Syz the moment

"He should be dropping interest rates IMMEDIATELY," Source: Bull Theory @BullTheoryio

“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” – Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” – Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget deficit under control.” – George H.W. Bush (1989) “We must put our fiscal house in order.” – Bill Clinton (1993) “We can pay down a large portion of the national debt.” – George W. Bush (2001) “Families across the country are tightening their belts … the federal government should do the same.” – Barack Obama (2010) “We will start to balance our budget and pay down our debt.” – Donald Trump (2016) “My plan will reduce the deficit.” – Joe Biden (2022) “We will balance the federal budget.” – Donald Trump (2024) Charlie Bilello

Source: Nick Sortor @nicksortor

Despite promises of escalation “20× harder,” the military campaign against Iran has already been intense, with 3,000 targets struck, most air defenses degraded, and dozens of warships sunk. Further escalation would likely target civilian infrastructure. However, this would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure stems from insurance withdrawals under Solvency II. Shipping remains constrained until insurers’ risk models normalize, regardless of military outcomes. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera on X

But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years.” Source: Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook

US wholesale inflation rose sharply in December as the producer price index (PPI) jumped 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, driven by higher service costs. Core PPI also accelerated, climbing 0.8% MoM and 3.6% YoY, well above forecasts. The surge pressures corporate margins, especially for companies lacking pricing power, and may influence inventory cycles and earnings revisions. Market reactions, particularly in bonds and high-multiple equities, often precede headline recognition, highlighting the importance of liquidity signals. Source: Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV

LONG-TERM: Morgan Stanley sees an opportunity for the President to alleviate some components of the existing tariff regime over time IN THE NEARER TERM: uncertainty will likely prevail in terms of which authorities will replace the existing tariffs, which sectors/countries will face more legally durable tariffs (Sec. 232/301 after months of investigation), and most importantly, what happens to the bilateral framework deals that are currently in place. That means the broader macro impact could be modest in the context of these two competing factors. Source: zerohedge

Goldman Sachs estimates that the changes will reduce the increase in the effective tariff rate since the start of 2025 from just over 10% to about 9% once the Sec. 122 tariffs are implemented. Source: Zerohedge