The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect:
The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
This could be among the reasons the market rallied yesterday
NEW YORK TIMES: Iran offered to suspend their nuclear enrichment program for 5 years. JD Vance asked for 20. While Trump rejected the 5 year offer, a second round of talks are likely, potentially in Pakistan again, by the end of this week. ⚠️ Why is this BULLISH? The fact that Iran even offered a 5-year suspension means they are WILLING to talk. The US obviously wants more years, but all the market cares about is that a deal is reached. Maybe we settle at 10 years, maybe 20. The point is…this might now become a question of WHEN a deal is reached vs. IF it is reached. Seems like that’s what the market priced in yesterday as well as we went up 1% and continued the best stretch of momentum since October 2025. Source: amitisinvesting
$SAP, a German software company, is down -50% from its all-time high.
Source: Hedgeye
5.0 Million b/d US Exports Just Hit Record As Hormuz Flatlines
+23% above March.... In 1 month This isn't a coincidence. It's the market rerouting. Hormuz closes → Asian buyers panic → empty VLCCs race to US Gulf Coast → American crude fills the gap Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 has closed green on the year for the first time in 27 trading days.
That looks to me like V-shape... $SPY Source: Trend Spider
From the FT: OpenAI investors question $852bn valuation as strategy shifts
OpenAI’s $852bn valuation is facing scrutiny as it shifts strategy toward enterprise AI, competing with Anthropic while maintaining ChatGPT’s consumer lead. Some investors worry the company is unfocused and vulnerable, especially as Anthropic’s rapid revenue growth challenges its position. The Claude-maker’s annualised revenue surged from $9bn at the end of 2025 to $30bn at the end of March, driven by demand for its coding tools. Anthropic’s business appears to have leapfrogged OpenAI, which hit $25bn in annualised revenue in February, though the companies use different accounting methods to book revenue, making direct comparison difficult. Despite raising $122bn and strong leadership confidence, OpenAI is cutting side projects and prioritizing higher-margin tools like Codex. It is also expanding infrastructure and workforce. However, strategic pivots, abandoned initiatives, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google raise concerns about execution and long-term valuation ahead of a potential IPO.
Talking about a K-shape economy...
The gap between Wall Street and Main Street has never been bigger: ➡️ Main Street: US consumer sentiment is down to 47.6 points, the lowest level in history. ➡️Wall Street: the S&P 500 is trading just 3% from its all-time high. ⚠️ Since the 2020 pandemic, consumer sentiment has fallen -50%. During the same period, the S&P 500 has rallied +205%. This comes as inflation, rising housing costs, and a weakening job market are increasingly squeezing the average American household. Meanwhile, 87% of all equities are held by the wealthiest 10% of households. Asset owners are the biggest winners in this economy. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, zerohedge
In case you missed it... $INTC Intel has risen an absurd 53% over the past 9 trading days
It is now up over 200% since the Trump Administration purchase @ $20.47 Source: Trend Spider
