In August '25, German industrial production collapsed 4.3% m/m.
Germany is headed for the third consecutive recession year. To Dr Polleit, the "Great Reset" is destroying industrual production and economic growth in Germany. ➡️ Polleit is a German economist affiliated with the Austrian School of economics, and president of the Ludwig von Mises Institut Deutschland. Mises Institute. He is strongly skeptical of state intervention, central banking, fiat money, and what he sees as coercive economic planning ➡️Polleit general critiques on Germany are the following: 👉 Heavy regulation, strong state involvement 👉Germany’s ambitious transition from fossil fuels to renewables may cause disruptions in energy supply, cost volatility, grid stresses, and increase production costs 👉Export dependence and global competition 👉Monetary and fiscal pressures reduce real returns on capital and discourage long-term investment. 👉Uncertainty and investment risk 👉With more government programs, state investment, subsidies, and oversight, private actors may be crowded out or discouraged. Polleit would claim that entrepreneurship and innovation decline. 👉Central planning or incentive distortions lead to misallocation of capital. Polleit warns that “green subsidies” or mandated transitions may favor politically connected actors rather than the most efficient ones. 🚨 Hence, under Polleit’s logic, Germany — already having high regulation, energy transition burdens, export dependency, and significant state involvement — would be particularly vulnerable to further growth suppression from Great Reset-type policies. He would argue that growth is slowly being “destroyed” by compounding layers of regulatory, monetary, and fiscal drag. Source: Thorsten Polleit @ThorstenPolleit on X
Carlyle Group says the US job market is absolutely finished.
Source: Bloomberg, Spencer Hakimian
From the FT article on “Labour markets stuck in a ‘low hire, low fire’ cycle”:
“Labour markets in many leading economies are freezing up as uncertainty over trade, tax and artificial intelligence causes employers to put off hiring and firing and employees to stick with their jobs.”
There are now 157k more Unemployed Persons than Job Openings in the US.
Excluding the 2020 recession, this is the widest spread we've seen since 2017. Labor market continues to cool... Source: Charlie Bilello
According to CME Fed watch tool, odds of a Fed rate cut in October are now 99%...
So done deal after the poor ADP payrolls numbers...
FedWatch shows a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in October.
Source: CME FedWatch
Global Debt hits new all-time high of $338 Trillion 🚨🚨🚨
Source: Barchart
This morning’s surprisingly negative ADP data comes at a tricky time, with Friday’s jobs report at risk from the shutdown.
Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in two-and-a-half years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Companies shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs during the month, the biggest slide since March 2023, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000. The report comes as the funding impasse in Washington, D.C. has led to the first government closure since late 2018 into early 2019. Failing a deal over the next two days, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report for September will not be released, nor will the Labor Department put out the weekly jobless claims count on Thursday. The last time the BLS payrolls report was delayed was in 2013. Source: CNBC, Bloomberg, @M_McDonough on X
