Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

15 Jan 2025

Actual S&P 500 earnings growth has exceeded expectations during the last few years.

Will it be the case again this quarter? Source: The Market Ear, Factset

13 Jan 2025

BREAKING: The difference between the S&P 500’s earnings yield and BBB-rated corporate bond yield has dropped to -1.9%, the lowest in 15 years.

Excluding a brief period in 2009, this is the lowest level in 23 years. The gap has fallen by 4 percentage points over the last 5 years as US interest rates have risen sharply. In other words, less risky investment-grade corporate bonds now pay a higher yield than S&P 500 companies' profits relative to their stock prices. This metric suggests the market may be overvalued. Can this gap continue to widen? Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter

10 Jan 2025

Breadth matters. And what we currently see on us equities does not look healthy.

Here is a visual of the % of stocks outperforming the S&P500: ALL TIME LOWS. In other words, concentration risk measured in this way beats 2000 lows. Source: Samantha LaDuc on X, GS

10 Jan 2025

Year 1 of the presidential election cycle is not that great, but still decent. 1928-2024 $SPX

Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA

10 Jan 2025

Mag 7 EPS vs SPX last 20 years

Source: GS, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA

8 Jan 2025

Should we get prepared for a choppy quarter???

The S&P 500 has gained ~1.0% on average in the first quarter after a US presidential election since 1950. It also historically comes with elevated volatility as market swings widen to both directions. On average, the first year of a new presidential cycle has seen an 8.2% average return. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, J-C Parets

8 Jan 2025

How much longer can this continue before the crocodile's mouth snaps shut?

(S&P 500 in green vs. US 10-year inverted in RED) Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com

6 Jan 2025

Nvidia $NVDA carried the S&P 500 $SPX in 2024

The AI leader drove 22% of the index’s total gains. Apple $AAPL, Amazon $AMZN, and Meta $META added another 19% combined. Broadcom $AVGO chipped in nearly 5%. These 5 companies powered almost half of the index's 2024 returns. Source: Carbon Finance

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks