Here's a chart that shows the US labor market is improving - and not deteriorating.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey saw a rise in the number of firms who plan to increase employment versus decrease employment. Over the last 6 months, the rate-of-change exceeds 96% of all periods since 1985. Source: Jeff Weniger
"Low hire, low fire... low quitting"
In the US, number of quits plunges to 5 years low, as hiring slide accelerates Source: zerohedge
Consumer confidence down, stock market up
A K-shaped economy captured in one chart. (via Bianco Research thru HolgerZ)
Federal Reserve expected to begin buying back an all-time high $45 billion of debt each month beginning in January 🤯👀
Source: Barchart
"One of the more straightforward ways to show debasement is via the price of Campbell’s tomato soup."
"Rather than relying on a complex set of estimates and substitutions, it’s just a history record of what the same can of soup cost over time.” Source: Lyn Alden thru The Long View @HayekAndKeynes
Politico released a poll yesterday with these alarming results:
Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters. Americans also say that the affordability crisis is Trump’s responsibility, with 46 percent saying it is his economy now and his administration is responsible for the costs they struggle with. Source: Bianco Research
Is the US economy in the early innings of re-accelerating?
Temporary hiring has re-accelerated, which is an early cycle indicator. Source: Steno Research, Macrobond
In Germany, Chancellor Merz is under growing pressure as business leaders warn that the country is in “free fall.”
Peter Leibinger, head of the powerful BDI industry group, cautioned that every month w/o real structural reforms costs Germany jobs & prosperity – and sharply limits the government’s ability to act in the future. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
