TME: "Gold bounced cleanly off the 50-day and the longer-term trend line.
We’re now trading at the highest levels since that bounce, hovering around the 50% retracement of the large down candle. So far, this has been a textbook rebound as positioning resets. gold likely needs more time to consolidate. $5,200 stands out as major resistance, while $4,800 marks key support". Source: TME
🔴Hedge funds are pulling back from gold at the fastest pace in months:
Net long positions in gold dropped -23% last week, to 93,438 contracts, the lowest in 15 weeks and near the lowest in at least 12 months. This comes after gold suffered its biggest single-day plunge since 2013 on January 30. Net long positioning has now fallen -60% from the February 2025 peak of ~240,000 contracts. Hedge fund sentiment on precious metals is shifting rapidly. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
🔥Gold fund inflows are going parabolic:
Cumulative inflows to gold funds have surged to +$127 billion since 2020, according to BofA. Nearly +$120 BILLION has come since the start of 2025. Meanwhile, gold and gold mining ETFs received a record $91.86 billion worth of inflows in 2025, more than 8 TIMES the total in 2024. This all comes as gold hit multiple record highs over the last 2 years, and central bank buying remains historically elevated. Source: Global Markets Investor, BofA
J.P. Morgan in 1912: "Gold is money. Everything else is credit."
Source: Barchart
The Chinese leader told his people to hold gold. The people responded. Demand skyrocketed.
Now, the directive has shifted: Get USD off the books. The banks will respond. We aren't just talking about a policy change. We are talking about a fundamental shift in the global monetary order. Why does this matter? Liquidity is shifting: When the world's second-largest economy pivots away from the Dollar, the ripples hit every portfolio. Gold is the anchor: Central banks are returning to "real" assets as a hedge against geopolitical volatility. The Signal: When a superpower tells its financial institutions to de-risk from a specific currency, the "quiet part" is being said out loud. The world is de-dollarizing faster than most people realize. Source: Blomberg, Steno Research
Most recently, $BTC bitcoin hasn’t been behaving like the end-game hedge… far from it.
Since Japanese rates started ripping higher last autumn, gold and BTC have moved in almost perfect opposition. Source. TME, LSEG
Current gold bull market in historical perspective
Source: Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop Canaccord Genuity Bloomberg
30-day realized vol in gold has climbed above 44%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
That surpasses the roughly 39% for Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency often dubbed “digital gold.” Since Bitcoin’s creation 17 years ago, gold has only been more volatile on two occasions, most recently last May during a flare-up in trade tensions sparked by President Trump's tariff threats. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
