What absorbed the Hormuz oil shock?
~35% of the gap: pipelines + new supply ~20%: inventory drawdowns ~45%: lower oil consumption The shock absorbers worked. But some are temporary, and the cushion is wearing thin. Source: McKinsey
SoftBank is seeking more than $11 Billion in junk bonds in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever, per Bloomberg.
Part of the money will be used to fund another investment in OpenAI. SoftBank has now committed almost $65 billion to OpenAI and has already sold $15 billion of bonds this year, making it the biggest junk-rated borrower in bond markets in 2026. Its borrowing costs are also rising, with its 2031 dollar bond yield hitting 8.2%, up from 6.7% in January. Source: Bull Theory
US Treasury yields are flashing a warning for tech stocks
US Treasury yields are raising concerns for tech stocks. The 10-year yield has climbed above 5%, a level historically associated with sharp Nasdaq 100 pullbacks. Because technology stocks are valued heavily on future growth, they are particularly sensitive to higher bond yields. With the S&P 500 already near record highs, a further rise in the 10-year yield, especially above 5.10%, could increase the risk of a market correction. Source: Global Markets Investor
Bolsonaro now has the highest odds of winning the upcoming Brazil elections by a considerable margin
Source: Polymarkets
We were talking about the broadening of the market from mid May until Aug 1.. then it reversed. Equal weight SPX has been lagging SPY since Aug 1.
Source: Bloomberg, TBC
This chart shows how markets have performed so far in September, with the Magnificent Seven currently carrying the torch.
Source: Citi Securities through RBC
Another interesting divergence
-> UST 30Y yields (in red) are soaring -> Inflation long-term market expectations Swap Forward 5Y5Y (in green) are flat since the start of the war... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge
Diesel trading as if Brent was $180
Source: zerohedge
