Dow Theory says this is a bull market
Most people watch the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and think they understand the market. But smart investors know: The trend isn’t real until the Transportation Index agrees. Here’s why ⬇️ 🔍 The Logic (100+ years old… still undefeated) If manufacturers (Industrial Average) are doing well, they should be shipping more goods. If more goods are being shipped, transportation companies (Transportation Average) should also be trending up. Production ↑ → Shipping ↑ → Healthy trend confirmed If Industrials rise but Transports fall? 🚨 Something’s off. Demand may be weakening. 🧠 How Dow Theory Uses This ✔️ Bull trend confirmed Both DJIA and DJTA make higher highs + higher lows. ✔️ Bear trend confirmed Both make lower lows + lower highs. ❌ No confirmation One goes up, the other flat/down → The trend is suspect. Momentum may be false or weakening. Source chart: J-C Parets
💥 Meta is building a $27 BILLION data center in Louisiana…
👉 But none of it shows up on Meta’s balance sheet. How? Meta shifted the entire project into a joint venture: 🔹 Meta owns 20% 🔹 Blue Owl Capital owns 80% 🔹 A holding company (Beignet Investor) issued $27.3B in bonds, mostly bought by Pimco 🔹 Meta will rent the data center starting in 2029 And here’s the kicker: the lease is structured to qualify as an operating lease, not a finance lease — letting Meta avoid listing the giant asset and the massive debt. But peel back the layers and things get messy: 🔥 Meta runs the data center 🔥 Meta carries the risk of cost overruns 🔥 Meta guarantees the full value of the bonds if they don’t renew 🔥 Yet Meta insists it doesn’t “control” the venture enough to count it on the books Even the Wall Street Journal called it “artificial accounting.” 🧩 It’s part of a bigger trend: Tech giants want unlimited AI infrastructure… 🚫 …but they don’t want the debt that comes with it. Morgan Stanley estimates the industry could need $800B in off-balance-sheet financing by 2028. Meta may not be borrowing on paper — but economically, this is debt with extra steps. What do you think: smart financial engineering or a red flag in disguise? Source: Hedgie
A great post and chart by @AndreasSteno on X: It's not an AI scare. It's an OpenAI scare.
The "Google bets" basket (Alphabet, Broadcom and Celestica) just hit a new ATH while the "Open AI" basket (Nvidia, Softbank & Microsoft) has been hut hard since the end of October. Source: Steno Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
The Great Orange Juice collapse continues as price fall to the lowest level since 2021 📉
Bottomless Mimosas on tap for Thanksgiving 🥳🥂
Here are the key takeaways from a great post by Kris Patel on X: 🔥 $GOOGL vs. $NVDA — The Market is mispricing the AI War.
Everyone’s arguing about who has the fastest chip. But that’s not the real disruption. Google isn’t trying to beat Nvidia on speed. Google is trying to beat Nvidia on economics. Here’s the overlooked truth: 1️⃣ The “Nvidia Tax” Nvidia sells to hyperscalers with 70%+ margins. AWS, Azure, and everyone else pay it, and pass it on to you. 2️⃣ Google plays a different game They’re the only hyperscaler that doesn’t need to profit from selling chips. They build TPUs at cost and control the entire stack: Chip → Interconnect → Data Center → Cloud. No margin stacking. No tax. 3️⃣ Training ≠ Inference Training = Ferrari (Nvidia dominates). Inference = Semi-truck (cheap, reliable, scaled). As AI matures, ~90% of spend shifts to inference. And here’s the bombshell: 👉 If Google drives cost-per-token toward zero with TPUs + aggressive cloud pricing… Raw speed stops mattering. Economics wins. Nvidia is selling generators. Google is building the electric grid. Cheap compute + massive distribution = 🏰 Empire. Source: Kris Patel
Nvidia responds to news of Meta using Google's TPUs, sending $NVDA stock -6% lower:
Nvidia says they are "delighted by Google's success" and they "continue to supply Google." They also say, "Nvidia is a generation ahead of the industry" and "offers greater performance, versatility, and fungibility." The AI wars are heating up. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Anthropic unveils Claude Opus 4.5, its most intelligent model to date, co says
It’s meaningfully better at everyday tasks like working with slides and spreadsheets. The new AI tops coding benchmark, leading in key tests like SWE-bench Verified at 80.9%, Terminal-bench 2.0 at 59.3%, and OSWorld at 66.3%, beating models from Google and OpenAI in coding, agent tasks, and computer use. It features a 200K token context window, uses far fewer tokens for the same work, and costs much less at $5 per million input tokens. Developers can now access it through APIs, apps, and platforms like Amazon Bedrock and GitHub Copilot, with engineers noting its strength on complex bugs. Source: CNBC-TV18
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Oracle $ORCL is now approaching its largest drawdown in a decade Source: Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay
