Syz the moment

Of the roughly $1.03 trillion outstanding in this maturity bucket, the Federal Reserve holds around $540 billion. Why? Much of it is the legacy of QE after 2008 and especially COVID, when the Fed bought trillions of dollars of long-duration Treasuries. Those bonds have now rolled down the curve. And the bigger picture is striking: 👉 The Fed still owns roughly $1.6 trillion of Treasuries with 10+ years to maturity. That means a massive amount of duration remains outside private investors’ hands. But as the Fed’s portfolio gradually shrinks, someone else must absorb that supply. And unlike the Fed, private investors care about price. So the key question isn’t just how much debt Washington will issue. It’s who will buy it — and at what yield? Source: TreasuryBonds.com

In 2022, the US froze hundreds of billions in Russian assets. Gold then rallied from $1,800 to $5,500. Now Bessent threatens to cut banks and governments doing business with Iran out of the dollar system. This might push sovereign countries / central banks to buy more gold Source: Karel Mercx

US interest costs are approaching $1.2 trillion this fiscal year, while the deficit has already reached $1.8 trillion in just 10 months. As Ray Dalio warns, when debt grows faster than the economy, the eventual choices become uncomfortable: higher taxes, spending cuts, financial repression… or more money creation. Meanwhile, gold supply remains remarkably constrained. Central banks bought 860+ tonnes in 2025 and another 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, while mine production increased just 1%. Here’s the fascinating part: Global financial wealth: ~$333 trillion Value of all gold ever mined: ~$31 trillion A mere 1 percentage-point increase in global portfolio allocations to gold would represent roughly $3.3 trillion. That’s almost 6x total annual gold demand. Gold doesn’t need everyone to become bullish. It just needs investors to want slightly more of something that remains scarce. Source: Advait Arora

Source: Barchart

Several officials favored a rate hike, while many said further tightening may be needed if inflation does not decline.

The US Treasury announced it will at least double buybacks of long-dated Treasuries, from $2bn to $4bn per operation. Markets reacted immediately: 📉 30Y Treasury yield: 5.34% → 5.18% 🥇 Gold: +3.1% 🥈 Silver: +4.1% ₿ Bitcoin: +7.8% Ξ Ethereum: +10% 💵 Dollar: -0.7% Why does it matter? The US already spends roughly $1.4 trillion annually on interest, while trillions of low-cost debt must be refinanced at much higher rates. And this isn't just an American problem: long-term government yields are surging globally. The biggest wildcard may be Japan. As Japanese yields rise, domestic investors have less incentive to finance US and European governments. 👉 The bond market is increasingly becoming the key macro risk—and falling yields remain rocket fuel for gold and crypto. Source: Bull Theory

Here’s the mechanism: 1️⃣ The Treasury issues more short-term T-bills. 2️⃣ The Fed buys bills, injecting liquidity into the system. 3️⃣ The Treasury uses its cash and buyback program to retire longer-dated Treasuries. The result? 👉 More demand at the long end. 👉 Less duration risk in the market. 👉 Potential downward pressure on long-term yields. Technically, this isn't traditional QE because the Fed isn't directly buying 10Y or 30Y Treasuries. But economically, the distinction could become increasingly blurred. With US interest costs exploding and long-term yields above 5%, policymakers have a powerful incentive to prevent the long end from spiraling higher. Call it buybacks. Call it liquidity management. Call it maturity transformation. But if the objective increasingly becomes controlling long-term borrowing costs… We may eventually get Yield Curve Control—just with a different name tag Source: Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance Hoisington Investment Management

- Covid: ~$320B - Last 7 months: ~$290B In just 7 months, the Fed has already bought almost as many Treasury bills as it did during Covid. In other words, the Fed is printing money to buy UST bills, thereby suppressing yields... How long until they will implement YCC? Source: Lukas Ekwueme