Syz the moment

Indeed, the German economy is increasingly K-shaped: stock markets are rising, while consumer confidence is in free fall. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

*JAPAN NOV. CORE CPI RISES 3.0% Y/Y; EST. +3.0% *US NOV. CORE CPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +3.0% This is the first time since 1977 that Japan has a higher inflation rate than the US. (Japan includes taxes in its inflation measure. The US does not.) Source: Jim Bianco

CPI: 2.7% vs. 3.1% expected (3.0% previous) Core CPI: 2.6% vs. 3.0% expected (3.0% previous) This shows inflation is cooling down. FED now has more room for rate cuts and monetary easing. JANUARY RATE-CUT ODDS EDGE HIGHER November CPI undershot expectations, with headline inflation at 2.7% YoY and core CPI slowing to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. Markets are reacting modestly. Kalshi pricing shows the probability of a 25 bp Fed cut in January pushing higher, though a hold remains the base case. The data supports the easing trend, but January still appears borderline for action. Source: *Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

Last night, President Trump took to the airwaves for a primetime address that has everyone talking. Whether you agree with the strategy or not, there are some massive leadership lessons—and market-shifting announcements—we can’t ignore. Here is the breakdown of the "Second Term Revitalization" speech: 🚀 The Big Economic Bet: Trump is doubling down on tariffs as the engine for a "boom the likes of which the world has never seen." Despite a 3% CPI, the administration is betting on a radical shift in domestic investment. 📉 The Interest Rate Pivot: A new Federal Reserve Chair is coming. The criteria? Someone who believes in lowering rates "by a lot." This is a clear signal to the markets: the administration wants borrowing costs and mortgage payments down, now. 🎖️ The "Warrior Dividend": In a move to honor the upcoming 250th anniversary of the USA, Trump announced a $1,776 bonus for military members. A strategic play to shore up support within the ranks. 💊 Healthcare & Disruptive Innovation: Rejecting the extension of current subsidies, the plan is now direct-to-consumer. "I want the money to go directly to the people." It’s a bold move toward a market-driven healthcare model. The Reality Check: The address comes at a high-stakes moment. With a 54% disapproval rating and internal White House friction making headlines, the "rushed and combative" tone of the speech shows a leader under immense pressure to deliver results—fast. Leadership isn’t just about the vision; it’s about the execution. The world is watching to see if these "Grand Slams" translate into relief for the American household. Source: FT

The AI/Datacenter effect is clearly visible. It matched CPI until the last 5 years and is getting worse. Will consumers start to revolt? Source: JPAM, RBC

The Cold Hard Numbers: 9 Million+ US borrowers have officially missed payments. The sudden spike? It’s a year-long backlog of "shadow delinquencies" finally hitting credit reports after the credit-reporting ban expired. The Gamble: Millions strategically skipped payments, betting on forgiveness or prioritizing other spending because there was ZERO penalty. That period of consequence-free non-payment? It's over. 💸 The Economic Fallout (Why You Should Care): This isn't just a personal finance problem; it's an economic headwind that will ripple across sectors: Credit Score Devastation: Delinquencies are officially reporting. We are seeing reports of credit scores dropping by 100-170+ points overnight for once-prime borrowers. The Housing Market Freeze: A crashed credit score means no mortgage, no favorable car loan, and dramatically higher interest rates on everything else. This pulls a massive layer of demand out of the housing and auto markets—right when they need it most. The Consumer Spending Drain: As millions of Americans are forced to scramble, pay down old interest, and fix their credit, that cash is being pulled directly from the "fun" economy: restaurants, travel, and retail. It's a sudden, powerful brake on consumer growth. Source: FT, StockMarket.news

AI data centers aren’t cutting it. Source: Geiger Capital FRED

UK inflation fell sharply to 3.2% in November, well below expectations. 📉 Forecast: 3.5% 📉 October: 3.6% 📉 Actual: 3.2% Even more important: Core inflation also cooled to 3.2% Unemployment just rose to 5.1% This combo changes the game. 💷 What it means: The Bank of England is now widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75% at its meeting this Thursday. 👀 Inside the decision room: Likely a tight 5–4 vote Governor Andrew Bailey expected to be the deciding swing vote 📌 Big takeaway: Inflation is easing. The labor market is softening. The UK may be on the brink of its first rate cut cycle, and markets are watching closely. Source: CNBC