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THE WEEK AHEAD... All eyes on inflation data + Powell speech on Friday
>>> In the US: 1. New Home Sales data - Monday 2. CB Consumer Confidence - Tuesday 3. US Q4 2023 GDP data - Thursday 4. February PCE Inflation data - Friday 5. hashtag#Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday 6. Total of 5 Fed Speaker Events >>> Inflation will also be the key theme in europe as flash CPI reports start to come in. >>> In Japan, the focus will be on the summary of opinions from this week's BoJ meeting as well as the Tokyo CPI, labour market data and industrial production. Picture via openart.ai/midjourney
Are us financial conditions becoming too easy to tame inflation ?
Source: Bloomberg, Steno Research, Macrobond
Turkey raises benchmark rate unexpectedly by 500bps to 50%.
But main rate still way below inflation of 67.1%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
BREAKING: Japan's core inflation accelerates to 2.8%, the first increase in 4 months.
Japan's core inflation has now been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 23 consecutive months. Source: Win Smart
Powell: " We expect a bit more inflation and higher growth, but... we’re still going to be cutting rates very soon while also slowing down QT..." Mr market:
source: Geiger Capital
Why you need to invest, in one chart...
Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the sp500 has gained 840% (7.8% per year) after adjusting for inflation... Source: Charlie Bilello
The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis.
Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz.
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