On the other side of the world, China’s economic signals are shifting.
While trade dynamics fluctuate, attention is turning to its energy position. Estimates suggest China holds roughly 1.4 billion barrels in oil reserves—enough to cover about six months in a worst-case disruption scenario . At the same time, efforts by BRICS nations to move away from the U.S. dollar in oil trade have made limited progress, with the dollar still dominating global transactions. China has long relied on discounted oil imports from countries like Iran and Venezuela, but geopolitical pressures may complicate that strategy. Amid global tensions and proxy conflicts, the broader strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China remains a defining theme. Source: NY Times, Rothmus on X
US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside.
That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowicz
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.
Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money. Source: Charlie Bilello
Young talents, don't believe all the negative headlines of AI killing jobs for graduates. Unemployment rate for 20-24 years in the US is actually plummeting...
Source: BofA
Market based inflation expectations are rising across the curve (1,2,5,10 year).
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
The US government is accepting donations to pay off its $39 trillion debt.
If someone donated $1 million every single day it would take 106,849 years to pay it off. Human civilization is only 5,000 years old. Source: Bull Theory, FRED
Japan's core inflation accelerated for the first time in five months, rising to 1.8% in March (versus +1.6% seen in February) as the Iran war fuels worries around energy prices.
The Core CPI number is matching forecasts and is staying below BOJ’s 2% target for a second month. Headline inflation came in at 1.5%, compared with 1.3% in February, staying below the central bank’s 2% target for a second straight month. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy, dipped to 2.4% from February’s 2.5%, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Rising oil prices have prompted government subsidies to cap gasoline costs, though these may be expensive to sustain. Analysts warn prolonged high energy prices could push core inflation toward 3%, while weakening household purchasing power. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady for now but maintain a bias toward future hikes as inflation expectations rise and economic risks persist. Source: CNBC
In case you missed it... US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in history.
Watch what they do, not what they say. Note however that retail sales chart looks less fancy when you consider real data (instead of nominal) Source. Charlie Bilello
