The German investment bank said it sees a scenario where central banks continue to increase their gold holdings as a financial safety net to protect themselves from Western sanctions.
These central banks have added over 225 million ounces to their reserves since the 2008 financial crisis, while their holdings of US dollars have fallen from a peak of over 60% in the early 2000s to about 40% today. Gold’s share of global central bank reserves could reach 40%, up from 30% currently, the bank predicts. At that allocation, Deutsche Bank ran a simulation that projects gold prices to hit $8,000 an ounce within five years, a near 80% rise on current levels. Source: Wall Street Mav
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.
Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money. Source: Charlie Bilello
Hawkish Hold from the BOJ Amid Rising Inflation Risks
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in a split 6–3 decision, with three members pushing for a hike to 1% as Middle East tensions raise upside inflation risks. The bank sharply revised its 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% (from 1.9%) while cutting growth expectations to 0.5% (from 1%). Markets are now pricing in 15bps of tightening by June, the yen is strengthening toward 159, and the Nikkei 225 is down around 1%, as higher oil prices threaten profits and household incomes. Source: Joumanna Nasr Bercetche (@JoumannaTV)
Warsh Senate Hearing — Key takeaways 👇
➡️ "Regime change" at the Fed: new inflation framework, revised communications, possibly fewer FOMC meetings per year. ➡️ Independence: vowed not to be Trump's "sock puppet," but declined to defend Governor Cook; said political comments on rates don't threaten Fed independence. ➡️ Dovish pivot: argues AI-driven productivity gains justify rate cuts despite 3.3% CPI. ➡️ Balance sheet is the key lever: accelerate QT, offset with lower short rates — implies a steeper curve. Confirmation at risk: Sen. Tillis (R-NC) blocking until DOJ drops Powell investigation; no clear path without him. Market read: mildly hawkish tone on the day — 10Y +4bps to 4.29%, equities turned negative intraday (but the fact that JD Vance to Pakistan for a second attempt at peace negotiations with Iran has been put on hold also explains bond yields rise and stocks pullback...) Note that prediction markets put only a 33% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Federal Reserve chair by May 15, when Jerome Powell’s term ends, according to Polymarket and Kalshi. Source: *Walter Bloomberg
Top 10 countries by gold reserves:
Source: Wall St Engine
The Federal Reserve reported an annual operating loss of $18.5 billion for 2025, marking its third straight yearly loss.
The Fed's total operating loss now stands at $210B over the past three years. Time to turn on the money printer Source: Jesse Cohen
The war with Iran has done further damage to the global dollar system.
The demise of the dollar’s dominance won’t be an overnight phenomenon, but the conflict in the Middle East is one more milestone along the way. That can be seen in central bank holdings of gold exceeding valuation-adjusted dollar reserves for the first time in the Bretton Woods II era. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.0% in February which was before the start of the Iran war.
That was the 60th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut this month and one could make a strong case for a rate hike as inflation rates are about to spike higher. Source: Charlie Bilello
