"The relationship between what the US government's debt is doing and stock prices has flipped in a big way. In fact, this is the most extreme yields-stocks relationship this entire market cycle."
Source: Daily Chartbook
South Korea’s KOSPI just exploded almost +8%, making it one of the biggest rallies in the index’s history.
Over ₩600,000,000,000,000 ($400+ BILLION) was added to South Korea's stock market on hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict. A buy-side sidecar was triggered shortly after the market opened. Source: Bull Theory
While AI has fueled a surge in EM technology stocks, India’s IT sector has been left behind.
Source: Alpine Macro
This chart is why you should be careful with the SpaceX IPO.
Five of the most hyped IPOs of the last 15 years, and every single one collapsed after listing. - UBER lost 70% of its IPO price. - META crashed 77% from its peak. - Robin Hood fell 92%. - Coinbase fell 93%. - Rivian fell 95%. The hype is often priced in on day one. And the people who bought the hype got crushed. But look at where the real money was made. At the bottom, when nobody wanted these stocks. Robinhood went up 22x from its low. Meta went up 45x. Uber 7x. Patience beat hype. Although Rivian reminds us that even patience doesn't save every company... SpaceX will be the most hyped IPO of the decade. History tells me I don't need to be there on day one. If it's a great business, there will be a better price later. First they fall. Then they fly. Source: @moninvestor
Oracle just revealed the hidden cost of the AI arms race.
$ORCL spent a staggering $55.7 BILLION on capex this year — $5.7B above its own guidance. Now it plans to raise another $40B in debt + equity. The market’s reaction? Oracle stock dropped 6% after hours. Why investors are nervous: • AI infrastructure is becoming massively capital intensive • Debt levels are exploding • Returns on AI spending remain uncertain Yet the numbers were still huge: • Revenue: $19.2B (+21%) • Cloud Infrastructure: +93% growth • AI bookings hit record levels • Remaining contracts surged to $638B Oracle is no longer just a database company. It’s becoming one of the biggest AI infrastructure bets in the world. The real question now: Will AI demand grow fast enough to justify the biggest debt-fueled spending cycle in tech history?Source: Special Situations
Here are the biggest drawdowns from S&P 1500 Tech stocks that have made 52-week highs in the last two months. A couple of these are in 30%+ drawdowns yet still up 500%+ y/y.
Source: Bespoke
One of the biggest hidden drivers of the US stock market may be coming to an end.
Since 2003, US equities have been in a historic era of NEGATIVE net supply. Translation: Companies bought back more stock than the market created through IPOs and new share issuance. Less supply + relentless demand = higher prices. That dynamic helped fuel one of the greatest bull markets in history. Now the trend is reversing. For the first time in 23 years, US stock market supply is expected to stop shrinking. Why? Because the AI race is becoming insanely expensive. Big Tech firms are preparing massive share sales to finance AI infrastructure spending. At the same time, IPO giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could eventually bring huge new supply to public markets. Goldman Sachs estimates net equity supply could turn flat in 2026 after two decades in negative territory. The AI boom may not just change technology. It may fundamentally change the market structure that powered US equities since the GFC. Source: FT
Nvidia $NVDA is now worth more than India 🇮🇳
Source: Bloomberg, Barchart
