🔴Hedge funds are pulling back from gold at the fastest pace in months:
Net long positions in gold dropped -23% last week, to 93,438 contracts, the lowest in 15 weeks and near the lowest in at least 12 months. This comes after gold suffered its biggest single-day plunge since 2013 on January 30. Net long positioning has now fallen -60% from the February 2025 peak of ~240,000 contracts. Hedge fund sentiment on precious metals is shifting rapidly. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
GOOGL selling 100-year debt 😯
Source: Bloomberg
🚨There is BARELY any cash on the sidelines:
Cash levels in US equity funds fell to 1.1%, an ALL-TIME LOW. This is HALF the percentage seen just 3 years ago. US equity mutual fund cash balances as a % of total assets have been in a downtrend for the last 18 years. Nominally, cash and liquid assets fell to $135 billion, the lowest since 2013. Almost every equity fund is ALL-IN on US stocks. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
🔥Gold fund inflows are going parabolic:
Cumulative inflows to gold funds have surged to +$127 billion since 2020, according to BofA. Nearly +$120 BILLION has come since the start of 2025. Meanwhile, gold and gold mining ETFs received a record $91.86 billion worth of inflows in 2025, more than 8 TIMES the total in 2024. This all comes as gold hit multiple record highs over the last 2 years, and central bank buying remains historically elevated. Source: Global Markets Investor, BofA
J.P. Morgan in 1912: "Gold is money. Everything else is credit."
Source: Barchart
Alphabet has attracted >$100bn of orders for a bond sale that’s expected to be ~$15bn, BBG reports, citing people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The demand is among the strongest ever seen for a corporate bond offering, showing investor hunger to buy debt tied to the AI boom. Alphabet has also mandated banks for potential Swiss franc and Sterling debt offerings, including a rare 100-year Sterling note. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The AI action is in Asia
See below chart with SK Hynix, Samsung or Advantest all sky rocketing. Meanwhile, Nvidia $NVDA (below line in yellow) remains stuck Source: LESG, TME
"A pair trade for the AI transition: long API / short slides"
🚨 The "Software is Dead" Narrative is Wrong. You’re Just Looking at the Wrong Software. The market is panicking. The $IGV hashtag#etf is down 30%. The headlines say AI is writing code now, so software companies are toast. 📉 They’re making a massive Category Error. If you're investing without looking at the "plumbing," you're missing the biggest bifurcation of the decade. Here is how the "Singularity" is actually playing out: 1. The Victim: Human-UI SaaS (Type 1) 🖱️ If your software requires a human to stare at a dashboard for 8 hours, you have a target on your back. The Logic: AI agents replace humans. One less Customer Service rep = one less Zendesk seat. One less PM = one less Monday.com seat. The Result: Seat-based SaaS compresses as headcount shrinks. 2. The Winner: Bot-Infrastructure (Type 2) 🤖 AI agents don't have eyes. They use APIs. They don't click; they call. The Logic: One human generates a few clicks an hour. One AI agent generates thousands of API calls per minute. The Winners: The "Tollbooth Operators"—Okta, MongoDB, Snowflake, Datadog. They don't care if the user is a human or a bot; they charge per unit of consumption. Bots consume orders of magnitude more than we do. 🪦 The Real Casualty: The "Body Shops" The IT outsourcing model (Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant) is built on Labor Arbitrage. Hire for $15/hr in Bangalore, bill for $80/hr in NYC. The Problem: AI makes labor arbitrage worthless. You can’t get cheaper than "nearly free." The Proof: India's Big 4 are already cutting thousands of heads. The hiring machine has stopped. 🛑 The Bottom Line: The market is selling "Technology" as a monolith. This is a mistake. AI replaces Road Workers (IT services/Human-UI). AI pays Tolls (Infrastructure/APIs). The Play: Buy the dip in APIs. Short the slides. The infrastructure layer is the only place to hide when the bots take over.
