All about oil
SPX and oil moving in pretty much perfect inverse tandem. Correlations since March 4th around 96%. Source: TME
Bluekurtic Market Insights: "$SPX volatility index $VIX remains above 20 and oil at multi year highs.
Sustained oil supply shocks can risk deeper drawdowns. In prior cases of prolonged supply disruptions, S&P 500 saw above average drawdowns in the following 3 months". Source: Bluekurtic
The Global Equity market is valued at $154 trillion as of 2025 and here's the detailed breakdown.
44% of the global share is owned by USA, while the rest of the world combined holds 56%. China and the European Union (EU) hold similar stakes at about 9.6% each. India is the third largest country, representing 6.9% of the global equity markets, followed by Japan at 4.9%. A 10-year comparison (2015 vs 2025): Interestingly, China, EU, Hong Kong, Japan and UK have each seen a decline from their share in 2015. On the other hand, India and USA have both witnessed an increase in their share. Source: Stocks World @anandchokshi19
Goldman Sachs on stocks
Goldman Sachs on stocks: "Overall, equities [aka stocks] face rising correction risk; valuations are stretched, macro conditions are deteriorating at the margin and cracks are appearing across growth, inflation, credit and labour markets. But strong fundamentals argue against a bear market, reinforcing the view that weakness should be temporary as the medium-term backdrop is more constructive: earnings remain resilient, balance sheets are solid and history suggests that geopolitical shocks often present opportunity rather than lasting damage." Source: Brian Sozzi
The cost of downside protection is near the most expensive levels on record.
Source: The Chart Report @TheChartReport
🔴Technology stocks are STRUGGLING:
World tech equities are underperforming other stocks by ~7 percentage points, one of the worst starts to a year in HISTORY. Tech relative performance is now tracking in the bottom 10% of years since 1973. Historically, the median outcome by year-end has been +4 percentage points of outperformance for tech. The last time tech underperformed this badly was during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Is the tech bubble starting to pop? Source: Goldman Sachs, Global Markets Investor
Almost as if something happened on Oct 10...
Source: zerohedge
US equities are generally resilient to conflicts
MS: "While this is not an exhaustive study, based on 14 events over the last few decades (generally major, as well as some recent smaller Iran related incidents) the S&P 500 is generally range bound following the start of a conflict. The event causing the largest drawdown in this sample was September 11th, 2001." Source: TME, MS
