Fed cuts rates by 25bps in unanimous decision as expected. So what did the Fed do?
👉 FED LOWERS BENCHMARK RATE 25 BPS TO 4.5%-4.75% RANGE 👉 FED SAYS RISKS TO GOALS REMAIN 'ROUGHLY IN BALANCE’ 👉 FED: LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE 'GENERALLY EASED' No dissent on this rate-cut decision. 🚨 Key changes: - Most notably, removing language that Fed has "gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainable toward 2 percent". - Adding that labor market conditions have "generally eased" since earlier in the year, replacing "job gains have slowed". Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
FLOWMAGEDDON: A Trump-inspired gusher of cash is flowing into risk-on ETFs, +$22b in one day is absurd, that is normally a good WEEK.
YTD net flows now +$856b, (55b away from annual record) and the rolling 1-year has passed $1T Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
Productivity
Source: SeekWiser
Quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Source: Strati Georgopoulos
Bitcoin priced in Gold is still 23% away from the all-time high.
FOMO starts at $90K 🤑 Source: Bitcoin Archive
Following the election, the SP500 typically rallies through inauguration day before moderating.
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA, The Daily Shot
2 months before the bear-market bottom, the Wall Street Journal felt safe enough to kick Saylor with this WRONG headline.
There were ignorant calls on 𝕏 that MicroStrategy would be liquidated, even though there were no margin calls on the debt, which were mostly long duration 5-6 year terms. Source: Bitcoin Archive
Théo — the French Whale on Polymarket — will make $50m on his $30m bet on Trump.
A very interesting post by @TrungTPhan on X: WSJ interviewed him again after election and he explained the key polling data that gave him conviction for his bet: “neigbour polls”. ▫️Polls failed to account for the “shy Trump voter effect,” Théo said. Either Trump backers were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported the former president, or they didn’t want to participate in polls, Théo wrote. To solve this problem, Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for. Théo cited a handful of publicly released polls conducted in September using the neighbor method alongside the traditional method. These polls showed Harris’s support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, compared with the result that came from directly asking which candidate they supported.▫️ The former bank trader (Théo is fake name he gave WSJ, which confirmed his identity through other methods) said he made the bet purely from financial standpoint (not tryign to make political statement).
