--- title: IMF rings alarm bells on 2025 Growth Outlook description: Meanwhile, the US economic slowdown could worsen as the tariff battle with China escalates into a tit-for-tat trade war. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### IMF rings alarm bells on 2025 Growth Outlook Meanwhile, the US economic slowdown could worsen as the tariff battle with China escalates into a tit-for-tat trade war. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 04/28/2025** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/awyneken/OneDrive%20-%20Banque%20Syz%20SA/Desktop/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_250428.pdf) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## The IMF made large downward revisions to economic growth this year   The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply downgraded its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing soaring US tariffs and escalating trade tensions. It lowered growth estimates for the US, China, and many other countries, warning that continued trade disputes could slow growth even more. The IMF announced on Tuesday an updated World Economic Outlook, compiled just 10 days after President Trump announced universal tariffs on nearly all trading partners and higher rates on many countries—which are now currently suspended. The IMF lowered its global growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 points to 3% for 2026, down from its earlier estimate of 3.3% for both years. It also said inflation is now expected to fall more slowly than previously thought, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with significant upward revisions for the US and other advanced economies. The IMF described the report as a 'reference forecast' based on data up to 4 April, noting the rapidly changing and complex global situation.   ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-25-2025-12-58-30-8209-PM.png?width=773&height=633&name=image-png-Apr-25-2025-12-58-30-8209-PM.png) Source: FT, TRT World --- #### Chart #2 — ## Why this US economic slowdown could hit harder In past economic downturns, US economic pain was often softened by falling bond yields and a rising dollar, which led to lower interest rates and boosting consumer spending power. This time, however, the opposite is happening. Bond yields remain high, and the dollar is far from strengthening. Households and businesses are exposed to tighter credit, sticky inflation, and fewer financial incentives. With the usual shock absorbers missing, the impact of the economic slowdown could be significantly more painful. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-25-2025-12-59-35-5137-PM.png?width=893&height=509&name=image-png-Apr-25-2025-12-59-35-5137-PM.png) Source: FT --- #### Chart #3 — ## Tit-for-tat retaliation between China and the US   Although the Trump administration granted a 90-day tariff pause to most countries, China was left out of the list. Tariffs on Chinese goods soared to a staggering 145%. However, after weeks of tit-for-tat measures, the bold threats soon gave way to a more cautious tone. “145% is very high and it won’t be that high,” Trump told reporters during an Oval Office Q&A. “It won’t be anywhere near that high. It’ll come down substantially. But it won’t be zero.” Decoupling from the world’s manufacturing giant is easier said than done, especially when American supply chains still heavily depend on Chinese production. According to the World Trade Organization, Chinese exports to the US are expected to decrease by 77% in 2025. China is set to make up ground elsewhere—while exports to the rest of North America are forecasted to rise by 25%. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-00-24-7867-PM.png?width=720&height=720&name=image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-00-24-7867-PM.png) Source: Statista @StatistaCharts, WTO --- #### Chart #4 — ## You don’t lose until you sell The S&P 500 has returned an average of 11% per year since 1950 and has done so despite an average intra-year drawdown of 14%, and often drawdowns that are much worse. The lesson? Volatility doesn’t equal a permanent financial loss unless you sell. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-01-09-6960-PM.png?width=751&height=708&name=image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-01-09-6960-PM.png) Source: Peter Mallouk --- #### Chart #5 — ## Brutal Q1 for Tesla Tesla reported a rough first quarter, missing both revenue and earnings expectations. Automotive revenue fell by 20% year-over-year, while total revenues dropped 9%. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased by 17%. Surprisingly, despite the disappointing results, Tesla shares rose nearly 5% the following day. The market reacted positively to two key updates: Tesla confirmed it will a robotaxi pilot in Austin this June and start pilot production of its humanoid robots in Fremont later this year. Additionally, Elon Musk vowed he will reduce his involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) starting next month and dedicate more of his time to Tesla. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-02-04-1752-PM.png?width=630&height=724&name=image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-02-04-1752-PM.png) Source: Quartr --- #### Chart #6 — ## China’s gold rush China has dramatically increased its gold reserves, reaching a historic high of approximately 73.7 million troy ounces. Over the past 30 months alone, the country added about 11 million ounces, bringing gold to represent roughly 7.1% of its total foreign reserves, also a record level. This sustained accumulation reflects China's strategic aim to diversify away from the US dollar. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-02-44-4213-PM.png?width=858&height=483&name=image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-02-44-4213-PM.png) Source: Global Markets Investor --- #### Chart #7 — ## China has accumulated 70% of the world's AI patents According the 2025 AI Index Report, America’s share has fallen from roughly 40% in 2010, to 14% in 2023. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-03-26-8285-PM.png?width=549&height=683&name=image-png-Apr-25-2025-01-03-26-8285-PM.png) Source: Visual Capitalist --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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