Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion
The US economy is running HOT. But the fed is going to cut rates... Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Since a 25bps rate cut is fully priced in, the main focus for markets will be whether the median 2025 dot shows 50bp or 75bp of cuts
With little change in the macro forecasts - for now - Bank of America thinks the 2025 median will continue to show 50bp of cuts, even as the distribution of dots moves down. Alternatively, Goldman now expects 75bps of rate cuts this year and another 50 next year. Clearly, it's all a close call for now. The dot plot should then show one more 25bp cut in 2027, although with Powell on his way out in May 2026 all bets are off regarding the longer horizon. The longer-run median is likely to stay at 3.0%. With that in mind, here is what Bank of America thinks the names behind tomorrow's dots will look like. Of particular interest will be the Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran dots. Source: BofA
Senate votes 48-47 to confirm Stephen Miran to Fed board
Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon, Blomberg
September FOMC: odds on the Fed’s rate decision
Source: Polymarket
Donald Trump has called for US companies to stop reporting quarterly results
He added that a shift to publishing figures twice a year will save them cash and allow executives to focus on their businesses. The US president issued his call in a post on his Truth Social network on Monday, contrasting standard practice in the US with what he depicted as China’s more long-term approach. Most publicly listed US companies are required to file quarterly and annual financial filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, known respectively as 10-Q and 10-K disclosures. “Subject to SEC Approval, Companies and Corporations should no longer be forced to ‘Report’ on a quarterly basis . . . but rather to Report on a ‘Six (6) Month Basis’,” Trump said. “This will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.” Source: FT
"MAYBE WE’LL PAY OFF OUR $35 TRILLION HANDING THEM A CRYPTO CHECK, A LITTLE BITCOIN"
Source: Documenting Saylor @saylordocs
US Federal Government Spending as % of GDP...
1950s: 17%, 1960s: 18%, 1970s: 21%, 1980s: 22%, 1990s: 21%, 2000s: 20%, 2010s: 23%, 2020s: 27%. Source: Charlie Bilello
Financial Times:
"Apollo Global Management has amassed a short position against the debt of a US automotive parts supplier that has come under scrutiny for its accounting policies and financing techniques. Apollo holds a credit default swap against First Brands Group, according to five people familiar with the matter, an Ohio-based seller of windscreen wipers and fuel pumps that last month shelved a $6bn loan deal because of concerns about its financial reporting. The derivative contract means that Apollo will profit if FBG fails to continue paying its debts. The trade has pitted one of the largest private credit specialists on Wall Street, with $840bn in assets, against a company that has borrowed billions of dollars away from the glare of public debt markets. In order to short FBG’s private debt, Apollo obtained a so-called “bespoke” contract written against the company’s loans, according to people familiar with the trade. They added that the firm had held the position for at least as long as a year and had paid a significant amount in fees to maintain the short". Link to article >>> https://lnkd.in/ejCPZSsY
