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3 Jul 2026

There goes credit:

CRWV, ORCL CDS blow out to 2 month wides. AMZN, GOOG, MSFT drifting wider; SpaceX at 141, up 31bps since breaking last week. Source: zerohedge

3 Jul 2026

One more push?

SOX broke below the short-term trendline earlier this week and is now approaching both the 50-day moving average and the lower end of its recent trading range. Chasing momentum breakouts in either direction has been a costly strategy since mid-May, as mean reversion has consistently dominated. RSI has now fallen to its most oversold level since late May. Source: TME

2 Jul 2026

In case you missed it... 🚨 AI stock euphoria just hit a wall in Asia.

More than $730 billion in market value has been erased across Asian equity markets today as AI and semiconductor stocks came under heavy selling pressure. 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI: -7.89% ($324B wiped out) 🇯🇵 Japan's Nikkei: -2.47% ($214B wiped out) 🇨🇳 China's Shanghai Composite: -2.1% ($191B wiped out) The selloff follows two major warnings over the weekend. The IMF cautioned that AI-related equity valuations have become increasingly speculative and detached from fundamentals. Meanwhile, Wealspring Asset, whose founder famously called the 2007 market peak, warned that a massive global AI bubble has formed, adding that its "collapse point may not be far away." After months of relentless optimism, markets are suddenly being forced to price in the possibility that AI expectations have run too far, too fast. Source: Bull Theory

2 Jul 2026

The META effect

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) climbed more than 10% on Wednesday after a report said the social media company is developing a cloud computing business that would monetize surplus artificial intelligence computing capacity. Meta's plan to monetize excess AI compute may have exposed the first real crack in the AI CapEx narrative. If hyperscalers can generate revenue from spare capacity, or eventually reduce spending without sacrificing AI capabilities, the market's assumption of persistent compute scarcity comes into question. That would be a negative for the hardware and infrastructure layer, but potentially positive for hyperscalers that can monetize existing assets more efficiently (more here). Chart below shows KOSPI, SOX and META (inverted). Source: TME

1 Jul 2026

The US equity market is recording massive inflows

Source: EPFR, Goldman

1 Jul 2026

The end of US exceptionalism? really?

Source: Goldman, EPFR

30 Jun 2026

Hedge funds are abandoning US tech stocks at the fastest pace in over a decade:

The Technology, Media, and Telecom sector has seen the largest and most sustained outflows of any US sector in 2026. The net selling accelerated sharply in June to nearly -3% of total US gross market value, according to Goldman Sachs. Last week, hedge funds sold the most US Information Technology stocks in more than 10 years, in both dollar and percentage terms. This was driven by long and short sales at a ratio of roughly 1.3 to 1. Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment accounted for more than half of the total tech sales, having now been net sold for 8 consecutive sessions. Hedge funds are running to the exit in US tech. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs

30 Jun 2026

The top 10 contributors to S&P 500 earnings growth.

Source: Markets & Mayhem, Factset

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