A volatile first half of the year ends with rates rising across the board last week

Global equity markets performance between 26 June–3 July 2026 was marked by a partial unwind of an unprecedented Q2 chip rally, a softer US jobs report that eased near-term Fed tightening expectations, a European defence-and-industrials rally ahead of the NATO Ankara summit, and extreme volatility in South Korean chipmakers that dragged emerging markets sharply lower.

Meanwhile, Trump’s personal crypto earnings in 2025 topped the combined profits of every publicly listed US crypto company. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week mixed, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones advancing while the Russell 2000 declined. We note that Momentum stocks fell 18% on Wednesday & Thursday. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday. On the macro front, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, missing estimates (110,000) and marking the softest reading since February’s negative print. Prior months were also revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Following the report, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting dropped from around 29% to about 18%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. On Wednesday, private payrolls firm ADP also reported that private employers added a lower-than-expected 98,000 jobs in June, down from 122,000 in May.

Oil prices down to their pre-conflict levels drive rates and expectations for central banks lower, credit markets digest record issuance in June

Global equity markets sold off sharply in the week to Friday 26 June 2026, as investors reassessed AI-related valuations against a backdrop of hawkish Federal Reserve signalling and sticky inflation. The MSCI ACWI fell 2.2%, with technology and semiconductors bearing the brunt of the decline — the Nasdaq 100 lost 4.2% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF shed 7.7%. The sell-off was sharpest in AI-exposed markets across North Asia, with the KOSPI and TAIEX both falling over 5%. Defensives and small-caps outperformed globally, with healthcare, insurance, and consumer staples all posting gains. Micron's record quarterly earnings provided a late-week counterpoint, but were insufficient to reverse the broader de-rating of growth assets.

Just months ago, consensus called for a weaker dollar and higher gold & silver. Five months later, everything changed. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week mixed, as renewed weakness in large-cap tech and AI-related shares weighed heavily on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index, while the small-cap Russell 2000 Index and Dow advanced 1.01% and 0.60%, respectively. As measured by Russell indexes, large-cap value stocks outpaced their growth counterparts by 368 basis points, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index also solidly outperformed its market cap-weighted peer. On the US macro side, PCE inflation accelerated but spending and income rose. June business activity improved as GDP growth was revised higher.

Keir Starmer has announced that he will step down as the UK Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party. He will remain at Downing Street as caretaker PM until a successor is chosen, ensuring continuity of government.

Warsh’s focus on inflation fuels rate hike expectations and drives real rates higher