The Fed is buying US Treasury bills (i.e short dated US government bonds) at a faster pace than during Covid.
- Covid: ~$320B - Last 7 months: ~$290B In just 7 months, the Fed has already bought almost as many Treasury bills as it did during Covid. In other words, the Fed is printing money to buy UST bills, thereby suppressing yields... How long until they will implement YCC? Source: Lukas Ekwueme
Just 8% of U.S. consumers expect their income to outpace inflation next year.
Source: Hedgeye Bloomberg
TARIFF REFUNDS ARE POURING BILLIONS INTO AMERICA’S BIGGEST COMPANIES
More than 40 S&P 500 companies reported $9.6B in tariff refunds, including $2.1B already received in cash. - Apple: $2.2B - Nike: $986M - FedEx: $800M - Amazon: $640M - GM: $500M Companies are getting their tariff money back, but the higher prices passed on to consumers haven’t come down. FedEx, Costco and Amazon say they’ll return tariff refunds to customers. Source: Bull Theory
Speculators are now the most long on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade
Source: Barchart
On the back of the cooler than expected PPI this morning (which followed the cool CPI), rate-hike expectations (for 2026) tumbled further yesterday to their lowest since Warsh's first FOMC meeting...
Source: zerohedge
In the month of July, the US Government collected $334 Billion. Just one problem…
They spent $766 Billion. A $432 BILLION deficit. In one month. Source: Geiger Capital
President Trump just now: “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz,” and Iran’s IRGC is “decimated and fleeing.”
Source: Bull Theory
US inflation continued to cool in July, broadly in line with expectations.
US CPI confirms disinflation is continuing, not accelerating. Headline CPI: 0.1% MoM, in line with 0.1% consensus Core CPI: 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY, unchanged Core CPI: 2.5% YoY, down from 2.6%. Lowest since March 2021. Real average hourly earnings: +0.2% YoY Energy fell 1.5% in July, and gasoline dropped 2.9%. Core goods inflation remained contained at 0.2% YoY. There is no inflationary case for a rate hike. At least at this stage. The absence of an upside inflation surprise was enough to reassure markets, with US equity futures moving higher following the release. On the less positive side: 1/ Inflation is still above target 2/ Further relief might be difficult to achieve if war in Iran keeps going Source. Daniel Lacalle
