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But this is not due to markets passing judgment on the 2 countries' fiscal profiles. According to Barclays, China's super-low yields reflect its closed capital account, high savings rate, and lack of investable assets. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

Flattering their earnings and raising concerns that paper gains are overstating the strength of the AI boom. Source: FT

If the Fed hikes in September, it'll only do so to anchor long-term yields, though obviously that won't be the stated reason. As highlighted by Robin Brooks, Yield caps among rising debt and out-of-control deficits are the bread and butter of the debasement trade. Gold might keep rising. Despite the rate hike. Because it is view as the ultimate hedge against money debasement. Source: Robin Brooks

Source: Otavio (Tavi) Costa

Many of the industry’s biggest cash-generating drugs will lose exclusivity this decade. Novo Nordisk could see 77% of its 2025 sales exposed by 2033, while Keytruda—a $32 billion blockbuster—is set to lose patent protection before 2030. Once generics and biosimilars enter the market, revenues can collapse within just a few years. The industry’s response? Buy growth. Pharmaceutical companies announced $114 billion of deals last quarter—the highest level since 2019. That wave of M&A is driving capital into biotech, helping the sector gain more than 30% this year. With $440 billion of revenue potentially at risk, Big Pharma’s race to replenish its pipeline is creating a powerful bid for takeover targets across the biotech sector. Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®

David Einhorn -4.1% Cathie Wood -4.6% Warren Buffett -11.0% Bill Ackman -13.4% Carl Icahn -22.0% Michael Saylor -31.6% Source: AskLivermore

Here's how the AI buildout is actually being funded. 👇 A neocloud spins up an SPV. NVIDIA sells GPUs into it. Private credit funds it via a delayed-draw term loan. A compute customer signs a multi-year contract, and those payments fully amortize the debt. Clean. Ring-fenced. Off the parent's balance sheet. But look at the left side of the diagram. That's the part that matters. NVIDIA guarantees a revenue floor over the contract life — and takes revenue-share upside in return. Translation: lenders are no longer underwriting a leveraged neocloud's ability to re-lease depreciating silicon in 2030. They're underwriting NVIDIA's balance sheet. That single feature unlocks billions in private credit. Three things I'd watch: 🔁 Circularity. NVDA sells the chips, may hold equity in the buyer, may hold equity in the end customer, and now floors the revenue. Recognized revenue is increasingly supported by capital and guarantees that NVDA itself provides. That doesn't make the revenue fake, but it does mean revenue quality and the durability of demand are harder to assess from the income statement alone. 📉 Correlation. The floor commitment is an off-balance-sheet-style obligation whose value depends on compute pricing. It's cheap for NVDA in a tight market and expensive in a glut — precisely correlated with when NVDA's core business would also be deteriorating. Worth watching the disclosure in the commitments and contingencies footnote. 🏦 Risk location. The equity tranche is thin and held by neocloud parents; the debt is held by private credit funds and, increasingly, securitized. If utilization or pricing disappoints, first-loss hits neocloud equity, and NVDA's floor is what stands between private credit and impairment. It's the vendor-financing pattern from telecom in 1999-2000, though with a genuinely different feature: the offtake contracts here are largely signed with investment-grade counterparties before the capital is drawn, which was not true of the fiber build. Source: Morgan Stanley Research

That's what happens when one company becomes the core infrastructure layer behind the fastest capital spending cycle in tech history. Source: @StockSavvyShay