Iranian “missile hit rates against Israel have risen from 3% during the first two weeks of the war to 27%.”
Source: Carl Quintanilla
New paper from Hendrik Bessembinder just analyzed 100 years of stock market data.
And it's shocking. Out of nearly 30,000 stocks analyzed... Just 30 companies generated ~44% of all wealth created. Source: Oktay Kavrak, CFA @OKavrak
The new deadline from the US President: 8PM ET on Tuesday for a deal before "“Every bridge in Iran will be decimated" by 12 midnight ET.
Source: David Ingles
Rate-change expectations for The Fed in 2026 shifted dovishly back into 'cut' territory today
Source: zerohedge
Iran's attacks on Arab countries
Source: AlMajallaEN
The Gulf "is now home to both the best-performing global bourse over the past month and the worst"
"Dubai’s main stock index is the world’s worst performer so far in March .. Oman’s benchmark surged to the top of global rankings" Source: Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg
No TACO YET
*TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN *TRUMP: WE WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS *TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS IF NO DEAL Everything that was rallying on peace hopes sold off immediately. Asian markets cratering overnight. Japan down 2.4%. South Korea down 4.2%. Oil surging back above $105 after briefly dipping on peace hopes. Source: Jim Bianco, CNBC
A record short bet against oil as TRADERS POUR $977 MILLION INTO LEVERED BET THAT OIL WILL PLUNGE
Just before Trump sent oil prices surging higher... Oil traders made a big leveraged bet that prices would fall from war-driven highs — but many are losing badly. Investors poured $977M into the inverse oil ETF (SCO) in March, its biggest monthly inflow ever. The fund aims to profit when oil drops, but instead plunged 41% as crude surged. The bet hinges on a quick end to conflict. While the fund briefly jumped 8% after signals of de-escalation, oil prices remain elevated — rising as high as $119 and still around $102, well above February levels. Ongoing supply disruptions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could keep prices high for months. Even a ceasefire may not be enough for short traders to recover. Bottom line: this is a high-risk “war ends soon” trade — and so far, it’s backfiring. Source: Markets & Mayhem, *Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone
