Stairs up, ELEVATOR down in US space stocks:
The equal-weighted basket of 10 space sector stocks has COLLAPSED -50% since its peak, the largest drawdown since April 2025 and the 2nd-largest since the 2022 bear market. SpaceX, $SPCX, alone is down -32% since its mid-June peak. This comes after retail investors purchased $405 million of SpaceX shares during its first 5 trading days after its June 12 IPO, the largest first-week retail purchases of any IPO ever. Mom-and-pop investors also piled into leveraged ETFs linked to SpaceX, purchasing $65.8 million of the 2x Leveraged Long SpaceX ETF, $SPCH, over its first few trading sessions. The fund is down -56% since the June 16 peak, posted on the 2nd trading day after its launch. Source: Thomas Callum, Topdown charts
The US can't afford much higher interest rates.
Here's why: Over the next 12 months, the US Treasury must refinance roughly $8 trillion of debt. The average interest rate on that debt is about 3.3%. Today, the 1-year Treasury yields around 4%. Simply refinancing that $8 trillion at current rates would increase annual interest costs by roughly $50 billion. And that's before accounting for interest on an ongoing $2 trillion annual budget deficit. This is why today's fiscal backdrop is fundamentally different from the early 1980s. When Paul Volcker raised rates into the double digits, the US had already benefited from years of high inflation that dramatically reduced the debt burden relative to the economy. Today, debt levels are far higher. Every percentage point increase in borrowing costs has a much larger impact on the federal budget. The Fed isn't just fighting inflation anymore. It's operating with one eye on a balance sheet that has become increasingly sensitive to higher rates. The higher rates stay, the more expensive America's debt becomes. Source: Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance FT
Gold isn't about cash flows or valuations. It's about trust.
For centuries, gold anchored monetary systems and provided confidence when fiat currencies eventually lost it. Today, global debt has exploded to $350 trillion, while only about 25% of all fiat money is backed by the value of all the gold above ground, down from 60–100% throughout most of history. At the same time, governments continue printing money to finance ever-rising debt. China appears to understand this dynamic: it is simultaneously expanding debt and aggressively accumulating gold. If history rhymes, gold may not simply rise in price—it may be revalued as confidence in fiat currencies is tested. Source: jeroen blokland
The K-Shaped economy:
Source: Hedgeye, Bloomberg
In case you missed it... US MegaCap Tech is facing its worst month since April 2022
(and 3rd worst month ever)... Source: zerohedge
BREAKING: OpenAI advisers are pushing Sam Altman to delay its IPO until next year, per New York Times
Advisers have reportedly cautioned that OpenAI could suffer from a lack of enthusiasm from retail investors. Source: Trend Spider, NYT
Leveraged ETFs are no longer a niche product.
US-listed funds now hold around $200 billion in assets, equivalent to roughly $400 billion of market exposure, while trading volumes are running about 50% above last year's record pace. Market structure increasingly matters. Source: TME, JP Morgan
The U.S. just doubled down on quantum.
President Trump signed two executive orders to accelerate U.S. quantum technology and strengthen cybersecurity. The initiatives aim to develop a research-grade quantum computer by 2028, deploy quantum sensors and networks within five years, expand workforce training, and secure domestic supply chains. Federal systems are set to transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2031. These measures follow $2 billion in investments across nine quantum companies. The strategy highlights quantum technology’s growing importance for economic competitiveness, cybersecurity, national security, and global technological leadership.Source: Bull Theory
