China’s GDP grew 4.5% in the October to December period, slowing from 4.8% in the third quarter, the weakest in nearly three years as consumption misses forecasts
Full-year economic output came in at 5%, meeting the official target of around 5%. Retail sales grew 0.9% in December from a year earlier, the slowest growth since late 2022. Industrial output climbed 5.2% in December, topping expectations for a 5% growth. Source: CNBC
The K-shaped economy is becoming even more K-shaped...
The shift towards capital away from labor is one of the reason Source chart: Blackrock
China last year registered the lowest number of births since records began
This marks the fourth consecutive year of population decline as policymakers grapple with a demographic crisis. Source: FT
Total Repo Exposure has reached an all-time high of $12.6 Trillion
Source: barchart
% of subprime auto loans that are 60 days or more overdue on their payments hit an all-time high of 6.65%
Source: Barchart
The Great American Oil Paradox
The U.S. is executing a unique energy “double-play,” exporting massive amounts of light, sweet shale crude while still importing heavy, sour oil to match its legacy refinery infrastructure. This paradox being both a top exporter and importer makes the country the central hinge of the global oil market. Far from a weakness, this interdependence gives the U.S. leverage, allowing it to balance supply and influence prices worldwide as we head into 2026. Source: Jack Prandelli
Believe it or not, investor's positioning on equities is still not over-extended.
Deutsche Bank: "Notably, while investor sentiment has risen meaningfully over the last 6 weeks, positioning in our reading has not yet followed, with discretionary investors are still holding cautiously near neutral (0.09sd, 51st percentile). Systematic strategy positioning though is higher (0.71sd, 82nd percentile)." Source: DB, TME
Bitcoin becomes King in Iran
As Iran’s currency collapses, Bitcoin is shifting from a theoretical hedge to a practical necessity. Hyperinflation in the rial is pushing citizens toward BTC as a store of value, while sanctions have made crypto an effective alternative to the traditional banking system. At the same time, Iran’s extremely cheap energy makes Bitcoin mining highly profitable, sustaining local supply that feeds sanction-bypassing channels. The combination of fiat collapse, sanctions, and energy arbitrage is driving a sharp surge in Bitcoin adoption and pricing relative to the rial. Source: Mario Nawfal
