Investors dumped Stocks last week at the fastest pace since March
Source: BofA, Barchart
One chart may have just revealed a major shift in the global energy order.
For the first time in history, U.S. oil exports have surpassed China's crude oil imports. At first glance, it looks like just two lines crossing on a chart. In reality, it could mark a profound structural change. For two years, China's crude imports hovered around 12–14 million barrels per day. Then they suddenly plunged to roughly 8.5 million. At the same time, U.S. oil exports, long stuck around 9–10 million barrels per day, surged above 12 million. Why? China didn't stop buying oil because demand disappeared. It stopped because supply became constrained. • Nearly 38% of China's crude imports depended on the Strait of Hormuz. • Gulf producers faced major disruptions. • Russia was already exporting at full capacity. • U.S. light sweet crude isn't an ideal substitute for many Chinese refineries. With few alternatives, China began drawing down strategic inventories instead of importing. That collapse in imports isn't necessarily a sign of weaker demand. It may be evidence of a country relying on its emergency reserves to navigate one of the biggest supply shocks in years. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters stepped in to replace part of the missing Gulf supply. Sometimes, the most important geopolitical shifts don't make the front page. They simply appear when two lines cross on a chart. Source. Jack Prandelli on X, IEA
🚨US stock market concentration has never been this extreme:
Semiconductor stocks now reflect 19.7% of the S&P 500's total market cap, the most EVER. This figure has QUADRUPLED since June 2020. As a result, every other sector combined now accounts for just 80.3% of the index, the lowest share EVER. Meanwhile, the semiconductor index, $SOX, is trading now ~70% above its 200-day moving average, the widest divergence since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. How much further can this concentration stretch before something breaks? Source: Global Markets Investor
Trump's updated portfolio
heavy on semiconductors (10% NVIDIA, 4.5% Qualcomm, 4% Micron, and 5% Intel) Source: Rand Group
JUST IN: President Trump on CNBC:
"The stock market is at an all-time high. 81 days, 81 records. Nobody's ever seen anything like it." "They have this phobia about inflation. Growth can be good for inflation. It's a shame."
US jobs report screams slowdown beneath the headline: payrolls rose just 57k, but the household survey showed employment plunging 507k and the labor force collapsing 720k.
Unemployment fell to 4.2% for the wrong reason: participation cratered to 61.5% from 61.8%. Source: Holger Zschaepitz Bloomberg
The US government just made it law that an entire generation's first savings account can be invested in one thing, and one thing only.
The stock market. No bonds, no cash, no choice. The program opens to the public on July 4, and a chipmaker just wrote the largest corporate check to fund it. “Micron has announced a HISTORIC $250 MILLION investment in TRUMP ACCOUNTS.” Micron committed 250 million dollars to Trump Accounts, the children's savings accounts created under last year's tax law. Every American child born between 2025 and 2028 receives 1,000 dollars from the federal government, deposited inside. Families can add up to 5,000 dollars a year. The money is locked until the child turns 18. And by statute, it can hold only one kind of asset: low-cost funds that track the US stock market, the S&P 500 as the model. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86
🚨 BREAKING: OpenAI is reportedly discussing giving the U.S. government a 5% equity stake.
The proposal, reportedly floated by Sam Altman, would see leading AI companies allocate a small ownership stake to the public through a vehicle similar to Alaska's Permanent Fund. The idea is simple: if AI is set to create trillions of dollars in value, the public should directly share in the upside. The move could also help ease growing political pressure as Washington scrutinizes AI over jobs, cybersecurity, data centers, and national security. OpenAI and Anthropic have already seen their latest AI models delayed by regulatory review. The proposal would ideally extend beyond OpenAI to companies such as Anthropic, Google, and Meta, although it remains unclear whether they would participate. The discussions are still at an early, conceptual stage and would likely require congressional approval. If implemented, it would mark one of the most significant shifts in the relationship between government and private technology companies, potentially creating a new model where the wealth generated by AI is shared not only with investors, but with the public itself. Source: FT
