Rates Traders Target Dovish Policy Shift Under a Warsh-Led Fed
➡ Since Trump’s Friday announcement, flows in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate — which closely tracks the central bank’s path — have reflected bets on a more dovish tilt once Warsh takes his post in time for the Fed’s June meeting. Source: Christophe Barraud @C_Barraud on X, Bloomberg
In case you missed it French Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Sinks to Five-Year Low
Source : Bloomberg
The Fed just hit the "Pause" button. 🛑
After three straight cuts, the FOMC is holding rates at 3.5%–3.75%. But the real story isn't the percentage—it’s the pressure. Here is what you need to know about the shift in DC today: 🔹 The "Labor Scare" is over: The Fed removed the language suggesting they're worried about the job market. They now see risks as "balanced." 🔹 Inflation is sticky: With growth tracking at a massive 5.4%, the Fed is worried about a second wave of price hikes. 🔹 A House Divided: Two Trump-appointed governors (Miran and Waller) dissented, pushing for more cuts despite the hold. 🔹 The End of an Era: Jerome Powell has only two meetings left. Between DOJ subpoenas over office renovations and a Supreme Court battle over firing governors, the Fed’s independence is being tested like never before. The big question for the markets: Who takes the wheel next? 🏎️ Prediction markets are currently betting on BlackRock’s Rick Rieder to succeed Powell. Below is the Fed statement with changes in red Source: CNBC
Might be a bit early to say if Truflation works but if it does, this looks pretty good. Here's why Truflation could the "anti-CPI" index disrupting economic forecasting
1. Goodbye Surveys, Hello Big Data 📡 The official CPI relies on manual surveys and "judgmental adjustments." Truflation uses 18 million+ data points in real-time. It scrapes e-commerce APIs, transit data, and housing aggregates every 24 hours. 2. The "45-Day Edge" 🏃💨 Traditional inflation data is a rearview mirror. Truflation acts as a leading indicator, often sniffing out price pivots 45 days before they hit government reports. 3. Censorship-Resistant Math ⛓️ Ever feel like the "official" numbers don't match your receipt? Truflation puts its data on-chain (via Chainlink). It’s immutable. No "seasonal adjustments" or political massaging—just pure, transparent code. 4. The Current Reality (Jan 2026) 📊 While headlines debate the latest "sticky" CPI prints, Truflation’s dashboard often shows a different story: Official CPI: Hovering around 2.3% Truflation: Currently tracking closer to 1.7% The Takeaway: In a world of high-frequency trading and instant supply chain shifts, "monthly" is the new "obsolete." By the way, hashtag#blockchain is the structural backbone of Truflation. While it collects data from traditional sources (like e-commerce sites and retailers), it uses blockchain to ensure that data is verifiable, transparent, and tamper-proof. The ecosystem has its own native token ($TRUF) which handles the "business" side of the data: - Staking: Node operators (the people running the computers that verify the data) must stake tokens as collateral to ensure they provide honest numbers. - Governance: Token holders can vote on things like which new data categories should be added or how the inflation formula should be weighted. - Payments: Users often pay in tokens to access premium, high-speed data streams Source chart: Bloomberg, RBC
Foreign ownership of US debt rises to an all-time high.
Source: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA Bloomberg
Us inflation is now at 1.2% according to truflation
Source: Anthony Pompliano
The EU owns 40% of us debt
Source: Bloomberg
GS says very small effects of the 10% tariff on Europe
"While implementation is highly uncertain, we estimate that a 10% tariff would lower real GDP in the affected European countries by 0.1-0.2% via lower exports. The inflation effects would likely be very small and a Taylor rule would point to modestly lower policy rates, all else equal." Source: TME
