COPPER JUST HIT A RECORD HIGH
LME copper has surged above $14,530 per tonne, climbing more than 68% since “Liberation Day” in April 2025. Copper is often called “the metal with a PhD in economics” because demand is closely tied to global growth, construction, electrification and industrial activity. And right now, Dr Copper is sending a powerful signal: Strong economic momentum Rising inflationary pressure Booming demand for electrification and AI infrastructure Copper isn’t just rallying. It may be warning that the global economy is running hotter than expected. Source: Bianco Research
$1.80 TRILLION has been added to Gold and Silver Marketcap in the last 30 hours as Fed rate hike expectations drop to 50.4%.
Source: Bull Theory
The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement, according to a Russian news source.
They cite Pakistani and Iranian sources, saying the deal will be announced in the coming days. U.S. oil prices fell on the news. Neither the U.S. nor Iran have confirmed. Source: Trend Spider
Meanwhile…..
Agricultural commodities are now at their highest level in a decade. Yet another unintended consequence of higher energy prices. Watch the Fed be forced to walk back its hawkish stance even as inflation continues to creep higher. Source: Tavi Costa
A massive global food supply crisis could start next year because of fertilizer shortages, per JPMorgan.
Unlike oil, there is no strategic reserve for fertilizer. Source: Bull Theory, JP Morgan
Diesel is flashing RED.
The US diesel crack spread — the margin between crude oil and diesel — just hit a record $102/barrel, setting new highs in five of the last six sessions. Why it matters: ⛽ US diesel inventories are at their lowest seasonal level since 1996. 🏭 Global refinery output is down ~5 million barrels/day YoY amid disruptions linked to Iran and Ukraine. 🇷🇺 Russia has restricted diesel exports through January. 🚜 And Northern Hemisphere harvest season is starting — exactly when diesel demand from agriculture rises. Most investors watch crude oil. But diesel is arguably more important for the real economy. Trucks, tractors, ships and heavy machinery depend on it. One study estimates diesel prices explain 46% of trucking costs. Higher diesel → higher freight costs → higher food and goods prices. And with producer prices already rising faster than consumer prices, some of those costs could still be waiting to reach consumers. Oil may drive the headlines. Diesel could be the one driving inflation higher. Source: Hedgie
Uranium hits highest price since February
Source: Barchart
No rare earths = no fighter jets = no modern war machine.
The U.S. remains heavily dependent on China for critical rare-earth materials, with roughly 70% of rare-earth imports coming from China. And Beijing has increasingly demonstrated its willingness to restrict exports of strategic minerals. The vulnerability goes far beyond fighter jets. Rare earths and related critical minerals are essential for missiles, radar systems, drones, satellites, precision-guided weapons, submarines and advanced electronics. If inventories are already tight, a prolonged disruption in Chinese supply could become a serious bottleneck for U.S. defense production. That creates a striking strategic paradox: America's military-industrial base still depends, in part, on supply chains dominated by its biggest geopolitical rival. China doesn't necessarily need to fire a shot to exert pressure. Sometimes the most powerful weapon is controlling what your opponent needs to keep fighting. Sun Tzu would understand the strategy. Source: Lukas Ekwueme
