This is one of the most resilient stock market in history:
The S&P 500 has been trading above its 200-day moving average for 247 straight sessions, the third-longest streak in 8 years. The previous 2 records were posted in 2016-2018 and 2020-2021 which lasted for 430 and 400 trading days, respectively. Over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 is now up over 40%, marking the 4th best 12-month performance this century. There have been only three other occurrences since 2000 when the index rallied at least 39% year-over-year: 2004, 2010, and 2021. To put this into perspective, the S&P 500's average annual return since 1957 has been ~10%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, The Daily Shot
Of the 100 largest companies (the S&P 100), there are 25 who are trading for more than 50x reported earnings.
Meantime, there are zero companies trading for less than 10x earnings. Source: Jeff Weniger
As the market has now fully priced in a second trump presidency, the S&P500 is about to enter the best 3 month period of the year: November - January.
Below is the cycle composite for the SP500... (The trend is more important than the level). Source: J-C Parets
Finally some red on the S&P 500 index heat map...
US stocks plummeted yesterday as 10-year treasury yields and us dollar have risen for the last couple of weeks. Gold and Silver dropped sharply as well. Performance today: S&P 500 -0.9% Nasdaq -1.6% Russell 2000 -0.9% Dow Jones -1.0% Bitcoin -1.6% Bank Index +0.3% VIX +6%, front mth futures VIX +5% Gold -1.1% Silver -3.5% WTI Crude Oil -1.0% Source: Global Markets investor
Still no dip to buy...
The S&P 500 is in its longest stretch without a 1% daily move over the past 2.5 years. Quiet markets tend to be strong markets and strong markets tend to be quiet markets. Source: Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA @WillieDelwiche on X
S&P 500 VALUATION IS IN LINE WITH THE 2000 DOT-COM BUBBLE PEAK
S&P 500 Price to Book (assets minus liabilities) ratio is now 5.2x, the most on record and in line with the 2000 Dot-Com bubble burst. When excluding the Magnificent 7 group, the P/B ratio is 4.2x, near a record. Source: Global Markets Investor
What could be the tax effects on SP500 EPS based on a Trump or Harris win? Here's what BofA projects:
- They said a Harris administration would be a 4.7% headwind to overall S&P EPS growth and a Trump administration would be a 4% tailwind to S&P earnings. - The only caveat here is if we have a split congress. If so, Kamala may win but not be able to pass sweeping tax policies. Given current market action, it seems the market is currently pricing in those 2 scenarios: 1) Either Trump wins 2) or if Kamala does, she can’t pass her new tax policies because of a divided congress. Source: amit @amitisinvesting on X, BofA
This is quite impressive ... the S&P 500 is up by 38.8% year/year.
Going back to 2000, there are only 25 weeks that had stronger gains, 24 of which were either in 2010 or 2021. Source: Bloomberg, Kevin Gordon on X
