The Schiller P/E has hit 40 for the second time in history since the dotcom bubble.
Source: The Great Martis @great_martis
In case you missed it...
The Russell 2000 has joined the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 in hitting a record high – its first since 2021. That ends the longest drought without a new high in Russell 2000 ETF history. Source: J-C Parets
Yesterday's Russell 2000 heatmap by Finviz
That's a lot of green...
Happy FOMC day.
Stocks: all-time high Home Prices: all-time high Gold: all-time high Money Supply: all-time high National Debt: all-time high CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target" Time for the Fed to cut rates. Let's get this party started. Source: Trend Spider
Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion
The US economy is running HOT. But the fed is going to cut rates... Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Since a 25bps rate cut is fully priced in, the main focus for markets will be whether the median 2025 dot shows 50bp or 75bp of cuts
With little change in the macro forecasts - for now - Bank of America thinks the 2025 median will continue to show 50bp of cuts, even as the distribution of dots moves down. Alternatively, Goldman now expects 75bps of rate cuts this year and another 50 next year. Clearly, it's all a close call for now. The dot plot should then show one more 25bp cut in 2027, although with Powell on his way out in May 2026 all bets are off regarding the longer horizon. The longer-run median is likely to stay at 3.0%. With that in mind, here is what Bank of America thinks the names behind tomorrow's dots will look like. Of particular interest will be the Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran dots. Source: BofA
Senate votes 48-47 to confirm Stephen Miran to Fed board
Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon, Blomberg
September FOMC: odds on the Fed’s rate decision
Source: Polymarket
