The idea of gold as a global “VIX hedge” doesn’t hold up. During the latest volatility spike, it moved in the opposite direction.
Source: The Market Ear
The war with Iran has done further damage to the global dollar system.
The demise of the dollar’s dominance won’t be an overnight phenomenon, but the conflict in the Middle East is one more milestone along the way. That can be seen in central bank holdings of gold exceeding valuation-adjusted dollar reserves for the first time in the Bretton Woods II era. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond
Major central banks have withdrawn a combined 711.5 tonnes of gold reserves from the New York Fed over the past 15 years.
This total is based on publicly reported repatriation by Venezuela (160t), the Netherlands (122.5t), Germany (~300t from the US portion), and France (129t). The Bank of France recently completed its move, replacing its final 129 tonnes of US-held gold to achieve 100% domestic storage in Paris. Rather than physically shipping the bullion, BdF sold its older US bars and purchased modern standard gold in Europe between July 2025 and January 2026, generating a ~€13B ($15B) capital gain. Source: MINING.COM
After the second-strongest bull market since at least 1974, gold is coming extremely close to bear market territory.
Source: Bespoke
Same setup, different story. $GLD $XLE
Source: Trend Spider
Gold drops signal rising market stress
In just three hours, gold fell ~$400, silver ~14%, erasing ~$2 trillion, defying its usual “safe haven” role amid geopolitical tension. This unusual behavior suggests large institutions may be raising cash quickly, liquidity is valued over safety, and hidden market stress could be building. Concurrently, oil retraced gains, futures remain stable, and insider selling has been heavy. Together, these signs indicate that markets react to pressure more than headlines, and even traditionally safe assets can be sold. Source: LimitLess
Was gold crash led by Hedge Funds?
Gold and silver prices are CRASHING: Gold is down -24% since its peak, erasing 2026 gains and falling back to December levels. Silver prices are down -47%, also down to mid-December levels. Both precious metal prices are approaching their 200-day moving averages. Massive liquidations across major assets continue. Meanwhile, a CFTC report shows hashtag#hedgefunds significantly increased their hashtag#gold hashtag#short positions, adding about $1.55–1.6 billion in new bets against gold. Around the same time, gold prices dropped sharply (from ~$4,520 to ~$4,100 in 72 hours), suggesting the selling pressure may be linked to this positioning. Hedge funds now hold a large total short position (~$23 billion), indicating strong bearish bets. Gold’s price drop may currently be driven less by fundamentals and more by positioning and coordinated behavior of large traders, meaning prices are being influenced by market pressure from leveraged players, not just underlying economic factors. Source: Wimar.X @DefiWimar
Gold is printing one of its largest down candles since the early-February
puke and breaking below the 50-day moving average, a level it hasn’t closed beneath since last summer. Key support comes in at $4800, with the 200-day moving average near $4600. Source: TME
