Iran War Sees Lowest U.S. Approval Rating Ever
Source: Voronoi
US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026.
Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” Source: Carl Quintanilla
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
*The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1967, establishes clear procedures for presidential succession and for temporarily transferring power to the Vice President when the President is unable to discharge the duties of the office, either voluntarily (Section 3) or involuntarily via the Vice President and Cabinet (Section 4). Source: *Walter Bloomberg
The new deadline from the US President: 8PM ET on Tuesday for a deal before "“Every bridge in Iran will be decimated" by 12 midnight ET.
Source: David Ingles
Rate-change expectations for The Fed in 2026 shifted dovishly back into 'cut' territory today
Source: zerohedge
So it was just a textbook squeeze?
The short-term trendline and the 21-day MA sit slightly higher, alongside the former range lows, now acting as resistance. As there is no TACO yet and looking at futures this morning, does not seem we will go through resistance today. Source: TME
In case you missed it... The US job market continues to deteriorate
Job openings fell -358,000 in February to 6.88 million, giving back most of the January jump. The 3-month moving average continues to fall, now at ~6.89 million, now below the 2018-2019 pre-pandemic levels. There are now just 0.9 job openings for every unemployed worker, near the lowest of the current business cycle. By comparison, the ratio peaked at 2.0 in 2022, meaning available jobs per unemployed worker have been cut in half. Total separations have also dropped to a decade low, suggesting employers are neither hiring nor firing, effectively freezing the labor market in place. The job market is quietly weakening beneath the surface. Source: Global Markets Investor, wolfstreet
Maybe not the TACO everyone was expecting
S&P 500 futures are rallying following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had told aides he was willing to end military hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut. The plan to reopen the strait would stretch the conflict far beyond his projected 4-6 week timeline so instead, he’s deferring to diplomacy or shifting the burden onto allies. The United States initiated a war that shut down a critical waterway responsible for 20% of global oil shipments—and is now preparing to exit without reopening it. Five weeks. More than 3,000 dead. $200 billion requested. Over 300 Americans wounded. Oil prices have surged past $100. The risk of a global recession is climbing. Asian countries are rationing fuel. Gulf allies are enduring nightly bombardments. And the strait that sparked the entire escalation remains under Iranian control...
