Gold is printing one of its largest down candles since the early-February
puke and breaking below the 50-day moving average, a level it hasn’t closed beneath since last summer. Key support comes in at $4800, with the 200-day moving average near $4600. Source: TME
Bitcoin & crypto markets have looked resilient in the face of the Middle East conflict, outperforming Gold and equity indices.
"Maybe it takes a physical conflict to realise Bitcoin remains the most portable (cross border), digital and liquid asset w/no counter-party risks," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note. Key Implications of the Statement: ➡️ Cross-Border Portability: Bitcoin can be transferred anywhere in the world, bypassing traditional banking restrictions that may arise during conflicts. ➡️Digital Nature: Being entirely digital, it is not susceptible to physical seizure, unlike gold or fiat currency. ➡️No Counter-party Risk: Because Bitcoin is decentralized, it does not rely on a central bank or government to guarantee its value or facilitate transactions. ➡️Liquidity: The asset can be readily exchanged, providing a financial safety net when local banking systems are compromised. Chhugani has previously pointed to rising tensions as a catalyst for investors to reconsider Bitcoin as a "safe haven" asset that operates outside of traditional financial infrastructure. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Double top?
Gold is printing a sizable down candle following yesterday’s shooting star formation. We may be looking at a second lower high developing, raising the risk of a potential double top. The steep trend line sits well below current levels, and the 50-day moving average doesn’t come in until around $4,830. Source: The Market Ear
$GDX Gold miners at all time highs
Source: TrendSpider
Gold just finished its 7th consecutive month higher, the longest streak in history.
Source: RBC, BofA
THE BIG MONEY IS QUIETLY POSITIONING FOR A GOLD EXPLOSION.
While retail investors are panic-selling the dip, the "smart money" is doing something absolutely radical. I’m looking at the COMEX data, and the numbers are staggering. The Strategy: Insiders are loading up on gold options with strike prices between $15,000 and $20,000 for December 2026. The Context: Current Gold Price: ~$4,961 The Target: A 3x to 4x increase in value. Here is the part most people missed: This buying spree didn't happen during the hype. It started right after gold hit $5,600 and "dumped" hard. When the price dipped below $5,000, retail investors ran for the exits. They saw a correction; the insiders saw a generational entry point. Right now, they are sitting on over 11,000 contracts. Why does this matter? Because you don’t place a bet that gold will triple out of "optimism." You do it because you see a fundamental shift in the global financial system that others are ignoring. Source: Alex Mason @AlexMasonCrypto
TME: "Gold bounced cleanly off the 50-day and the longer-term trend line.
We’re now trading at the highest levels since that bounce, hovering around the 50% retracement of the large down candle. So far, this has been a textbook rebound as positioning resets. gold likely needs more time to consolidate. $5,200 stands out as major resistance, while $4,800 marks key support". Source: TME
🔴Hedge funds are pulling back from gold at the fastest pace in months:
Net long positions in gold dropped -23% last week, to 93,438 contracts, the lowest in 15 weeks and near the lowest in at least 12 months. This comes after gold suffered its biggest single-day plunge since 2013 on January 30. Net long positioning has now fallen -60% from the February 2025 peak of ~240,000 contracts. Hedge fund sentiment on precious metals is shifting rapidly. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
