AI CapEx is the largest area of year-over-year cash use growth, followed by research and development.
> up 42% year-over-year > accelerating from 22% Buybacks, on the other hand, are out of favor. 🧐 > Falling to just 1% year-over-year > Had been up 6% Source: Markets & Mayhem
The Pentagon just announced 15,000 service members, guided-missile destroyers, over 100 aircraft, and unmanned platforms deployed to the Strait of Hormuz. Operation begins Monday morning.
Meanwhile, a senior U.S. official then told CNN, on the record, that Project Freedom "is NOT an escort mission." The Wall Street Journal said the same. The administration is calling it a coordination framework. Governments talking to insurance companies talking to shipping firms. 15,000 troops. 100 hundred aircraft. Guided-missile destroyers. Coordination framework??? really? Source: Brian Allen
There is a manufacturing boom underway in America.
Source: Anthony Pompliano
DONALD TRUMP JUST ERUPTED ON GERMAN'S CHANCELLOR MERZ
"The Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about!" "If Iran had a Nuclear Weapon, the whole World would be held hostage. I am doing something with Iran, right now, that other Nations, or Presidents, should have done long ago." Source: Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh
U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge +46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers
The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% jump. The Southeast followed with 105, up +69%. Together, those two regions accounted for more than two-thirds of every farm bankruptcy in the country. Fertilizer prices are pouring gasoline on the fire. Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, has ripped +87% year-to-date and trades near $720 a tonne. For corn growers who depend on nitrogen, this is a dire situation. Many farmers are reporting they will cut the amount of fertilizer they use, shift from corn toward less nitrogen-dependent soybeans, or just take the yield loss. Farms are under pressure. Source: Hedgeye
S&P 500 $SPX now trading at the very top of its 8-year trend line
Source: Barchart
The United States has a long track record of outlasting its rivals. The Soviet Union collapsed.
Japan, once predicted in the 1980s to eclipse the American economy, is now significantly smaller. China now appears to be on a similar trajectory. In 2021, China’s GDP had risen to 76% of that of the United States, and many analysts believed it would surpass the U.S. before 2030. That expectation has since unraveled. By 2024, the U.S. economy stood at $29.2 trillion compared to China’s $18.9 trillion—a gap that has widened for three consecutive years. Meanwhile, China’s working-age population is declining, its fertility rate has dropped to around 1.0—well below replacement level—and there is little immigration to offset the demographic decline. Yet America benefits from believing it faces a formidable rival. The belief is what keeps it competing. Source: Martin Varsavsky
Hedge funds were caught offside by the US stock market rally:
The US hedge fund long/short ratio has fallen below 2.0, even lower than during the 2025 April sell-off. This is despite equities trading near record highs. This comes as last week saw the largest net sales by hedge funds year-to-date, driven by long sales concentrated in US Tech Hardware and short additions focused on US Software. By comparison, the ratio was as high as 2.5 in December last year. Furthermore, retail investors recorded their largest weekly outflows year-to-date, driven by semiconductors, according to UBS. Source: UBS, Global Markets Investor
