---
title: Syz The Moment | Macroeconomics (2)
description: Macroeconomics | Syz The Moment (2)
---

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## Straight from the Desk

# **Syz** the moment

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Show more

17 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-just-raised-its-2026-growth-and-inflation-forecasts&text=The%20FED%20just%20raised%20its%202026%20growth%20and%20inflation%20forecasts>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-just-raised-its-2026-growth-and-inflation-forecasts&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1789621942467.jpg&title=The%20FED%20just%20raised%20its%202026%20growth%20and%20inflation%20forecasts&summary=GDP:%202.3%%20from%202.2%%20PCE%20inflation:%203.7%%20from%203.6%%20Core%20PCE:%203.4%%20from%203.3%%20Unemployment:%204.1%%20from%204.3%%20Source:%20Wall%20St%20Engine&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-just-raised-its-2026-growth-and-inflation-forecasts>
- <https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-just-raised-its-2026-growth-and-inflation-forecasts>

#### The FED just raised its 2026 growth and inflation forecasts

GDP: 2.3% from 2.2% PCE inflation: 3.7% from 3.6% Core PCE: 3.4% from 3.3% Unemployment: 4.1% from 4.3% Source: Wall St Engine

[#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics)

![The FED just raised its 2026 growth and inflation forecasts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789621942467.jpg)

![The FED just raised its 2026 growth and inflation forecasts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789621942467.jpg)

17 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/yesterdays-strong-august-retail-sales-report-pushed-the-atlanta-feds-gdpnow-to-5.1-for-q3-2026&text=Yesterday>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/yesterdays-strong-august-retail-sales-report-pushed-the-atlanta-feds-gdpnow-to-5.1-for-q3-2026&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1789584846047.jpg&title=Yesterday>
- <https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/yesterdays-strong-august-retail-sales-report-pushed-the-atlanta-feds-gdpnow-to-5.1-for-q3-2026>

#### Yesterday's strong August retail sales report pushed the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow to 5.1% for Q3 2026.

Restated, the economy is booming. Source: Jim Bianco

[#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics)

![Yesterday's strong August retail sales report pushed the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow to 5.1% for Q3 2026.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789584846047.jpg)

![Yesterday's strong August retail sales report pushed the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow to 5.1% for Q3 2026.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789584846047.jpg)

14 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/productivity-is-falling-below-trend&text=Productivity%20is%20falling%20below%20trend>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/productivity-is-falling-below-trend&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1789253180645.jpg&title=Productivity%20is%20falling%20below%20trend&summary="Despite%20$1.5tn%20spent%20in%20past%203%20years,%20scant%20evidence%20yet%20of%20economy-wide%20productivity%20gains;%20in%20fact,%20total%20factor%20productivity%20is%20falling%20below%20trend,%20a%20measure%20highly%20correlated%20the%20past%2050%20years%20with%20consumer%20confidence;%20sometimes%20Main%20St%20knows%20what%20Wall%20St%20doesn’t"%20-%20BofA,%20Michael%20Hartnett%20Source:%20zerohedge&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/productivity-is-falling-below-trend>
- <https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/productivity-is-falling-below-trend>

#### Productivity is falling below trend

"Despite $1.5tn spent in past 3 years, scant evidence yet of economy-wide productivity gains; in fact, total factor productivity is falling below trend, a measure highly correlated the past 50 years with consumer confidence; sometimes Main St knows what Wall St doesn’t" - BofA, Michael Hartnett Source: zerohedge

[#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states)

![Productivity is falling below trend](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789253180645.jpg)

![Productivity is falling below trend](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789253180645.jpg)

14 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-will-hike-rates-next-week-and-december-warns-jp-morgan&text=The%20Fed%20will%20hike%20rates%20next%20week%20and%20December,%20warns%20JP%20Morgan>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-will-hike-rates-next-week-and-december-warns-jp-morgan&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1789322658754.jpg&title=The%20Fed%20will%20hike%20rates%20next%20week%20and%20December,%20warns%20JP%20Morgan&summary=Source:%20BofA&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-will-hike-rates-next-week-and-december-warns-jp-morgan>
- <https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-fed-will-hike-rates-next-week-and-december-warns-jp-morgan>

#### The Fed will hike rates next week and December, warns JP Morgan

Source: BofA

[#Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics)

![The Fed will hike rates next week and December, warns JP Morgan](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789322658754.jpg)

![The Fed will hike rates next week and December, warns JP Morgan](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1789322658754.jpg)

9 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/japan-projected-to-pay-an-all-time-high-16.59-trillion-yen-108-billion-usd-in-debt-interest-next-year&text=Japan%20projected%20to%20pay%20an%20all-time%20high%2016.59%20Trillion%20Yen%20($108%20Billion%20USD)%20in%20debt%20interest%20next%20year>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/japan-projected-to-pay-an-all-time-high-16.59-trillion-yen-108-billion-usd-in-debt-interest-next-year&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1788897750350.jpg&title=Japan%20projected%20to%20pay%20an%20all-time%20high%2016.59%20Trillion%20Yen%20($108%20Billion%20USD)%20in%20debt%20interest%20next%20year&summary=Source:%20FT,%20Barchart&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/japan-projected-to-pay-an-all-time-high-16.59-trillion-yen-108-billion-usd-in-debt-interest-next-year>
- <https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/japan-projected-to-pay-an-all-time-high-16.59-trillion-yen-108-billion-usd-in-debt-interest-next-year>

#### Japan projected to pay an all-time high 16.59 Trillion Yen ($108 Billion USD) in debt interest next year

Source: FT, Barchart

[#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia)

![Japan projected to pay an all-time high 16.59 Trillion Yen ($108 Billion USD) in debt interest next year](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788897750350.jpg)

![Japan projected to pay an all-time high 16.59 Trillion Yen ($108 Billion USD) in debt interest next year](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788897750350.jpg)

8 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/ai-isnt-just-replacing-jobs.-its-creating-them&text=AI%20isn’t%20just%20replacing%20jobs.%20It’s%20creating%20them.>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/ai-isnt-just-replacing-jobs.-its-creating-them&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1788779703899.jpg&title=AI%20isn’t%20just%20replacing%20jobs.%20It’s%20creating%20them.&summary=Since%20mid-2023,%20AI%20has%20generated%20roughly%201%20million%20jobs%20in%20America—more%20than%20offsetting%20an%20estimated%20200,000%20AI-related%20losses,%20according%20to%20The%20Economist.%20Around%201%%20of%20US%20professional%20roles%20are%20now%20“AI%20jobs,”%20rising%20to%204–5%%20in%20computing%20and%20life%20sciences.%20But%20the%20biggest%20surprise%20may%20be%20outside%20software.%20AI%20infrastructure%20spending%20has%20increased%20by%20about%20$500%20billion%20annually%20since%202022.%20Data-centre%20construction%20alone%20is%20running%20above%20$75%20billion%20a%20year—creating%20demand%20for%20electricians,%20HVAC%20specialists,%20grid%20engineers%20and%20technicians.%20Meanwhile,%20supposedly%20vulnerable%20professions%20are%20still%20expanding:%20Paralegal%20employment:%20+11%%20Market-research%20analysts:%20+6%%20US%20employment%20overall:%20+2.5%%20The%20emerging%20picture%20is%20more%20nuanced%20than%20“AI%20destroys%20jobs.”%20For%20now,%20AI%20appears%20to%20be%20transforming%20work%20faster%20than%20it%20is%20eliminating%20it.%20Source:%20Bearly%20AI&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/ai-isnt-just-replacing-jobs.-its-creating-them>
- <https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/ai-isnt-just-replacing-jobs.-its-creating-them>

#### AI isn’t just replacing jobs. It’s creating them.

Since mid-2023, AI has generated roughly 1 million jobs in America—more than offsetting an estimated 200,000 AI-related losses, according to The Economist. Around 1% of US professional roles are now “AI jobs,” rising to 4–5% in computing and life sciences. But the biggest surprise may be outside software. AI infrastructure spending has increased by about $500 billion annually since 2022. Data-centre construction alone is running above $75 billion a year—creating demand for electricians, HVAC specialists, grid engineers and technicians. Meanwhile, supposedly vulnerable professions are still expanding: Paralegal employment: +11% Market-research analysts: +6% US employment overall: +2.5% The emerging picture is more nuanced than “AI destroys jobs.” For now, AI appears to be transforming work faster than it is eliminating it. Source: Bearly AI

[#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai)

![AI isn’t just replacing jobs. It’s creating them.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788779703899.jpg)

![AI isn’t just replacing jobs. It’s creating them.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788779703899.jpg)

4 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/germanys-electricity-market-is-flashing-another-warning-sign&text=Germany’s%20electricity%20market%20is%20flashing%20another%20warning%20sign.>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/germanys-electricity-market-is-flashing-another-warning-sign&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1788445016919.jpg&title=Germany’s%20electricity%20market%20is%20flashing%20another%20warning%20sign.&summary=The%20country’s%20one-year%20forward%20power%20price%20has%20surged%20to%20€122/MWh—its%20highest%20level%20since%202023.%20This%20matters%20because%20the%20contract%20is%20a%20key%20benchmark%20for%20the%20procurement%20costs%20faced%20by%20household%20electricity%20suppliers.%20The%20main%20culprit?%20Surging%20natural%20gas%20prices.%20Under%20Europe’s%20merit-order%20system,%20the%20most%20expensive%20power%20plant%20required%20to%20meet%20demand%20sets%20the%20wholesale%20electricity%20price.%20And%20that%20plant%20is%20often%20gas-fired.%20So%20even%20when%20most%20electricity%20comes%20from%20cheaper%20sources,%20rising%20gas%20prices%20can%20lift%20the%20cost%20of%20the%20entire%20power%20market.%20The%20result:%20renewed%20pressure%20on%20households,%20businesses%20and%20Germany’s%20industrial%20competitiveness.%20Source:%20HolgerZ,%20Bloomberg&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/germanys-electricity-market-is-flashing-another-warning-sign>
- <https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/germanys-electricity-market-is-flashing-another-warning-sign>

#### Germany’s electricity market is flashing another warning sign.

The country’s one-year forward power price has surged to €122/MWh—its highest level since 2023. This matters because the contract is a key benchmark for the procurement costs faced by household electricity suppliers. The main culprit? Surging natural gas prices. Under Europe’s merit-order system, the most expensive power plant required to meet demand sets the wholesale electricity price. And that plant is often gas-fired. So even when most electricity comes from cheaper sources, rising gas prices can lift the cost of the entire power market. The result: renewed pressure on households, businesses and Germany’s industrial competitiveness. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

[#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe)

![Germany’s electricity market is flashing another warning sign.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788445016919.jpg)

![Germany’s electricity market is flashing another warning sign.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788445016919.jpg)

4 Sep 2026

- <https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-us-ism-services-report-was-particularly-strong-both-overall-and-relative-to-expectations&text=The%20US%20ISM%20Services%20report%20was%20particularly%20strong,%20both%20overall%20and%20relative%20to%20expectations>
- <http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-us-ism-services-report-was-particularly-strong-both-overall-and-relative-to-expectations&submitted-image-url=https://25733253.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25733253/1788500416964.jpg&title=The%20US%20ISM%20Services%20report%20was%20particularly%20strong,%20both%20overall%20and%20relative%20to%20expectations&summary=With%20nearly%20all%20activity%20and%20price%20subcomponents%20rising%20robustly%20(employment%20being%20the%20lone%20exception).%20Notably,%20overall%20business%20activity%20expanded%20to%20a%20six-month%20high,%20new%20orders%20climbed%20to%20their%20highest%20level%20in%20over%20three%20years,%20and%20prices%20paid%20reached%20a%20four-year%20peak.%20Source:%20Bloomberg,%20Mo%20El%20Erian&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-us-ism-services-report-was-particularly-strong-both-overall-and-relative-to-expectations>
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#### The US ISM Services report was particularly strong, both overall and relative to expectations

With nearly all activity and price subcomponents rising robustly (employment being the lone exception). Notably, overall business activity expanded to a six-month high, new orders climbed to their highest level in over three years, and prices paid reached a four-year peak. Source: Bloomberg, Mo El Erian

[#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states)

![The US ISM Services report was particularly strong, both overall and relative to expectations](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788500416964.jpg)

![The US ISM Services report was particularly strong, both overall and relative to expectations](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1788500416964.jpg)

[❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/1)

[1](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/1) [2](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/2) [3](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/3) [4](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/4) [5](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/5)

[❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/3) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/168?hsLang=en)

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