Syz the moment

If someone donated $1 million every single day it would take 106,849 years to pay it off. Human civilization is only 5,000 years old. Source: Bull Theory, FRED

The Core CPI number is matching forecasts and is staying below BOJ’s 2% target for a second month. Headline inflation came in at 1.5%, compared with 1.3% in February, staying below the central bank’s 2% target for a second straight month. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy, dipped to 2.4% from February’s 2.5%, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Rising oil prices have prompted government subsidies to cap gasoline costs, though these may be expensive to sustain. Analysts warn prolonged high energy prices could push core inflation toward 3%, while weakening household purchasing power. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady for now but maintain a bias toward future hikes as inflation expectations rise and economic risks persist. Source: CNBC

Watch what they do, not what they say. Note however that retail sales chart looks less fancy when you consider real data (instead of nominal) Source. Charlie Bilello

Japan, once predicted in the 1980s to eclipse the American economy, is now significantly smaller. China now appears to be on a similar trajectory. In 2021, China’s GDP had risen to 76% of that of the United States, and many analysts believed it would surpass the U.S. before 2030. That expectation has since unraveled. By 2024, the U.S. economy stood at $29.2 trillion compared to China’s $18.9 trillion—a gap that has widened for three consecutive years. Meanwhile, China’s working-age population is declining, its fertility rate has dropped to around 1.0—well below replacement level—and there is little immigration to offset the demographic decline. Yet America benefits from believing it faces a formidable rival. The belief is what keeps it competing. Source: Martin Varsavsky

It's substantially reduced Iran's oil exports (and inflow of hard currency), seized an Iranian ship and threatened secondary sanctions on Chinese banks that deal in Iranian oil. Meanwhile, oil prices are down from their highs. And the US is exporting record volume of il & gas. Kudos! Source: Robin Brooks

In 2021, China’s GDP was about 78% of the U.S.; by 2024, that share had fallen to roughly 64%, back to around 2017 levels, with the gap between the two economies doubling in just a few years. Note that we are talking about NOMINAL GDP. Over the last few years, the US has been generating inflation while China has been facing deflation or low inflation. This matters when you consider nominal GDP growth. Source: Terence Shen

Import prices jumped +16.1% MoM and +18.4% YoY in March, the largest monthly spike since January 1998. This comes as Dubai crude oil prices nearly doubled in a month, to an average of $128.52 a barrel, while the Korean won weakened -2.6% against the US Dollar over the same period. As a result, raw material import prices, including crude and other mining products, rose more than +40% MoM, with oil-related products such as naphtha and jet fuel amplifying cost pressures for manufacturers. Higher import costs will filter through to consumer prices over time, eroding household purchasing power and dragging on domestic demand and economic growth. Source: Global Markets Investor

Qatar seems to be the worst hit from the Middle East War, with recovery set for 2027. Source: Statista