Syz the moment

+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is usedChina’s rise has a quiet weakness: energy dependence. 🇨🇳 China imports 70%+ of its oil 🛢️ And that oil comes from a very small club of countries Here’s the part most people miss: Venezuela (#1), Saudi Arabia (#2), and Iran (#3) Together control ~45% of the world’s proven oil reserves Now connect the dots. The public narratives are familiar: • Remove dictators • Stop drug trafficking • Prevent nuclear weapons All valid concerns. But they don’t explain the pattern. 🔹 If drugs were the real reason, Mexico would be the main target 🔹 If nukes were the red line, North Korea would be regime-changed 🔹 If authoritarianism was intolerable, the list would be much longer So why Iran and Venezuela? Because both sit on massive oil reserves And both have been energy lifelines for China This isn’t about invasion or ownership. It’s about influence: • Who they trade with • Who they align with • Who gets access when supply tightens You don’t need to control oil. You just need to shape who can’t access it. Seen through that lens, the strategy becomes clear: 🧠 Pressure China without firing at China 🌍 Reshape global energy leverage ♟️ Play the long game, quietly Source: SoveyX Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge

+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge

"Based on the 15% weekend gain in retail prices, we estimate an $18/bbl real-time risk premium in crude oil prices, which corresponds approximately to our estimate of the fair value effect of a six-week full halt in Strait of Hormuz flows (allowing for spare pipeline capacity use as a partial offset). This estimated impact moderates to +$4 if only 50% of the flows are halted for one month. However, oil prices can rise substantially more if the market demands a premium for the risk of more persistent supply disruptions." Source: Brian Sozzi

“.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario.”

Source: RBC, BofA

Why? Hormuz risk = 15% of global LNG flows exposed, mainly Qatari cargoes. Europe replaced Russian pipeline gas with seaborne LNG. Now that LNG must pass the Gulf. Starting point isn’t comfortable: • EU storage ~31% vs ~40% last year • Germany ~20% • France ~21% Add: • Large speculative shorts • Forced short covering • Front-month panic buying If Qatari LNG is materially disrupted for weeks, analysts see €80–100/MWh possible. Source: Jack Prandelli

Using European benchmark TTF as a proxy, here's the price chart of the last few years. Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg

While retail investors are panic-selling the dip, the "smart money" is doing something absolutely radical. I’m looking at the COMEX data, and the numbers are staggering. The Strategy: Insiders are loading up on gold options with strike prices between $15,000 and $20,000 for December 2026. The Context: Current Gold Price: ~$4,961 The Target: A 3x to 4x increase in value. Here is the part most people missed: This buying spree didn't happen during the hype. It started right after gold hit $5,600 and "dumped" hard. When the price dipped below $5,000, retail investors ran for the exits. They saw a correction; the insiders saw a generational entry point. Right now, they are sitting on over 11,000 contracts. Why does this matter? Because you don’t place a bet that gold will triple out of "optimism." You do it because you see a fundamental shift in the global financial system that others are ignoring. Source: Alex Mason @AlexMasonCrypto