Germany creates a substantial infrastructure package and then allocate 50% of it to other purposes.
At least, that's what a study finds. Source: FT
Odds of a rate cut at Fed December meeting have increased again (70%+) but Fed officials remain divided on three questions that come down to judgment calls:
1. Will tariff-driven cost increases truly be a one-off? 2. Does weak hiring reflect a demand slump or reduced supply? 3. Are rates still restrictive?
📈 China’s Broad Money Supply Surpasses Combined U.S. and EU Since 2023
China’s broad money supply (M2) reached $39.7 trillion in September 2023, surpassing for the first time the combined total of the United States and the European Union ($39.6 trillion). By September 2025, China’s M2 had expanded further to $47.1 trillion—5.9% higher than the combined $44.5 trillion of the U.S. ($22.2 trillion) and EU ($22.3 trillion). This reflects the continued rapid expansion of China’s financial system and credit base relative to Western economies. Source: Econovis
US companies announced 153k job cuts in October, a 175% increase from a year ago.
This was the highest number of layoffs for any October in over 20 years and the most for any single month in Q4 since 2008. Source: Charlie Bilello, LSEG
🌍 G7 vs BRICS: The Global Power Shift Is On ⚖️
1️⃣ 💰 Debt: G7’s debt-to-GDP is 120%+, while BRICS sits around 60% — more fiscal freedom, less dependence on borrowing. 2️⃣ 👶 Demographics: G7 is aging fast, but BRICS nations enjoy a younger, growing workforce driving productivity and innovation. 3️⃣ ⚡ Energy Advantage: BRICS benefits from lower energy costs — a huge edge as AI ⚙️ and data centers drive up global power demand. 4️⃣ 📊 Fiscal Models: G7 relies on asset inflation & deficits to sustain wealth, while BRICS focuses on real income, production, and investment. 5️⃣ 🌏 Economic Gravity: At PPP, BRICS’ share of global GDP is set to surpass G7, shifting the world’s economic center eastward. 6️⃣ 🏅 Monetary Resilience: BRICS is exploring gold-backed systems and private gold ownership — a hedge against the West’s paper-asset dependence. 💡 Bottom line: The future of growth, energy, and real wealth is tilting east — and the world order is quietly being rewritten. ✨ Source : The Economist
Challenger Job cuts was one of the reasons for the equity market weakness yesterday..
Given the lack of government data, any report gets huge attention... Source: RBC, Bloomberg
Treasury TGA is about to break $1T. Only time bigger was during C-19.
Treasury can’t spend because of shut down. QT ends in December, $70B of buying per month. Potential liquidity tsunami is about to hit the system
💥 U.S. household debt just hit another record.
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 report shows total household debt rising $197 billion (+1%) to a new all-time high of $18.59 trillion. Here’s the breakdown 👇 🏠 Housing debt: $13.5T 💳 Non-housing debt: $5.1T Key highlights: 🏡 Mortgage balances up $137B → now $13.07T Delinquency: 0.83% (barely up from 0.82%) 💳 Credit card balances up $24B → now $1.23T Delinquency: 12.41%, highest since 2011 🚨 🚗 Auto loans steady at $1.66T 🎓 Student loans up $15B → $1.65T 90+ day delinquencies at 9.4% — surging after repayment resumed 🏡 HELOCs up $11B → $422B 🧾 In total: Non-housing balances rose 1% from last quarter. 📉 Consumer bankruptcies: 141,600 — the most since 2020. 🔍 What’s happening: “Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said the NY Fed’s Donghoon Lee. True — but under the surface, cracks are widening. Credit card delinquencies are the highest in 14 years. Student loan defaults are accelerating — especially among borrowers 50+, where 1 in 5 loans is now delinquent. Mortgage resilience is holding — for now — but that may change if housing prices slip and credit tightens. 🧠 Big picture: Consumers are tapped out. The pandemic-era cushion is gone. Credit limits are rising, but so are missed payments.
