Syz the moment

$JPM JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: "The U.S. economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time..." Source: The Transcript

Source: Silver Gold News

China’s December trade data just leaked, and it’s a masterclass in contradiction: ✅ The Good News: Exports beat expectations by 2x. Imports are at a 3-month high. The annual trade surplus hit a record high (up 20%). ❌ The Bad News: Trade with the U.S. is in freefall. Exports to the U.S. are down 30%. Imports from the U.S. are down 29%. What does this mean for 2026? - Diversification is king. China is filling the "U.S. gap" elsewhere. - Tariffs are working (but maybe not as intended). They are reducing bilateral trade, but China’s total global footprint is still growing. - Supply chains are shifting. Expect "China + 1" to move from a buzzword to a survival requirement. Source: CNBC

Since: zerohedge

For the first time since 1978, Iran’s oil output has reached about 5.5 million barrels per day, marking a structural shift rather than a simple recovery. After years of volatility, production has surged since 2020, driven largely by growth in condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are less constrained by sanctions than conventional crude. Much of this supply is moving discreetly to China via shadow fleets, adding hidden liquidity to global markets and helping restrain oil prices despite geopolitical risks. Bottom line: Iran is re-emerging as a major energy player in a form that is harder to sanction, raising questions about how effective traditional oil sanctions remain in today’s market. Source: Jack Prandelli on X

The global energy balance has shifted sharply as China now absorbs nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, up from 25% in 2017, creating a dangerous concentration of risk. Any disruption in Iran now directly threatens China’s energy security. The 2026 oil market is under pressure from rising political instability in Iran, already reflected in a $3–4/barrel geopolitical risk premium. Iranian oil stored offshore has reached record levels as buyers hesitate amid escalating sanctions and military risks. At the same time, the U.S. is threatening 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, extending the conflict from energy into global trade. With Iran increasingly reliant on Chinese “teapot” refiners, a break in this relationship could trigger severe economic fallout for Tehran and disrupt sanctioned oil flows globally. The system moving sanctioned oil is fragile, raising the risk of a supply shock for China and a major test of U.S. enforcement credibility. Source: Jack Prandelli in X, Visual Capitalist

Markets price a 71% chance that courts rule Trump’s tariffs illegal, raising the prospect of $600B+ in refunds and significant market uncertainty. A non-consensus view argues the opposite outcome is more likely: keeping the tariffs may be less disruptive than reversing them. U.S. businesses have already adapted by restructuring supply chains, repricing goods, and adjusting investment plans, so a sudden rollback could punish those who adjusted and reward those who didn’t. Early fears of runaway inflation, collapsing earnings, and stalled growth have not materialized. Striking down the tariffs would also create legal and fiscal uncertainty around refunds and replacement measures, increasing volatility. Once embedded, tariffs function as a fiscal revenue tool, not just trade policy. Bottom line: The court may prioritize the least disruptive outcome—maintaining or modifying tariffs rather than eliminating them outright. Source: Cassian @ConvexDispatch, @BobEUnlimited

Source: Barchart