Jamie Dimon: U.S. Economy Remains Resilient Despite Softer Labor Markets
$JPM JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: "The U.S. economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time..." Source: The Transcript
US government interest payments are now up to an annualized record of $1.47 trillion.
The Sovereignty Trap: By offshoring industry to China for higher margins, the West traded its independence for cheap labor; China now controls the minerals essential for Defense, EVs, and tech. Resource vs. Currency: The ability to print money is irrelevant if China refuses to sell the raw materials required for survival and industry. The Great Rebuild: To regain independence, Western nations are aggressively reshoring industry, stockpiling minerals, and rebuilding infrastructure. The Irony of Tech: Building the "New Economy" (Silicon Valley, AI, Green Tech) is impossible without massive amounts of "Old Economy" materials like copper, lithium, and steel. Source: Topdown charts, LSEG, Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
CPI: 2.7% YoY vs. 2.7% expected Core CPI: 2.6% YoY vs. 2.7% expected
Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than predicted in December, reinforcing hopes that inflation is tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates. The consumer price index, a broad measure of the costs for goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, posted an increase of 0.3% for the month, putting the headline all-items annual rate at 2.7%. Both were exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.2% gain on a monthly basis and 2.6% annually. Both were 0.1 percentage point below expectations. Source: CNBC Peter Tuchman, @EinsteinoWallSt
"US flip from exceptionalism to expansionism is best case for a contrarian US dollar long" (BofA Hartnett)
Source: TME
All major equity markets outperformed the US in 2025
Source: Goldman
One of the greatest market comebacks in history
On April 8, the S&P 500 was down over 15% on the year, its 4th worst start to a year ever. But after a 38% rally, it's now up 17% on the year, hitting 37 all-time highs along the way. Source: Charlie Bilello
$VIX dropped to 14 today, down from 26 just a month ago
Is volatility "too low"? In each of the last 8 times this happened, $SPX was higher a month later. Source: Subu Trade
The odds of a January rate cut have fallen to just 22% 🚨
Source: Barchart @Barchart
