The S&P 500 averages +4.6% in midterm years dating back to 1950.
It's already up 11% halfway through 2026. Stocks are outpacing their own history by a mile this year. Source: Phil Rosen
The U.S. technology sector has surged 42% in the last two months, marking its biggest two-month rally in 24 years as AI and semiconductor stocks lead the market higher.
Source: Bloomberg
Nice chart of how big SpaceX and Anthropic are at IPO vs the mega studs that have been public for years.
Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
Google Stock Buybacks Per Year
AI is a capital intensive business. Source: Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl
ISM manufacturing PMI accelerates to 4-year high with improving production, new orders, and employment.
Prices remain 2nd highest since 2022. Source Bloomberg
The 1997 analogy on the S&P 500 (current in yellow vs. 1997 cycle in red)
There are plenty of tempting short signals out there, but markets driven by momentum and speculation rarely stop simply because they look expensive. For now, the 1997 analogy continues to prevail. The crowd keeps chasing upside, leverage keeps building, and downside protection remains unwanted. History suggests that can continue longer than expected. History also suggests it eventually matters... Source: TME
The BTC top coincided with the moment the AI narrative went parabolic.
One possible explanation is that speculative capital has simply found a higher-beta home in AI. SK Hynix remains one of the key AI mania names to watch. Is an AI bear market the only thing that can bring those flows back to crypto? If so, BTC bulls may find themselves in the unusual position of rooting for weakness in the very risk assets that have driven markets higher. Source: TME
GOOGLE $GOOGL JUST ANNOUNCED AN $80 BILLION CAPITAL RAISE TO BUILD AI INFRASTRUCTURE
And Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B is writing a $10 billion check to get in. Here's the full breakdown: THE DEAL: - $30B in underwritten public offerings - $40B through an at-the-market stock program starting Q3 2026 - $10B private placement to Berkshire Hathaway THE BERKSHIRE PIECE: - $5B in Class A Common Stock at $351.81 per share - $5B in Class C Capital Stock at $348.20 per share - Berkshire has been building this position since Q3 2025 THE PURPOSE: - Scale AI compute infrastructure to meet "unprecedented customer demand" - Approximately $30B of the ATM proceeds will cover 2026 employee equity tax obligations - Remaining proceeds go directly to AI infrastructure buildout Source: Evan
