What a chart... aluminum...
While most of the critical minerals talk in the US is about rare earths, something far more important is happening: US aluminum all-in costs have surged to a record as traders/smelters demand huge physical premia on top of LME prices due to Trump’s tariffs. Source: Javier Blas on X , Bloomberg
🌍 The IEA just dropped a bombshell:
If the world stays on its current path, oil and gas demand will keep rising for the next 25 years. That’s right — no peak this decade, no major drop in CO₂ emissions, and likely no chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C. 🔥 2024 was the hottest year on record. Yet the International Energy Agency says “climate change is rapidly declining on the global energy agenda.” Why? Governments are prioritizing energy security and affordability over climate goals. Growth of electric vehicles is slowing. Demand for energy from AI, air conditioners, and manufacturing is exploding. 📈 Under the IEA’s new “Current Policies” scenario: Oil demand grows from 100M → 113M barrels/day by 2050 EV adoption plateaus around 40% by 2035 Gas demand continues to climb Coal finally peaks — but still lingers 💡 Even so, renewables will shoulder most of the new electricity demand — especially in India, SE Asia, Latin America, and Africa. ⚠️ Translation: The clean energy revolution is real… …but fossil fuels aren’t going anywhere unless policies change fast. Source: FT
And the winner of the power demand is .... Coal !
Source: Bloomberg, @AzizSapphire
Gold and gold miners together represent about 5% of total global assets.
That is approximately 7–5 times below the highs reached in prior cycles. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
The US has added copper, silver, and uranium to its official list of critical minerals
This expanded the Trump administration’s definition of resources considered essential to the nation’s economy and security According to a Bloomberg report, citing a US government website, the revised US Geological Survey list now includes 60 minerals in total — 10 more than before — with new additions such as metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead. The list also encompasses 15 rare earth elements and replaces the previous version published in 2022. https://lnkd.in/eFTMDJ29 Source: Firstpost
In case you missed it... Soybeans jump to highest price since July 2024 📈📈
Source: Barchart
Gold to Silver ratio through history
Source: Ali C on X
Gold is giving us a lesson in statistics. Yesterday's −5.7% move is a rare 4.46-sigma move.
In a “normal” world, that’s once every 240,000 trading days. In reality −4.67% to −6.00% occurred 34 times since 1971, i.e. in 13,088 trading days (0.26% = 1 in 385 days). Even bigger drawdowns happened 21 times since 1971. Message: Gold is NOT low-vol. FOMO caused the latest leg up. Now, profit taking and weak hands got shaken out. Means? Statistically speaking, chances are that calmer days are ahead. Source: Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH on X
