Diesel trading as if Brent was $180
Source: zerohedge
An interesting dichotomy...
Long-dated US Treasury 30y yield (in red) is rising based on the de-dollarization narrative (Fed credibility and/or fiscal fears) Meanwhile, USA CDS (in green) is trading at its lowest level (best credit risk) since before the start of the war... Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
Foreign demand for UST 20Y paper has collapsed as Indirects plunge to 52.5%, lowest on record.
Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
The corporate buyback blackout begins this week
Approximately 40% of S&P 500 companies are expected to enter blackout periods. This transition typically tempers one of the market’s most consistent sources of demand. Source: TME, GS
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield jumps above 5% for the first time since 2023
Source: Barchart
USTs are by far having their worst performance in American history
Source: Lukas Ekwueme
Productivity is falling below trend
"Despite $1.5tn spent in past 3 years, scant evidence yet of economy-wide productivity gains; in fact, total factor productivity is falling below trend, a measure highly correlated the past 50 years with consumer confidence; sometimes Main St knows what Wall St doesn’t" - BofA, Michael Hartnett Source: zerohedge
Everyone wants S&P 500 8,000. History says slow down.
Since 1998 the index has needed a median of 578 trading days to clear each 1,000-point level. At that pace 8,000 doesn't land until around mid-2028, and SPX just closed lower every day this week at 7,591. Betting on 8,000 this year puts you early by about 18 months. Of course, if you start thinking in % terms things look very different. Which makes this analysis flawed. Source: Bloomberg
