In the last 3 weeks, Gold is down -14%. Silver is down -28%. And yet… we have war, oil shocks, and extreme volatility. So what’s really going on?
This should be a perfect environment for precious metals to surge. But they’re falling. Here’s the truth most people are missing 👇 📉 Gold is NOT moving on fear (for now). It’s moving on global reserve flows. After 2022, when the US and Europe froze Russian reserves, something big changed: ➡️ Surplus countries stopped trusting Treasuries ➡️ They started buying gold instead Gold became a reserve asset of choice, not just a safe haven. 💥 Now comes the shock: The Strait of Hormuz blockade is crushing oil revenues. And that hits the exact countries that were buying gold: • Saudi Arabia • UAE • Kuwait Less oil revenue = less surplus Less surplus = less gold buying (or even selling) 🌏 The ripple effect doesn’t stop there: China — the world’s largest oil importer — is now facing slower growth. That means: ➡️ Smaller trade surpluses ➡️ Slower reserve accumulation ➡️ Less demand for gold ⚙️ And silver? It’s getting hit even harder. Why? Because ~50% of silver demand is industrial. So when global growth slows: ➡️ Demand drops ➡️ Prices fall faster than gold 🧠 The big takeaway: Gold isn’t reacting to fear right now. It’s reacting to global trade and capital flows. And those flows are weakening. 📌 The structural bull case for gold? Still intact. But in the short term… 👉 Gold follows liquidity and reserves 👉 Not headlines and fear Source: Global Markets Investor
Goldman team is coming out with higher for longer for oil prices even after the "all clear" sounds and SoH is reopened.
Source: Open Square Capital
Gold is printing one of its largest down candles since the early-February
puke and breaking below the 50-day moving average, a level it hasn’t closed beneath since last summer. Key support comes in at $4800, with the 200-day moving average near $4600. Source: TME
Dr Copper ?
Source: Bloomberg
Dollar and the oil crisis
Last time it caught strong bids and squeezed for some 6 months. A similar move would tighten financial conditions quickly. Source. TS Lombard, TME
3 scenarios on Iran War by UBS
1. Quick de-escalation: Hormuz flows resume quickly; Brent averages ~$80 in March then mid-$70s, while TTF gas falls from ~€50 to high-€30s as inventories cushion short-term disruptions. 2. ~1-month Hormuz disruption: Markets tighten; Brent rises above $100 in March and TTF gas approaches €80, with faster inventory drawdowns and delayed normalization. 3. Extended disruption / infrastructure damage: Severe supply shock; Brent could reach $150+ by 2Q26 and TTF ~€80, creating a crisis similar to the 2022 European gas shock. ➡️ One thing is clear: OVX is not pricing the de-escalation scenario, closing at 121. Source. UBS, TME
This is what Bloomberg thinks oil prices could be if the strait of Hormuz is shut for different time periods
1 month - ~$105 per barrel 2 months - ~$140 3 months - ~$165 Source: Evan Evan StockMKTNewz Bloomberg Economics
Today, oil printed one of the biggest shooting star candles we have ever seen
* $35 range * Rockets 30% higher Sunday night (green) * Crashes 30% the rest of the day (red). Source: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
