Syz the moment

While headlines focus on futures, the real stress is building in the physical market. North Sea crude for immediate delivery is surging as European and Asian refiners scramble to replace barrels lost during the month-long Strait of Hormuz blockade. And the key signal? Dated Brent—the benchmark for physical cargoes—is telling a very different story than futures. Dated Brent jumped 7% to $132 June Brent futures are still sitting around $95 That’s not just a gap. That’s a massive dislocation between real supply and paper pricing. Meanwhile, the squeeze is getting worse: Forties Blend—another spot market indicator—traded near $147/barrel Translation: The barrels you can get today are becoming dramatically more expensive than what the market thinks oil should cost tomorrow. Why this matters: When physical markets decouple from futures like this, it often signals: Immediate supply shortages Panic buying from refiners And potential repricing across the entire energy complex Bottom line: Are Physical prices already telling us what futures haven’t caught up to yet??? Source: Ole S Hansen, Saxo Bank

That was the 60th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut this month and one could make a strong case for a rate hike as inflation rates are about to spike higher. Source: Charlie Bilello

After all that ... it’s like nothing ever happened. Source: Charlie Bilello

That brings the weekly decline to 18%, as both sides of the trade moved further apart, pushing the pair to a fresh all-time low. Source: HolgerZ. Bloomberg

Claude Mythos is Anthropic's newest and most powerful AI model, announced just this week. It is described as "by far the most powerful AI model" Anthropic has ever developed — a step above even the Opus tier models, representing an entirely new tier of capability. Anthropic has deemed the model too dangerous for broad public release due to its extraordinary cybersecurity capabilities. It is currently only available to a select group of partners. Claude Mythos is apparently so good that Bessent and J. Powell summoned the bulge bank CEOs in a meeting to make sure they’re aware of how good Claude Mythos really is. Execs summoned include include $C Jane Fraser, $MS Ted Pick, $BAC Brian Moynihan, $WFC Charlie Scharf, and $GS David Solomon. Jamie Dimon $JPM couldn’t make it. More specifically, the meeting was about Mythos’s offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. Source: Negligible Capital

Source: TradingView

Source: Brian Sozzi

as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire. Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the FT on Wednesday that Iran wanted to collect tolling fees from any tanker passing and to assess each ship. He said that the tariff is $1 per barrel of hashtag#oil, adding that empty tankers can pass freely. “Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in hashtag#bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” Hosseini added. So why does Iran want to be paid in hashtag#bitcoin? Bacause: - It is portable - It is divisible - It can be trusted - It is economically & politically neutral - It has immutable monetary policy - It has perfect property rights But also because it preserves long-term purchasing power from finite energy exports. Indeed, storing oil revenues in traditional assets like US Treasury bonds can erode value over time, especially as energy prices rise faster than returns. Historical examples suggest Iran would struggle to repurchase the same oil it once sold. In contrast, assets like gold—and more recently Bitcoin—have better preserved or increased purchasing power relative to energy. Bitcoin, in particular, has dramatically outperformed oil prices since 2013. The conclusion is that commodity exporters may increasingly shift reserves into assets like gold and crypto to avoid losing value.