U.S. equity indexes finished lower in a volatile week shaped by geopolitical tensions and resulting volatility in oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a somewhat hawkish interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals. The Dow Jones fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq, which shed 2.07%. The S&P MidCap 400 Index held up best but still fell 1.34%. Within the S&P 500 Index, energy was the best-performing sector by a wide margin as oil prices moved higher amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply risks. U.S. Treasury yields also mostly moved higher amid the heightened uncertainty, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to around 4.38% as of Friday afternoon.

War, oil shocks, and market volatility—normally a perfect storm for gold. Yet prices have collapsed. The answer lies not in fear, but in the mechanics of global reserve flows.

The US Federal Reserve keeps key rates unchanged amid the current Middle East crisis

The repricing in interest rate prospects continues, credit and EMD markets show only moderate signs of stress so far

The hot commodity of the week: oil. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

U.S. stocks fell for a 3rd consecutive week as Middle East tensions and oil market volatility weighed on investor sentiment. Concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, stress in private credit markets, and trade policy uncertainty added to market pressure. The Dow Jones led losses (down about 2%) while the Nasdaq Composite declined less but still fell 1.26%. Recent U.S. data showed mixed signals on inflation and growth. Core CPI rose 0.2% in February (2.5% year over year), while headline CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core PCE, rose 0.4% in January, with the annual rate unexpectedly climbing to 3.1%, the highest since early 2024.

Surging energy prices shake rate markets, spreads face moderate upside pressures so far

The Iran conflict and resulting oil shock completely reshaped markets last week, driving a broad risk off move, sharply higher energy prices, and heightened caution across cyclicals.

Meanwhile, Europe’s import-dependent economy remains highly exposed to oil price shocks. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the volatile week lower as investors digested escalating conflict in the Middle East in the wake of U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, rising energy-driven inflation risks, and some mixed economic data. Oil prices surged amid concerns about potential supply disruptions and broader geopolitical spillovers. Uncertainty about the conflict’s duration and its potential impact on energy markets also drove U.S. Treasury trading, pushing yields higher as investors reassessed inflation risks and the outlook for Fed policy.