The "Bitcoin is dead" narrative just jumped the shark
Each cycle, Bitcoin is declared “dead,” but this ignores a deeper structural shift in monetary sovereignty. Behind the negative headlines, fundamentals are advancing: major U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act), rapid institutional adoption through asset tokenization, and crowded bearish positioning near the 200-week SMA. The transition from speculative asset to institutional financial infrastructure is painful but ongoing when the bear case relies on fear narratives, it often signals that the structural shift is already underway.
As shown on the chart below, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) and bitcoin look like twins...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin is experiencing severe sell-off pressure, with one of the worst days of the decade similar to past crisis moments (COVID crash, Terra Luna, FTX).
BTC is extremely oversold: daily RSI hit 16 and weekly RSI fell below 30 for only the 4th time ever. Historically, buying at these levels and holding for one year has delivered strong returns (+112% in 2015, +136% in 2019, +26% in 2022). Source: Trendspider
Big Tech is spending massively in AI as they all want to win the "AI war".
The combined 2026 capex for the Mag 7 now totals $655 BILLION. To put things in perspective, the German government special infrastructure fund is totalling €500 billion OVER 12 YEARS... ‼️ Source: The AI Investor
The End of the Buyback Era?
Mega-cap tech in the S&P 500 is undergoing a major shift. Before: buybacks exceeded CapEx, supporting valuation multiples. Now: CapEx exceeds buybacks, driven by the AI arms race.
Shares of automaker Stellantis plunged 23% in European trading on Friday
The company said it expects to take a 22-billion-euro ($26 billion) hit from a business reset and hinted at a pull-back from its electrification push. After Ford and General Motors announced large write-downs linked to their EV strategy, today Stellantis has announced it will take ~€22 billion ($26 billion) in impairments as it scales back its EV plans. With a brutal admission by the CEO ⬇️ Source: Javier Blas
The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling.
These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning". Source: Glassnode
US companies announced the largest number of job cuts for any January since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009
according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc Source: Bloomberg
