Could next week be a better week for bulls?
Source: TradingThomas3
The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year.
The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Industrial Metals relative strength (vs. $SPX) ready to turn?
Source: Nautilus Research
The S&P 500 has not had a weekly drop of 2% or more since the week of October 23rd, 2023.
There have only been a total of TWO weekly drops in the entire 2024 so far. Since October 2023, the S&P 500 has added almost $11 TRILLION in market cap. That's more than 4 TIMES the value of the Canadian stock market added in 5 months. $11 trillion in market cap is also the same value of China's entire stock market. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Nasdaq Composite index is officially up 30% from its October 2023 low.
That's a 30% gain in 5 months or an average of 6% per month since October. To put this in perspective, the median ANNUAL return for the S&P 500 is 10%. This means that the Nasdaq has TRIPLED the median sp500 return in just 5 months. The top 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 also now reflect 75% of the index. Tech stocks have never been more powerful. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Current SP500 vs. election seasonality
by Win Smart, CFA
Don't be too excited about Fed rate cuts.
Examining Fed rate cycles since 1970s has revealed that investors have more to fear from 1st cut in a cycle than the pause. On average, sp500 is up +5% over 100 days between last Fed tightening and 1st cut. The trough in broader market is -23% over 200 days after 1st cut in a series, SRP has calculated. Source: HolgerZ
Tech Stocks are trading at all-time highs relative to the SP500, even surpassing the peak of the Dot Com bubble...
Source: BofA, Bar chart
