Another day, another multi decade high for US bond yields
Interestingly, US10Y, US20Y, and US30Y have all jumped by 40 bps on average ever since the Treasury Secretary said "I am the house now, bet against me if you dare" US10Y is now the highest since 2007. US20Y and US30Y are both the highest since 2002. Turns out the bond vigilantes took that dare. Source: Bull Theory
Michael Burry says he has covered his short positions on $MU, $NBIS, $CAT, $SOXX, $CRWV, $NVDA, and $PLTR.
He says he replaced many of these short positions with put positions, and cited tax loss harvesting as some of the motivation behind these changes. He says he believes the AI bubble "may burst sooner rather than later." Source: Trend Spider
Anthropic IPO prospectus leaked to Reuters
Anthropic files for an IPO that could value the company at more than $2 TRILLION, per Reuters. Details from Anthropic's IPO prospectus: 1. Reported a net loss of $42B in 2025. 2. Anthropic plans to spend $518B on future cloud, computing and infrastructure commitments. 3. Operating loss increased to $8.06B from $2.98B in 2024. 4. Its IPO valuation could exceed $2 TRILLION, more than double its $965B valuation in May. 5. Revenue surged 12x in 2025 to $4.6B. 6. Almost 25% of its revenue came from just two customers. The IPO could be pushed back until after the November US midterm elections. Source: Bull Theory, Wolf financial
"Never bet against America" - Warren Buffet
Foreign Investors pumped $426 Billion into U.S. Stocks during the 2nd quarter, the largest inflow in history, shattering the previous record of $299 Billion set in 2022 Source: FT, BofA
The 2020s are an era of fiscal excess, political populism, de-globalization, resource colonization, trade/AI wars and an inflationary boom.
In one chart, that’s US nominal GDP up 63% in the past six years while the price of the 30-year US Treasury is down 60%. For comparison, that is roughly what happens to a meme stock... except this one is the world’s “risk-free” asset. Source: BofA
Today’s "AI Big 10" (Mag 7 plus Broadcom, AMD and Micron) is 41% of US market cap, which is where all previous major bubbles peaked
Source: zerohedge, BofA
Which AI model to use?
Source. Luis Rodrigues
Global money supply just hit a new all time high of $103.66 TRILLION.
Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC alone added $1 trillion in August, the 10th straight monthly increase. More money printed means more money flowing into assets like stocks and scarce assets. Source: Bull Theory
