Technical corner by TME ->
$SPX S&P 500 is trading just below range lows, with the 21-day crossing the 200-day MA. The déjà vu setup remains in play for now. A slightly lower close risks accelerating the move to the downside.
Stock markets around the world since the war started:
Source: Dividendology
The Fundrise Innovation Fund (ticker $VCX) is a closed-end fund invested into non-listed companies such as Anthropic, Space X, etc.
Investors paid at top tick $575 while the current NAV (bottom of the chart) is $18.25… Peak sentiment on private cos? Source. Bloomberg, RBC
What happened to luxury stocks ?
Current Drawdowns: EssilorLuxottica: -39% Hermès: -41% Ferrari: -43% LVMH: -49% $RACE $RMS $MC $EL Source: Fiscal.ai
Range or breakdown?
Markets are at a decision point. The big range is still holding, but short-term trends, bond stress, and positioning shifts are building pressure. These setups don’t linger, one side eventually wins. Source: TME
The S&P 500 $SPX is back inside the "eternal" range as the max frustration market continues.
Amazingly enough, the 6600/7000 (futures) range continues to hold. Note we are still below the 200 day MA. Source: TME
Will the equity market follow the historical script around geopolitical shocks
"The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is resolved. The current selloff is in the vicinity of a typical bottom in size and timing." - Deutsche Bank Source: Sam Ro @SamRo DB
Today is the six-year anniversary of the COVID Crash low.
The S&P would need to fall 66% to get back to that level. Source: Bespoke
