China's oil supply pre-war:
29% Other Middle East, Hormuz blocked 26% Rest of world , scrambling 20% Russia, back to sanction as US just confirmed 14% Saudi Arabia , 700K bpd offline 11% Iran, blockaded⚠️ That's 54% of China's oil either blocked, sanctioned or disrupted. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
“Brazil: the new gold”
Source: BofA
Trump said China had allegedly agreed not to supply weapons to Iran as part of deal tied to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Says he is opening the strait "for China too, and the World" - He expects to meet Xi soon. Claims Xi Jinping will give him "a big, fat, hug" when he visits in a few weeks - Says both countries are "working together smartly and very well" - Adds the U.S. remains "far better than anyone else" at fighting if needed - "This situation will never happen again"
The underperformance in "secular growth stocks" according to Goldman "has reflected a sharp contraction in valuation multiples.
Since the peak in broad US equity market valuation multiples in October 2025, valuations for companies with high expected sales growth have de-rated sharply. The forward P/E for median Rule of 10 secular growth stock has declined from 36x in October 2025 to 27x, which ranks in just the 35th percentile since 2010." Source: Goldman Sachs, Neil Sethi
$8 TRILLION.
That’s how much US debt is coming due this year. Every dollar borrowed since 2020… Now needs to be refinanced in 2026. Back then? Interest rates were basically zero. Today? They’re staring at 4.5%+. — This isn’t just a number. It’s a pressure cooker: • $8T rolling over at higher costs • Oil prices creating fresh uncertainty • Inflation picking up again • Growth slowing down — Same debt. Very different world. And here’s the real issue: The US doesn’t just have a debt problem… It has a refinancing problem. Because when trillions reset at higher rates, everything becomes more expensive — fast. — So what’s the priority? Keep bond yields low. At all costs. Because if yields spike… This $8 trillion wave turns into something much bigger. Source: Crypto Tice
CTAs are projected to buy stocks in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO over the next week, up to a total of $44 Billion 🥳🤯👀📈
Source: Barchart
It's not surprising to see the S&P 500 back within 1% of all-time highs.
The Iran conflict turned so many investors bearish but the rebound was inevitable. The S&P 500 is up 14.2% on average after a geopolitical shock dating back to the Korean War. Source: Phil Rosen
We can always use a bit of good news, right?
This chart from BofA shows that the US economy has become more and more resilient to oil shocks over time. Source: Markets & Mayhem
