This monetary policy cycle is much less synchronized than it used to be
Source: Mo El-Erian
🤯 The Hidden Engine Powering the US Economy
Everyone is talking about interest rates and inflation, but here’s the underappreciated truth: The average US household’s net worth has silently exploded thanks to unbelievable equity returns over the last five years. 📈 That extra few hundred dollars on discretionary spending? It’s mentally offset by a stock portfolio that's sitting significantly higher. The Takeaway: This "wealth effect" isn't just a coincidence, it's likely among the reasons why the long-predicted recession keeps failing to materialize. When people feel richer, they spend! Source: Boring_Business @BoringBiz_
US Trade Deficit in Goods & Services...
First 9 months of 2024: –$653 billion deficit. First 9 months of 2025: –$766 billion deficit. +17% YoY 🚨 Record high. Source: Charlie Bilello
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury just bought back $12.5 billion of their own debt, equaling their largest buyback in history (which happened last week) 🤯👀
Source: Barchart
1) Repo fixed ✔️ : Fed launches Reserve Management Purchases (liquidity injections)
2) Treasury cash flood begins ✔️ : TGA balance down $78BN in one week (3rd biggest liquidity injection of 2025) 3) Meltup ✔️: stocks close at all time high Source: zerohedge
Here it is…
Fed’s first month of T-Bill purchases. $40 BILLION over the next month. Starts today at 9am.
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.2 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised back in July.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Powell the Provider.
Today was the 11th time since 1994 that the Federal Reserve cut rates when the S&P 500 was within 1% of a 52-week high. Nine of those cuts have occurred under Powell. Source: Bespoke @bespokeinvest
