Kospi -6%, bigger drop than Liberation day, worst day since August 2024 carry trade unwind
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
$EWY iShares South Korea is up 54% in 39 trading days in 2026
Source: TrendSpider
Israel’s stock exchange is up 8.85% in live markets now.
The local index is up 3.74% today as well. It looks absurd as missiles fly toward Israel. However, markets are likely pricing in the perception of a "decisive victory" and long-term risk reduction of Iran. Source: Trading View, Serenity
TRILLION DOLLAR BABY
Samsung becomes the first Korean company to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization. Source: Jukan @jukan05
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year
But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years.” Source: Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook
Anthropic’s AI Standoff Could Trigger Historic Software Short Squeeze
Anthropic, creator of Claude, is at the center of a clash between AI ethics and U.S. defense policy. After winning a $200M classified contract, the Pentagon demanded compliance with a broader AI doctrine, conflicting with Anthropic’s safety guardrails. Tensions escalated following Claude’s military use, threatening contract cancellation and supply chain pressures. With Software & IT Services at record short levels, resolution, either compliance or Pentagon compromise, could spark a massive short squeeze, highlighting the battle over control of frontier AI. Source: ZeroHedge
Korean stock market FOMO risks crash
"The Bank of Korea noted rising market volatility and investor anxiety, with VKOSPI spiking to levels typical of market crashes" It's very unusual for implied options volatility to rise during a rally unless there is extreme reach for call options. Normally volatility spikes at the lows not the highs. Imagine what volatility will be like at these lows... Source: Mac10
Why Software Valuations May Drop Despite Earnings Growth
BofA highlights that software stocks could see lower P/Es even with strong earnings. Market disruption is priced before profits, low-multiple tech tends to lag, and EPS growth can compress valuations when equity supply rises. Post-ChatGPT, IT Services lost their premium, reflecting repricing rather than sentiment. Rising asset intensity, weaker leverage, and private market issues add risk. Valuations fall not from failure but from resetting expectations, meaning even strong software companies aren’t immune. Source: BofA, Neil Sethi @neilksethi
