Immune SPX?
The gap between SPX and inverse MOVE remains enormous. Equities keep trading as if the recent explosion in bond volatility is somebody else’s problem. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace Activate to view larger image,
The IRS just agreed to never audit Trump again.
A one-page addition quietly attached to yesterday's $1.8 billion settlement permanently bars the IRS from examining Trump's tax returns, his family, and his companies. The original settlement said nothing about taxes. This showed up the next day. Former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel said he was "unaware of a single precedent where the IRS has agreed in advance to permanently forgo examination of previously filed tax returns for a specific person or business." The settlement was sold as accountability. The extra page is a lifetime audit exemption for the president. Source: POLITICO, FT
President Trump called on AI companies to build, bring, or buy 100% of the energy needed for their data centers as part of his “Ratepayer Protection Pledge.”
Monthly tokens processed across Google surfaces: May 2024: 9.7T May 2025: ~480T May 2026: 3.2Q+ That is 7x Y/Y growth. Source: Wall St Engine
Here's why soaring yields do matter. Annual US interest expense is currently $1.3 trillion.
For context, the largest US government outlay is Social Security. It is $1.6 trillion. Source: zerohedge
Breadth within sp500 is narrowing
Source: Barclays, RBC
Inflation is now outpacing wages in America for the first time in 3 years.
Before the US-Iran war started in late February, inflation was sitting at 2.4%. It has risen to 3.8% in just two months, driven almost entirely by the energy price shock from the war. Real average hourly wages fell 0.5% in April alone and are now down 0.3% annually. Americans are earning more dollars but buying less with them. Source: Bull Theory
Republicans surge past Democrats in Senate midterm odds projected to remain in power.
Source: Polymarket
Trump just announced "Project Freedom," a U.S.-led operation to escort trapped ships out of the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.
- Dozens of neutral vessels from countries with no role in the conflict have been stuck in the Strait, running low on food and supplies - Trump says the U.S. will guide them safely out as a humanitarian gesture - Trump warned that any interference with the process "will have to be dealt with forcefully" - He added that U.S. representatives are having "very positive discussions" with Iran and that talks could lead to something positive for all sides Will Iran allow this or will they start firing on ships crossing and talking up their mines again?
