Global debt is surging as governments ramp up spending on national security and economic resilience.
Nearly $29tn was added to global debt in 2025, pushing the total to a record $348tn, according to IIF. Source: IIF, HolgerZ
The EU is freezing its trade deal with the U
The main political groups in the EU Parliament suspended legislative work on ratifying the deal on Monday, seeking clarity on Trump's new tariffs. The deal has already faced a rocky path, with the US expanding its 50% metals tariff to hundreds of additional products and Trump threatening to annex Greenland. The agreement, struck last summer, would impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US while removing tariffs on US industrial goods. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
JUST IN: US Trade Deficit with China Shrinks to 21-Year Low
Source: zerohedge
The U.S. trade deficit for 2025 remained in the red at $901.5 billion
This marks one of the largest gaps in history, slightly down (0.2%) from the $903 billion recorded in 2024, despite new tariff policies. December 2025 saw a sharp 32.6% rise in the deficit to $70.3 billion due to surging imports. Source: Bloomberg
US white-collar recession is getting WORSE:
Job opening rates in key white-collar sectors are plunging to historic lows, according to BLS data. Finance and insurance rate is down to ~2%, the lowest in at least 14 years. Information sector openings are down to ~3%, near the cycle lows. Professional and business services FELL to ~4%, the 2nd-lowest in 12 years. All 3 sectors have seen openings fall -50% or more from their 2022 peaks. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
The World uncertainty index reaches the highest level in history, surpassing Covid, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Dot Com Bubble
Source: Barchart @Barchart
The K-Shaped Economy: Personal savings have dropped by -$469.2 billion since April, a decline of -37%.
The personal saving rate tumbled from 5.5% in April to 3.5% in November, the lowest since 2008, excluding the Covid-era distortions of 2020. Dwindling savings mean there’s less of a cushion to meet necessary payments, let alone make discretionary purchases. Delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to 4.8% in Q4, the highest since 2017. American's wallets are hurting. Source: Bloomberg, Hedgeye
Will Truflation prove to be correct
Truflation is a digital, real-time alternative to government inflation numbers. Unlike the traditional CPI, which updates monthly and is based on a fixed “basket of goods,” Truflation tracks millions of prices daily from sources like Amazon, Zillow, and grocery stores. It’s faster, more reflective of actual spending, and transparent because it uses blockchain technology. This means you can see changes in prices almost immediately, giving a clearer picture of how your money’s value is changing in real time.
