
One of the most important chart in the asset allocation decision process:
Stocks vs. long duration US Treasuries. The trend is your friend Source: J-C Parets
