tariffs collected by Trump so far
Source: Bloomberg
Us Tariffs range from 8.3% to 15.3%
The headline: The trade-weighted average US tariff rate is now 13.2% under Section 122 at 15%. That's down from 15.3% before the ruling, but well above the 8.3% that would have applied with no replacement. Source: Global Trade Alert
Number of S&P Stocks Beating Index Is at Record (Bloomberg)
Roughly 66% of the individual stocks in the S&P 500 are beating the index so far this year — which would put it on pace for the highest level of breadth in the market in records going back to 1986. Source: Bloomberg, Christian Fromhertz
JUST IN: US Trade Deficit with China Shrinks to 21-Year Low
Source: zerohedge
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world.
That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their capital-light appeal due to rising capex and begin to be valued more like capital-intensive businesses. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
~$9.6 trillion of U.S. marketable government debt will mature over the next 12 months, the most ever.
That’s roughly 1/3 of ALL outstanding public debt that needs to be refinanced. Most of it was originally issued when rates were near zero. Now it refinances at 4–5%. The math: even a 2% average rate increase on $9.6T = ~$192B in added annual interest costs alone. For context, net interest on U.S. debt is already on pace to exceed $1 trillion/year in 2026, more than the defense budget. The largest refinancing wall in history is here. Source: @NoLimitGains on X
US equities market broadening in a few pics.
“Old economy” and interest-rates sensitive sectors have been outperforming lately Note there are also parts of the economy which are LESS subject to AI-disruption Source: Bloomberg, RBC
Wild market.
Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is 34%. Right now we're 1.5% below the all-time high. Source: Michael Batnick @michaelbatnick
