Amazing chart by CrossBorderCapital
Treasuries out, gold in?
The correlation was weaker in the 1980s/1990s, but starting after 2000, gold has historically done quite well whenever the Fed pauses or cuts
Source: Lyn Alden
Oil vol, OVX, and gold vol, GVZ, have exploded higher and continue to stay at elevated levels/move to new recent highs
These are the two assets to watch for the "real" war stress. Source: TME, Refinitiv
Gold (in yellow) vs. VIX (in green). Is gold the new 'fear index'?
It has systemically decoupled from real rates for sure. Source: Bloomberg
Will bitcoin follow gold?
Since Israel tragic event, Gold has surged >5pct, while bitcoin has dropped alongside the spike of the VIX. In the short-run, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity. Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
Central banks have continued to load up on the yellow metal
They added 77 tonnes to their gold reserves in August. Net buying is closing in on recent "highs". Gold is trading without much trend, but we are at very big levels. Source: Variant perception, TME
A new all time high for gold denominated in yen
Source: barchart
Higher real rates and an upward-trending dollar spell trouble for Gold, with ETF outflows and shrinking longs in the futures market underlining weaker investor appetite
The metal has fallen below the 200-day average, with both the 100-day and 50-day moving averages trending lower. And given gold’s propensity to trend, this is NOT a positive for Gold. However, a quiet season in the jewelry market should see some pick up as the Hindu festival of Diwali approaches in November. This event is associated with gold gifting, and kicks of a wedding season in India that also features strong demand. Source: Bloomberg
