🟢 BTC +3% 🔴 GOLD −6%
Some rotation from gold into bitcoin? Source: Trend Spider
Gold is giving us a lesson in statistics. Yesterday's −5.7% move is a rare 4.46-sigma move.
In a “normal” world, that’s once every 240,000 trading days. In reality −4.67% to −6.00% occurred 34 times since 1971, i.e. in 13,088 trading days (0.26% = 1 in 385 days). Even bigger drawdowns happened 21 times since 1971. Message: Gold is NOT low-vol. FOMO caused the latest leg up. Now, profit taking and weak hands got shaken out. Means? Statistically speaking, chances are that calmer days are ahead. Source: Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH on X
In gold terms, the S&P 500 is down nearly 30% so far this year.
The decline is about to surpass 2008 as the worst year for the index in gold terms in over two decades. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
The Short Term Risk For Gold
Gold volatility, GVZ, has exploded to the upside. Everybody underexposed to gold has grabbed calls with both hands, pushing volatilities to extremes. Theta is painfully expensive up here. Once gold pauses or reverses, this could turn into a major headwind. Source: The Market Ear
The long-term potential for GOLD
The current gold secular bull market tracking higher than the early-2000s move and lower than the 1970s bull. Source: @3F_Research, Warren Pies This is not an investment
The Gold ETF ended yesterday's session at its most overbought level on record (monthly RSI). Today it is down 4%
$GLD Source. Charlie Biello
China is remonetizing gold
Gold Warrants on the Shanghai futures exchange are UP 25x since the beginning if the year. What is a Gold Warrant? A gold warrant on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is an electronic certificate representing ownership of a specific quantity of physical gold stored in an SHFE-approved delivery warehouse. They are used as the basis for physical delivery against gold futures contracts. Each standard gold warrant typically represents 3,000 grams of gold that meets exchange standards for purity and origin. Why are they surging? Shanghai gold warrants are surging due to a combination of record-breaking safe-haven demand, robust central bank gold purchases (notably by the People’s Bank of China), and intense price volatility driving investor and arbitrage activity. Source: Jim Bianco, @AndreasSteno
Gold, Utilities, healthcare and consumer staples are leading the S&P 500 this month
Source: WSJ
