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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 14 Jul 2026 - - - #### Very cool prices in the June CPI were across the board. US Headline inflation (CPI) comes in lower than expected, at 3.5% vs expected 3.8%. This is the biggest drop in MoM headline CPI (-0.4%) since covid crash. It is also much lower than expected (-0.1%). Core CPI is also the lowest since covid at +2.6% yoy (vs. +2.8% expected). The core CPI \*declined\* on a MoM basis, falling -0.02%. This is the first MoM drop since May 2020. Source: Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Very cool prices in the June CPI were across the board.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jul-14-2026-03-46-17-2319-PM.jpg) ![Very cool prices in the June CPI were across the board.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/3-Jul-14-2026-03-46-17-2319-PM.jpg) 14 Jul 2026 - - - #### US 2 year yield is tumbling -7 basis points as US CPI number came in cooler than expected. Odds of a July rate hike are now 14% (vs. 45% this morning). Source: www.investing.com, CME Fed Watch tool [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![US 2 year yield is tumbling -7 basis points as US CPI number came in cooler than expected.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/2-Jul-14-2026-03-45-27-4107-PM.jpg) ![US 2 year yield is tumbling -7 basis points as US CPI number came in cooler than expected.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/2-Jul-14-2026-03-45-27-4107-PM.jpg) 10 Jul 2026 - - - #### EU Goods Trade Deficit with China Nears Record €376 Billion The European Union's goods trade with China totaled €768 billion in the twelve months ending April 2026, with €572 billion in imports and €196 billion in exports. The resulting €376 billion trade deficit was the second largest on record, underscoring Europe's continued dependence on Chinese manufactured goods despite efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce strategic vulnerabilities. Source: Econovis [#Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) ![EU Goods Trade Deficit with China Nears Record €376 Billion](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jul-10-2026-02-43-43-8232-PM.jpg) ![EU Goods Trade Deficit with China Nears Record €376 Billion](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jul-10-2026-02-43-43-8232-PM.jpg) 10 Jul 2026 - - - #### 🚨 The labor market still refuses to crack.\* Initial jobless claims remain stuck in a remarkably stable range of 200,000–230,000, while continuing claims are hovering around 1.8 million. For more than two years, recession fears have dominated headlines. Yet the one indicator that typically flashes red before a downturn still isn't doing it. Yes, workers who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new ones, pushing continuing claims higher. But companies are not laying off employees at the pace you would expect ahead of a recession. That's the key distinction. 📌 The labor market is cooling, not collapsing. For the Federal Reserve, that's an important signal. As long as layoffs remain contained, policymakers can stay focused on inflation instead of rushing to support the economy. Jobless claims remain one of the strongest pieces of evidence that the U.S. economy is slowing—but not yet heading into an imminent recession. Source: YCC Macro [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![🚨 The labor market still refuses to crack.\*](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jul-10-2026-02-34-15-3205-PM.jpg) ![🚨 The labor market still refuses to crack.\*](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jul-10-2026-02-34-15-3205-PM.jpg) 9 Jul 2026 - - - #### In case you missed it... China's factory inflation hits a near 4-year high. China's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY in June, the highest reading since July 2022 and the 4th consecutive monthly increase. Consumer inflation slowed to 1.0% from 1.2% in May, highlighting weak domestic demand even as manufacturers face rising input costs. Higher energy prices during the Iran conflict were the main reason producer prices increased. Source: Bull Theory, FT [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) ![In case you missed it... China's factory inflation hits a near 4-year high.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jul-09-2026-03-37-19-0480-PM.jpg) ![In case you missed it... China's factory inflation hits a near 4-year high.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jul-09-2026-03-37-19-0480-PM.jpg) 3 Jul 2026 - - - #### US jobs report screams slowdown beneath the headline: payrolls rose just 57k, but the household survey showed employment plunging 507k and the labor force collapsing 720k. Unemployment fell to 4.2% for the wrong reason: participation cratered to 61.5% from 61.8%. Source: Holger Zschaepitz Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![US jobs report screams slowdown beneath the headline: payrolls rose just 57k, but the household survey showed employment plunging 507k and the labor force collapsing 720k.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Jul-03-2026-02-30-13-4474-PM.jpg) ![US jobs report screams slowdown beneath the headline: payrolls rose just 57k, but the household survey showed employment plunging 507k and the labor force collapsing 720k.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Jul-03-2026-02-30-13-4474-PM.jpg) 2 Jul 2026 - - - #### The U.S. financial activities and information sectors are shedding almost 30,000 jobs a month so far in 2026, recession-level figures equivalent to a 20% drag on broader job growth. Finance in particular is heavily exposed to automation given its job mix. Source: Matthew B @boes\_ Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![The U.S. financial activities and information sectors are shedding almost 30,000 jobs a month so far in 2026, recession-level figures equivalent to a 20% drag on broader job growth.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Jul-02-2026-02-46-03-7044-PM.jpg) ![The U.S. financial activities and information sectors are shedding almost 30,000 jobs a month so far in 2026, recession-level figures equivalent to a 20% drag on broader job growth.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Jul-02-2026-02-46-03-7044-PM.jpg) 2 Jul 2026 - - - #### The U.S. labor market just sent its weakest signal in months. June payrolls rose by only 57,000, well below expectations of 115,000 and down sharply from May's revised 129,000. At first glance, the unemployment rate improved to 4.2%. But the headline masks growing weakness. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021, while household employment plunged by 507,000 people in a single month. Wage growth remained resilient, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, suggesting inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared. Under the surface, the picture is mixed: 📈 Professional & business services: +36K 📈 Social assistance: +25K 📈 Healthcare: +22K 📈 Government: +8K But leisure & hospitality LOST 61,000 jobs 🚨, despite expectations that the World Cup would boost seasonal hiring. The labor market is no longer collapsing. But it is clearly cooling. For the Fed, this report strengthens the case that growth is slowing, even if wage pressures remain sticky. Source: CNBC [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![The U.S. labor market just sent its weakest signal in months.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1782997081080.jpg) ![The U.S. labor market just sent its weakest signal in months.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1782997081080.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/8) [7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/7) [8](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/8) [9](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/9) [10](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/10) [11](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/11) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/10) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics/page/170?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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