Syz the moment

"The Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about!" "If Iran had a Nuclear Weapon, the whole World would be held hostage. I am doing something with Iran, right now, that other Nations, or Presidents, should have done long ago." Source: Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh

The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% jump. The Southeast followed with 105, up +69%. Together, those two regions accounted for more than two-thirds of every farm bankruptcy in the country. Fertilizer prices are pouring gasoline on the fire. Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, has ripped +87% year-to-date and trades near $720 a tonne. For corn growers who depend on nitrogen, this is a dire situation. Many farmers are reporting they will cut the amount of fertilizer they use, shift from corn toward less nitrogen-dependent soybeans, or just take the yield loss. Farms are under pressure. Source: Hedgeye

Source: Barchart

Japan, once predicted in the 1980s to eclipse the American economy, is now significantly smaller. China now appears to be on a similar trajectory. In 2021, China’s GDP had risen to 76% of that of the United States, and many analysts believed it would surpass the U.S. before 2030. That expectation has since unraveled. By 2024, the U.S. economy stood at $29.2 trillion compared to China’s $18.9 trillion—a gap that has widened for three consecutive years. Meanwhile, China’s working-age population is declining, its fertility rate has dropped to around 1.0—well below replacement level—and there is little immigration to offset the demographic decline. Yet America benefits from believing it faces a formidable rival. The belief is what keeps it competing. Source: Martin Varsavsky

The US hedge fund long/short ratio has fallen below 2.0, even lower than during the 2025 April sell-off. This is despite equities trading near record highs. This comes as last week saw the largest net sales by hedge funds year-to-date, driven by long sales concentrated in US Tech Hardware and short additions focused on US Software. By comparison, the ratio was as high as 2.5 in December last year. Furthermore, retail investors recorded their largest weekly outflows year-to-date, driven by semiconductors, according to UBS. Source: UBS, Global Markets Investor

Treasury bought back $15,000,000,000 of its own debt to improve liquidity. Source: Bull Theory

Six hours ago Trump warned Iran to stop charging fees to tankers or face consequences. 1 hour later he escalated, saying "that is not the agreement we have." Source: TS

After all that ... it’s like nothing ever happened. Source: Charlie Bilello